S&P 500 "sistema ferrari"
Killa Escreveu:salvadorveiga Escreveu:e' imperial derrubar, ali o suporte do canal... e duvido que por agr quebre...
esta descida e' tudo menos impulsiva...
concordo, os bulls ao longo desta subida tem criado linhas e canais de suporte muito fortes e quando se veem ameaçados fazem tudo por tudo para essas linhas nao serem quebradas, agora vamos ver até quando.
Eu pessoalmente acima 880 viro bull, até lá sou bear até aos pescoço
ps: a descida parece-me impulsiva as velas horarias estao engraçadas
abraços
A subida que vem desde do dia 21 é não tem nada de impulsiva.
AA
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salvadorveiga Escreveu:e' imperial derrubar, ali o suporte do canal... e duvido que por agr quebre...
esta descida e' tudo menos impulsiva...
concordo, os bulls ao longo desta subida tem criado linhas e canais de suporte muito fortes e quando se veem ameaçados fazem tudo por tudo para essas linhas nao serem quebradas, agora vamos ver até quando.
Eu pessoalmente acima 880 viro bull, até lá sou bear até aos pescoço
ps: a descida parece-me impulsiva as velas horarias estao engraçadas
abraços
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e pronto lá continuamos a saga, os mercados teimam em nao cair, abrem de manha bem no vermelho fecham no verde,vao depenando os bears e rumando para norte.
É a grande lição os mercados normalmente nao fazem aquilo que esperamos, ha semanas que é esperada a dita correcção mas é so ameaças.
As noticias sejam boas ou más os mercados sobem, vivemos momentos unicos de euforia, qualquer queda serve para reforçar e fazer novas compras, autenticos baloes de oxigenio, quando se acabarem as balas dos bulls isto vai ser feio, nao se sabe é quando.
será que é hoje??nao sei eu reforcei os curtos nos 866 com stop nos 880. sai mais 1 cunha
, no dow temos outra, portanto lets wait and see
abraços e bons negocios
É a grande lição os mercados normalmente nao fazem aquilo que esperamos, ha semanas que é esperada a dita correcção mas é so ameaças.
As noticias sejam boas ou más os mercados sobem, vivemos momentos unicos de euforia, qualquer queda serve para reforçar e fazer novas compras, autenticos baloes de oxigenio, quando se acabarem as balas dos bulls isto vai ser feio, nao se sabe é quando.
será que é hoje??nao sei eu reforcei os curtos nos 866 com stop nos 880. sai mais 1 cunha
, no dow temos outra, portanto lets wait and see
abraços e bons negocios
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|sector automóvel| Investidores de Obrigações da GM acham que esta última operação de emissão de dívida não deve ter muito sucesso.
deve ser esta noticia que está a puxar agora os mercados para baixo...
eu bem estava a ver muito pouco volume nesta subida vertiginosa desde o inicio... mas como nos ultimos tempos é só surpresas... já nao digo nada...
deve ser esta noticia que está a puxar agora os mercados para baixo...
eu bem estava a ver muito pouco volume nesta subida vertiginosa desde o inicio... mas como nos ultimos tempos é só surpresas... já nao digo nada...
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qual será o banco que precisa de mais cash?
By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report
Only one of the 19 financial institutions that received a bank stress test would require additional capital, the controversial government initiative has reportedly concluded.
The identity of the bank that is alleged to have failed the bank stress test was not revealed.
The bank-stress-test findings were reported yesterday (Sunday) by CNBC.com, which said it obtained the information from a source that it did not identify. The source did not identify the company, CNBC.com reported.
“At least one firm – under the [bank] stress test assumptions – will require more capital,” the source said.
The bank-stress-test results were contained in a two-dozen-page report that the government released Friday. But the results had already been “conveyed” to the firms, meaning the bank in question is aware of the U.S. central bank’s assessment, according to the published report.
This round of bank stress tests was essentially a two-step process. The first step – outlining how the banks have been analyzed – was taken care of with the report released over the weekend. The second step – releasing the results to the public – will be taken care of when the actual results are released May 4, which is one week from today (Monday).
