Alan Farley- "The Halfway Point: Anything Can Happen&qu
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Em primeiro lugar, desculpem pela minha ausência hoje que se deveu a motivos pessoais e que se repetirá daqui a uma semana.
Camisa, sou assinante do realmoney. É o site financeiro de que mais gosto e, ao longo destes anos, aprendi lá muito. Muitas vezes, não concordo com as opiniões lá deixadas, mas isso não implica que não devore tudo o que lá é escrito, pois quem lá escreve tem qualidade.
lmm, ele estava muito bearish depois do início destas subidas violentas mas a meio da subida emendou a mão e reconheceu que estava a lutar contra uma corrente forte e que tinha rapidamente que se posicionar a favor dela.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
Camisa, sou assinante do realmoney. É o site financeiro de que mais gosto e, ao longo destes anos, aprendi lá muito. Muitas vezes, não concordo com as opiniões lá deixadas, mas isso não implica que não devore tudo o que lá é escrito, pois quem lá escreve tem qualidade.
lmm, ele estava muito bearish depois do início destas subidas violentas mas a meio da subida emendou a mão e reconheceu que estava a lutar contra uma corrente forte e que tinha rapidamente que se posicionar a favor dela.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
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Ulisses,
O Alan diz
Ele REALMENTE mudou de bear para bull quando no Real Money?
Eu não sou subscritor, por isso é sempre com agrado que leio estes freebies
Provavelmente não tenho razão e ele "rapidamente" terá seguido o conselho da mãe.
A minha questão prende-se somente com o ego-trip-guru-bullshit que é muito frequente de muitos que olham para os gráficos e "constatam" o passado associando-o à sua performance...
Nota: Tenho o Farley em boa conta!
Mais fácil de dizer do que fazer, né?
Eu diria, resto de 2003 e para sempre, lol!
Que tal puxar o gatilho quando identificamos uma oportunidade, definindo de imediato o stop?
Quem sabe o que o mercado realmente vai fazer a seguir?
O que é ter "dúvidas" em trading? Será estar neutral, lol?
Abraço,
lmm
O Alan diz
How well you did during the monstrous spring rally was in direct proportion to your ability to suspend reality, bite your lip and buy everything in sight. I did very well because reality suspension is one of my strongest points. I also kept in mind something my mommy told me a long time ago: Don't fight the tape.
Ele REALMENTE mudou de bear para bull quando no Real Money?
Eu não sou subscritor, por isso é sempre com agrado que leio estes freebies
Provavelmente não tenho razão e ele "rapidamente" terá seguido o conselho da mãe.
A minha questão prende-se somente com o ego-trip-guru-bullshit que é muito frequente de muitos que olham para os gráficos e "constatam" o passado associando-o à sua performance...
Nota: Tenho o Farley em boa conta!
The next time you feel like a market god, check to see if there's a target on your back. That's the way it works in the real world.
Mais fácil de dizer do que fazer, né?
My best advice is to leave your trading ego at the door for the rest of 2003.
Eu diria, resto de 2003 e para sempre, lol!
Que tal puxar o gatilho quando identificamos uma oportunidade, definindo de imediato o stop?
Quem sabe o que o mercado realmente vai fazer a seguir?
O que é ter "dúvidas" em trading? Será estar neutral, lol?
Abraço,
lmm
Posso bem ser o pior trader da História:
Quando o mercado está comigo tenho sempre contratos a menos;
Quando o mercado está contra mim tenho sempre contratos a mais!
Quando o mercado está comigo tenho sempre contratos a menos;
Quando o mercado está contra mim tenho sempre contratos a mais!
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Bingo!
Eu concerteza não diria melhor.
Retrata fielmente os 6 meses que passaram e tem lições importantíssimas a tirar por todos nós
Continua a postar estes artigos do Real Money que são bem valiosos
PS: és assinante do Real Money?
Retrata fielmente os 6 meses que passaram e tem lições importantíssimas a tirar por todos nós
Continua a postar estes artigos do Real Money que são bem valiosos
PS: és assinante do Real Money?
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Alan Farley- "The Halfway Point: Anything Can Happen&qu
"The Halfway Point: Anything Can Happen"
By Alan Farley
Special to RealMoney.com
07/03/2003 12:51 PM EDT
"Adapt, adjust, accommodate. That about sums up the first half of the year when it comes to my trading. I went with the flow. I followed the path of least resistance. I did anything to get a small edge in the odd mix of war, peace, bulls and bears.
Let's start at the beginning. I was sitting on a nice basket of cheap stocks when the New Year rolled around. The subsequent "January Effect" lasted all of eight days, getting cut short when the guy from Texas said we'd probably be at war by the end of the month. So much for buyer's lust.
Most of the public's money stampeded for the exits after that unsettling news, leaving a few die-hards to duke it out mano a mano. It was a nasty time in which hedge-fund bullies used their considerable power to wreak havoc on those foolish enough to stick around. Having nothing better to do, I didn't miss a tick of these prewar festivities.
