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[Ulisses Pereira]

"Looking Forward to the Second Half"

By James J. Cramer
07/07/2003 10:37 AM EDT


"The contrast between last year and this year keeps surprising me positively. Last year, Microsoft figured it could stand there and buy shares, something that did nothing for the stock. This year, there are rumors of a $10 billion special dividend.

Last year, when a company had accounting problems, you figured it was over. This year, Freddie Mac has an accounting problem and I am beginning to believe that it is a positive, not a negative. I am not being facetious; this stock should be higher.


Last year, we had cable desolation. This year, cable pricing and cable modems are rocking.

Last year, we had banks blowing up before they reported. This year, I bet the banks will report gigantic upside surprises.

Last year, we had worries about company after company struggling to meet pension plan obligations. This year, we have come up with a solution: the big bond deal.

Last year, we didn't trust the financials. This year, we think the financials are the most scrubbed we can recall.

Last year, we had massive fear of bankruptcies. This year, bankruptcy is the exception.

Last year, we had a massive number of new lows and no new highs. This year, we have a massive number of new highs and no new lows.

But one thing hasn't turned around. We have more skepticism now than we did then! We have more people wringing their hands and shorting and blasting the market than at any time I can recall last year. It's just nuts!

That's the reason I continue to believe that we are on course to make a huge amount of money in this second half of the year. And I continue to believe that any decline here would be a nice gift for those many, many people still not in. "

(in www.realmoney.com)