Neither the U.S. Federal Reserve nor the U.S. Treasury Department would comment.
The bank stress tests have a very specific purpose. Financial institutions that are found to have inadequate capital will have six months to raise the money via the private sector. If that doesn’t work, the government has said the financial institutions will be eligible for an infusion of capital via the federal government’s so-called “Capital Access Program.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he would be open to banks repaying their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans, as long as the availability of credit (borrowing) was not adversely affected. As a Money Morning special report detailed last week, the credit markets don’t seem to be loosening up: Lending dropped by more than 20% from October 2008 to February 2009, despite initiatives to encourage such activity.
According to the conclusion of the report released over the weekend, “most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts needed to be well capitalized.”
However, as Money Morning has reported, the tests have become a “no-win” situation for the Obama administration.
“There are two things that are terribly wrong,” William M. Isaac, the Secura Group chairman who served as head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985, told CNBC.com. The first problem – and a big one – is the fact that the details were announced at all.
“I can’t imagine what Treasury was thinking when it made that move. It has been causing incredible angst in the markets,” said Isaac. “The second big problem is that the Treasury is directing the stress testing, apparently with direct involvement of the White House at the highest levels. Bank regulation by law is supposed to be carried out by the independent banking agencies without any political interference.”
By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report
Only one of the 19 financial institutions that received a bank stress test would require additional capital, the controversial government initiative has reportedly concluded.
The identity of the bank that is alleged to have failed the bank stress test was not revealed.
The bank-stress-test findings were reported yesterday (Sunday) by CNBC.com, which said it obtained the information from a source that it did not identify. The source did not identify the company, CNBC.com reported.
“At least one firm – under the [bank] stress test assumptions – will require more capital,” the source said.
The bank-stress-test results were contained in a two-dozen-page report that the government released Friday. But the results had already been “conveyed” to the firms, meaning the bank in question is aware of the U.S. central bank’s assessment, according to the published report.
This round of bank stress tests was essentially a two-step process. The first step – outlining how the banks have been analyzed – was taken care of with the report released over the weekend. The second step – releasing the results to the public – will be taken care of when the actual results are released May 4, which is one week from today (Monday).
Neither the U.S. Federal Reserve nor the U.S. Treasury Department would comment.
The bank stress tests have a very specific purpose. Financial institutions that are found to have inadequate capital will have six months to raise the money via the private sector. If that doesn’t work, the government has said the financial institutions will be eligible for an infusion of capital via the federal government’s so-called “Capital Access Program.”
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said he would be open to banks repaying their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans, as long as the availability of credit (borrowing) was not adversely affected. As a Money Morning special report detailed last week, the credit markets don’t seem to be loosening up: Lending dropped by more than 20% from October 2008 to February 2009, despite initiatives to encourage such activity.
According to the conclusion of the report released over the weekend, “most banks currently have capital levels well in excess of the amounts needed to be well capitalized.”
However, as Money Morning has reported, the tests have become a “no-win” situation for the Obama administration.
“There are two things that are terribly wrong,” William M. Isaac, the Secura Group chairman who served as head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985, told CNBC.com. The first problem – and a big one – is the fact that the details were announced at all.
“I can’t imagine what Treasury was thinking when it made that move. It has been causing incredible angst in the markets,” said Isaac. “The second big problem is that the Treasury is directing the stress testing, apparently with direct involvement of the White House at the highest levels. Bank regulation by law is supposed to be carried out by the independent banking agencies without any political interference.”
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Richard shaw, coloca o indice num range entre os 650 e os 800 pontos...
Based on US and world nominal GDP growth rates from 1981 through 2008, we make a case for the likely price of the S&P 500 between 650 and 800.
The Facts:
One problem with financial analysis is the mixing of facts with opinions and failing to note which is which. To try to avoid that problem, this section contains only what we would call facts — actual historical index prices and actual compound growth rates between prices over various periods; and actual US and world GDP levels and the compound growth rates between them over various periods.
Let’s begin with US and world GDP figures.
From year-end 1981 through year-end 2008, the compound annual growth rate (”CAGR”) of US nominal GDP was 5.78%. The real GDP growth rate was 2.96%.
