Ao minuto: EUA atacam Irão. Teerão perto de fechar Estreito de Ormuz

[Camisa Roxa]

Gosto destes analistas do Real Money

É esse o meu espírito:

"That means I'll hold on to Broadcom in my Action Alerts PLUS account even though I know it shouldn't be this high because I know that as the process plays out, I will be able to sell it higher."

Não interessa os fundamentais se a acção tem um momentum tal que só pode subir! É comprar alto para vender mais alto a outro sucker, é passar a batata quente a outro (até ela explodir!, mas isso resolve-se com um bom stop)

Cumprimentos!

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Analysts, Hedge Funds Had Broadcom Wrong"

By James J. Cramer
07/08/2003 11:22 AM EDT


"Broadcom defines the struggle that many of us are feeling right now.

I bought the stock. I bought it because I looked at the stock when it was at $17 and realized that most analysts hated it! They had it as sells. Most hedge funds hated it because they liked Henry Nicholas and he had left, and they saw all of the insider selling that was happening. (When you're a hedge fund, you always get an early call on this kind of stuff and traders were breathlessly telling people that the insiders were selling millions of shares.)


When you get that combination of hedge fund and analyst hatred, you know you're going to have short-sellers galore. When you looked at the product portfolio of Broadcom, though, you could see that it could own wireless and enterprise if things got better.

They did.

Now, one by one, the analysts who hated it have been coming around. They can't go from sell to buy. They have to go from sell to hold to buy. That process will take forever. Lehman's Arnab Chanda fortunately never had it as a sell, unlike some other hapless folks. But when he went from hold to buy today, he moved the stock up a buck and a quarter.

That process will no doubt be repeated three or four times between now and when Broadcom reports its excellent quarter, which will be much better than the Street consensus, because the consensus was arrived at during the trough.

So analysts are upgrading and short-sellers are capitulating -- what's not to like?

Well, how about the multiple? This sucker is selling at 77 times 2003 earnings. It is trading at 50 times next year's earnings. Let's say those earnings next year are grossly low. Let's say they will be double what they are -- it's pretty unrealistic, but go with me on this. It is still selling at 25 times next year's dream earnings.

In other words, it is trading too high. But if you are an analyst, what are you going to do? Keep it as a sell? Keep it as a hold even though it has more earnings momentum than any other stock in the group?


Of course not. You upgrade. And every time there's an upgrade, the stock will go higher. That means I'll hold on to Broadcom in my Action Alerts PLUS account even though I know it shouldn't be this high because I know that as the process plays out, I will be able to sell it higher.

Tough dilemma. No discipline on valuation, but tremendous discipline vis-a-vis the process. In these cases, process trumps valuation.

So I hold on. "

(in www.realmoney.com)