From year-end 1981 through year-end 2008, the CAGR of world nominal GDP was 6.19%. The real GDP growth rate was 1.37%.
The raw data came form the IMF “World Economic Outlook” and the CAGR came from using the XIRR function in Excel.
Now let’s look at the S&P 500 price level changes.
We used the XIRR function to calculate the S&P price CAGR (not total return) from various starting points with data beginning as early as 1926, through the high reached on October 11, 2007 and through the recent low reached on March 6, 2009.
click image to enlarge
Effective rate of price return from December 1981 at various hypothetical current index price levels:
(as of April 24, 2009)
600 — 5.99%
650 — 6.30%
700 — 6.59%
750 — 6.86%
800 — 7.11%
850 — 7.35%
900 — 7.58%
950 — 7.79%
1000 — 7.99%
1050 — 8.19%
Effective rate of price return from 10-year average centered at December 1981 to various hypothetical current index price levels:
(as of April 24, 2009)
600 — 5.43%
650 — 5.74%
700 — 6.03%
750 — 6.30%
800 — 6.55%
850 — 6.79%
900 — 7.01%
950 — 7.22%
1000 — 7.42%
1050 — 7.61%
Interpretation of the Facts:
It is unlikely, in our view, that the vast bulk of the value of the US stock market (e.g. S&P 500 index) can persistently grow for long periods (e.g 27 + years since 1981) at a rate that is greater than the rate of the entire US and world economies (e.g. their nominal GDPs).
Since the US and world nominal GDPs from 1981 have been 5.78% and 6.19% respectively, those rates of growth would seem to be reasonable limits, or at least central tendencies, for the growth rate of the S&P 500 index price level.
In fact, we think, it is overreaching to assume that the S&P 500 price level could reach those growth rates, because the price level does not consider dividends that contribute roughly 1/3 of total return over long periods, according to our research and the research of others.
So, giving the index the benefit of the doubt (that it’s price could match US and world GDP while also generating substantial dividends), the current reasonable price level for the S&P 500 index may well be between 650 and 800.
Prior Probing for Likely S&P 500 Index Level:
In prior articles, we have used long-term charts (some over 80 years), historical valuation multiples, historical earnings, current earnings, projected earnings, normalized earnings, operating earnings and “as reported” earnings; as well as price-to-book, price-to-sales, and index-market-cap-to-national-GDP to try to get a handle on where the price of the S&P 500 makes the most sense.
Markets Are a Mixed Bag (April 18, 2009): plausible index value 400 to 925, based on various valuation methods reported in the March 9 Barron’s
Multi-Year Fundamental Valuation (April 6, 2009): plausible index value 500 to 1000, based on multi-year normalized earnings and historical normalized P/E ratio
Fundamental S&P 500 Index Price Projections (April 4, 2009): plausible index value 500 to 1200, based on different analysts use of different assumptions and methods
S&P 500 Trends: 1980 - 2009 (March 13, 2009): plausible index value 735 to 980, based on 30-year chart trend analysis
Price Targets for SPY (September 29, 2009): plausible index value 800 to 1050, likely 960, based on recent chart analysis of SPY, with likely 960 based on earnings at that time (SPY priced at 1/1oth of index price)
Plausible S&P 500 Downside Target at 500 (January 20, 2009): plausible index bottom at about 500 using visual curve fitting compound growth rate curves on the shape of 81 year S&P 500 chart
Conclusion:
Nobody knows the future, and the market humbles all men. However, we all must peer into it anyway to choose our courses. While the markets are not rational in the short-term, they are probably rational over the long-term, so we try to be rational about what might happen.
All of the rational attempts we have made rolled up into a composite suggest that the S&P 500 is more likely, in a rational world, to be currently priced in range of 600 to 1000, with a tighter range probably 650/700 to 800/850.
Of course, being irrational in the short-term, the index could go higher or lower than that range. Also, the current worldwide economic situation is uniquely difficult and may continue to deteriorate, making short-term predictions perilous. In the long-term (perhaps 5 to 10 years), however, the current level of the market will likely be seen as roughly reasonable.
The apparently reasonable long-term index price notwithstanding, do note that the long-term macro view of index price behavior does not yet suggest a new upward trend is in place. Bottoms end below and tops end above what would be considered reasonable price levels.
If you have a long time horizon, investing broadly now is probably fine. If you have a short horizon or are currently relying on your portfolio for lifestyle support, much more cautious and selective position taking is necessary to control risk.
Winning by not losing is the byword for the retired or those who have completed the savings stage of their financial lives.
Based on US and world nominal GDP growth rates from 1981 through 2008, we make a case for the likely price of the S&P 500 between 650 and 800.
The Facts:
One problem with financial analysis is the mixing of facts with opinions and failing to note which is which. To try to avoid that problem, this section contains only what we would call facts — actual historical index prices and actual compound growth rates between prices over various periods; and actual US and world GDP levels and the compound growth rates between them over various periods.
Let’s begin with US and world GDP figures.
From year-end 1981 through year-end 2008, the compound annual growth rate (”CAGR”) of US nominal GDP was 5.78%. The real GDP growth rate was 2.96%.
From year-end 1981 through year-end 2008, the CAGR of world nominal GDP was 6.19%. The real GDP growth rate was 1.37%.
The raw data came form the IMF “World Economic Outlook” and the CAGR came from using the XIRR function in Excel.
Now let’s look at the S&P 500 price level changes.
We used the XIRR function to calculate the S&P price CAGR (not total return) from various starting points with data beginning as early as 1926, through the high reached on October 11, 2007 and through the recent low reached on March 6, 2009.
click image to enlarge
Effective rate of price return from December 1981 at various hypothetical current index price levels:
(as of April 24, 2009)
600 — 5.99%
650 — 6.30%
700 — 6.59%
750 — 6.86%
800 — 7.11%
850 — 7.35%
900 — 7.58%
950 — 7.79%
1000 — 7.99%
1050 — 8.19%
Effective rate of price return from 10-year average centered at December 1981 to various hypothetical current index price levels:
(as of April 24, 2009)
600 — 5.43%
650 — 5.74%
700 — 6.03%
750 — 6.30%
800 — 6.55%
850 — 6.79%
900 — 7.01%
950 — 7.22%
1000 — 7.42%
1050 — 7.61%
Interpretation of the Facts:
It is unlikely, in our view, that the vast bulk of the value of the US stock market (e.g. S&P 500 index) can persistently grow for long periods (e.g 27 + years since 1981) at a rate that is greater than the rate of the entire US and world economies (e.g. their nominal GDPs).
Since the US and world nominal GDPs from 1981 have been 5.78% and 6.19% respectively, those rates of growth would seem to be reasonable limits, or at least central tendencies, for the growth rate of the S&P 500 index price level.
In fact, we think, it is overreaching to assume that the S&P 500 price level could reach those growth rates, because the price level does not consider dividends that contribute roughly 1/3 of total return over long periods, according to our research and the research of others.
So, giving the index the benefit of the doubt (that it’s price could match US and world GDP while also generating substantial dividends), the current reasonable price level for the S&P 500 index may well be between 650 and 800.
Prior Probing for Likely S&P 500 Index Level:
In prior articles, we have used long-term charts (some over 80 years), historical valuation multiples, historical earnings, current earnings, projected earnings, normalized earnings, operating earnings and “as reported” earnings; as well as price-to-book, price-to-sales, and index-market-cap-to-national-GDP to try to get a handle on where the price of the S&P 500 makes the most sense.
Markets Are a Mixed Bag (April 18, 2009): plausible index value 400 to 925, based on various valuation methods reported in the March 9 Barron’s
Multi-Year Fundamental Valuation (April 6, 2009): plausible index value 500 to 1000, based on multi-year normalized earnings and historical normalized P/E ratio
Fundamental S&P 500 Index Price Projections (April 4, 2009): plausible index value 500 to 1200, based on different analysts use of different assumptions and methods
S&P 500 Trends: 1980 - 2009 (March 13, 2009): plausible index value 735 to 980, based on 30-year chart trend analysis
Price Targets for SPY (September 29, 2009): plausible index value 800 to 1050, likely 960, based on recent chart analysis of SPY, with likely 960 based on earnings at that time (SPY priced at 1/1oth of index price)
Plausible S&P 500 Downside Target at 500 (January 20, 2009): plausible index bottom at about 500 using visual curve fitting compound growth rate curves on the shape of 81 year S&P 500 chart
Conclusion:
Nobody knows the future, and the market humbles all men. However, we all must peer into it anyway to choose our courses. While the markets are not rational in the short-term, they are probably rational over the long-term, so we try to be rational about what might happen.
All of the rational attempts we have made rolled up into a composite suggest that the S&P 500 is more likely, in a rational world, to be currently priced in range of 600 to 1000, with a tighter range probably 650/700 to 800/850.
Of course, being irrational in the short-term, the index could go higher or lower than that range. Also, the current worldwide economic situation is uniquely difficult and may continue to deteriorate, making short-term predictions perilous. In the long-term (perhaps 5 to 10 years), however, the current level of the market will likely be seen as roughly reasonable.
The apparently reasonable long-term index price notwithstanding, do note that the long-term macro view of index price behavior does not yet suggest a new upward trend is in place. Bottoms end below and tops end above what would be considered reasonable price levels.
If you have a long time horizon, investing broadly now is probably fine. If you have a short horizon or are currently relying on your portfolio for lifestyle support, much more cautious and selective position taking is necessary to control risk.
Winning by not losing is the byword for the retired or those who have completed the savings stage of their financial lives.
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Esta semana , nao só nos mercados como aqui no caldeirao foi muito interessante, com uma "luta" entre touros e ursos, para ver quem mais razao tinha.
na minha modesta opiniao, em vez de esgrimir argumentos bear enquanto os mercados nao param se subir e vao fazendo máximos atrás de máximos , ou argumentos bull, enquanto uma resistencia forte nao for quebrada em alta, o melhor mesmo é olhar para os gráficos e ir dançando conforme a musica...
e no gráfico semanal consigo vislumbrar que pela primeira vez desde há algumas semanas o máximo anterior nao foi quebrado e o minimo foi...
sendo assim , a minha abordagem para a próxima semana vai ser bearish, nao por teimosia, ou porque as noticias sao pessimas, ou porque os bancos tem ou nao tem dinheiro, ou porque se vendem casas ou nao se vendem casas, nao , nada disso, apenas e só por algo muito simples.
chart semanal
o máximo nao foi quebrado
o minimo foi quebrado
por isso vou entrar curto na 2 feira com stop um pouco acima do anterior máximo...
se os bulls quebrarem em alta a resistencia nesta zona dos 880 pontos, aí a musica será outra...
na minha modesta opiniao, em vez de esgrimir argumentos bear enquanto os mercados nao param se subir e vao fazendo máximos atrás de máximos , ou argumentos bull, enquanto uma resistencia forte nao for quebrada em alta, o melhor mesmo é olhar para os gráficos e ir dançando conforme a musica...
e no gráfico semanal consigo vislumbrar que pela primeira vez desde há algumas semanas o máximo anterior nao foi quebrado e o minimo foi...
sendo assim , a minha abordagem para a próxima semana vai ser bearish, nao por teimosia, ou porque as noticias sao pessimas, ou porque os bancos tem ou nao tem dinheiro, ou porque se vendem casas ou nao se vendem casas, nao , nada disso, apenas e só por algo muito simples.
chart semanal
o máximo nao foi quebrado
o minimo foi quebrado
por isso vou entrar curto na 2 feira com stop um pouco acima do anterior máximo...
se os bulls quebrarem em alta a resistencia nesta zona dos 880 pontos, aí a musica será outra...
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onda 2 da 1 da 5 = a(36 pontos) e c(36 pontos)... quer isto dizer que a minha sugestão é esta onda acabar nos 870 visto que os 863 foram invadidos... pode ficar aquem para não fechar o gap...
vamos ver... só uma ideia...
para mim isto é o começo do próximo downtrend e não de uma correcção...
mas aceito todos os cenários... 1/2 invested aos 865.. espero que chegue aos 870..
Cumprimentos
vamos ver... só uma ideia...
para mim isto é o começo do próximo downtrend e não de uma correcção...
mas aceito todos os cenários... 1/2 invested aos 865.. espero que chegue aos 870..
Cumprimentos
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bestblandina Escreveu:o SP vai subindo calmamente, hoje é sexta. Poucos vão ser aqueles que vão querer ir de fim de semana com posições. Poderá haver um pequeno sell off no final da sessão.
Essa ideia de o pessoal ir de fim de semana e vender não passa de um mito! A sexta feira passada foi sempre a bombar e a ou tra e a outra.
O mês de Abril e os primeiros quinze dias de maiso tradicionalmente são tempos de subida nas bolsas, pela apresentação de resultados.
Ainda há dias chamei a atencção neste tópico, que para cumprir a velha máxima "sell in May and go way" temos de passar por Abril.
E para os mercados não há resultados "maus" pode haver resultados "mênos bons"
No ano passado com uma grande falência á porta (a Leahman) e outras á beira disso AIG os GM etc. etc.
Não impediu a marcha do S&P dos minimos de 1272 de março para os 1440 de Maio, e no DAX dos 6190 de Março para os 7225 de Maio, porque raio este ano haveria de ser diferente?
O "sell off" verdadeiramente aconteceu na segunda! "Sell off" hoje depois das 20:30? Não está com cara disso mas...pode sempre acontecer!
Editado pela última vez por carcanhol em 24/4/2009 17:45, num total de 2 vezes.
"I love the semel of Dax in the morning,...semel´s like victory" frase famosa da autoria de um militar americano no Vietenam 
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O canal continua válido, o target tambem.
Resumo do best
sentimento: bull 60% ; neutro 30 % ; bear 10%
trade: manter
stop de saida: 830
stop para entrada: 854
mundança de sentimento: abaixo 800
Target: 893
Complicações para os touros: 860-875
quem não quer
quem quer:
Resumo do best
sentimento: bull 60% ; neutro 30 % ; bear 10%
trade: manter
stop de saida: 830
stop para entrada: 854
mundança de sentimento: abaixo 800
Target: 893
Complicações para os touros: 860-875
quem não quer
quem quer:
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O SPX diário continua no seu canal ascendente bem marcado.
De resto pouco mais há a dizer.
(Mas vou dizer qualquer coisa).
Com o final da secção de ontem os touros ficaram todos "pendurados".
Com o final da secção de hoje, os ursos "pendurados" ficaram.
Amanhã já estão a pensar que sobe, mas se calhar desce.
Ou seja-Está muito difícil para negociar.
Mas acho que o SPX, apesar da sua tendência ascendente, está numa fase de"espera" e quando menos se esperar vai descer ou subir com bastante violência.
Poderá ser logo amanhã.
Amanhã até eu me vou rir deste "post"(Bem o melhor é começar logo hoje". 
Um abraço.
De resto pouco mais há a dizer.
(Mas vou dizer qualquer coisa).
Com o final da secção de ontem os touros ficaram todos "pendurados".
Com o final da secção de hoje, os ursos "pendurados" ficaram.
Amanhã já estão a pensar que sobe, mas se calhar desce.
Ou seja-Está muito difícil para negociar.
Mas acho que o SPX, apesar da sua tendência ascendente, está numa fase de"espera" e quando menos se esperar vai descer ou subir com bastante violência.
Poderá ser logo amanhã.
Amanhã até eu me vou rir deste "post"(Bem o melhor é começar logo hoje".
Um abraço.
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Nunca te é dado um desejo sem também te ser dado o poder de o realizares.Contudo,poderás ter de lutar por isso. Richard Bach "in" Ilusões.
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poker-ajuda
Foi um dia bom para entradas longas. Parece que vamos visitar a resistência dos 875 novamente. O meu target continua válido. No intervalo dos 860 a 877 fico de fora a ver. Se romper os 879 podemos facilmente chegar aos 890 com os stop a serem accionados
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