It did have its good points, though. It was a scalper's dream market, set in a brooding Goth landscape. It was a trading world in which everything worked as long as your holding period was under five minutes. Unfortunately, I'm a much better swing trader than scalper so I barely got through February with my body parts intact.
A New Beginning
They say it's always the darkest just before the new dawn. That's how it felt on March 13. The market was falling, there was acrimonious war debate and absolutely no one was in the mood to turn on the TV or their trading screens. Then some bright chap noticed how current events looked exactly like 1991. Happy days were here again.
OK, that's a stretch because the start of the spring rally didn't look like a rally at all. We bolted up for a few days but everyone stopped to hold their breath and wonder how "shock and awe" would play out in the markets. That was one weird trip, made even weirder by the endless "Saddam is dead" rumors.
How well you did during the monstrous spring rally was in direct proportion to your ability to suspend reality, bite your lip and buy everything in sight. I did very well because reality suspension is one of my strongest points. I also kept in mind something my mommy told me a long time ago: Don't fight the tape.
Shooting Themselves in the Foot
It`s amazing how many self-inflicted wounds professional traders incurred during the three-month lift. These self-appointed gunslingers were confident they knew stocks better than all the newbies and unwashed masses heading into the market casino. So they shorted every uptick with a rabid hunger to bend price action to their will.
What a pity. All they had to do was throw money at the market, and everything would have worked out fine. But what fun is it being on the same side as the dumb money? So they chose to be right rather than play a game where everyone was winning except them.
Did I mention what a pity it was? Oh yeah, I already did. Poor baby, you're breaking my heart with tales of what should have happened last spring. I have one question for you: Who's the dumb money now?
June 6 was the day the momentum died. But die-hard momentum traders have thick skulls, so they were reminded of the many ways to lose money in 2003. Welcome to the sidewinder market -- a swing-friendly environment where the averages go nowhere in a hurry.
It's a comfortable place I call home, but many others find it torturous, unfair and downright obscene. After all, the market has an obligation to reward those who chase momentum in the same way dogs chase their tails. The key difference is Fido always has a wagger to shake, but the market doesn't always have momentum.
What We've Learned
What's the point of this nostalgic rerun of the first half of the year? There are lessons to be learned, my friends. First, the market is always changing and no particular environment represents the true state of affairs. The next time you feel like a market god, check to see if there's a target on your back. That's the way it works in the real world.
The other lesson is that markets gravitate toward the price action that exploits our greatest weaknesses. Regardless of how well we figure out what's going on today, it will be tomorrow that dictates whether we survive or perish in the long run.
My best advice is to leave your trading ego at the door for the rest of 2003. It will get in the way of dodging grenades about to be tossed in your direction. The bizarre events so far this year tell us anything can happen between now and the next time the big ball drops in Times Square. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Alan Farley
Special to RealMoney.com
07/03/2003 12:51 PM EDT
"Adapt, adjust, accommodate. That about sums up the first half of the year when it comes to my trading. I went with the flow. I followed the path of least resistance. I did anything to get a small edge in the odd mix of war, peace, bulls and bears.
Let's start at the beginning. I was sitting on a nice basket of cheap stocks when the New Year rolled around. The subsequent "January Effect" lasted all of eight days, getting cut short when the guy from Texas said we'd probably be at war by the end of the month. So much for buyer's lust.
Most of the public's money stampeded for the exits after that unsettling news, leaving a few die-hards to duke it out mano a mano. It was a nasty time in which hedge-fund bullies used their considerable power to wreak havoc on those foolish enough to stick around. Having nothing better to do, I didn't miss a tick of these prewar festivities.
It did have its good points, though. It was a scalper's dream market, set in a brooding Goth landscape. It was a trading world in which everything worked as long as your holding period was under five minutes. Unfortunately, I'm a much better swing trader than scalper so I barely got through February with my body parts intact.
A New Beginning
They say it's always the darkest just before the new dawn. That's how it felt on March 13. The market was falling, there was acrimonious war debate and absolutely no one was in the mood to turn on the TV or their trading screens. Then some bright chap noticed how current events looked exactly like 1991. Happy days were here again.
OK, that's a stretch because the start of the spring rally didn't look like a rally at all. We bolted up for a few days but everyone stopped to hold their breath and wonder how "shock and awe" would play out in the markets. That was one weird trip, made even weirder by the endless "Saddam is dead" rumors.
How well you did during the monstrous spring rally was in direct proportion to your ability to suspend reality, bite your lip and buy everything in sight. I did very well because reality suspension is one of my strongest points. I also kept in mind something my mommy told me a long time ago: Don't fight the tape.
Shooting Themselves in the Foot
It`s amazing how many self-inflicted wounds professional traders incurred during the three-month lift. These self-appointed gunslingers were confident they knew stocks better than all the newbies and unwashed masses heading into the market casino. So they shorted every uptick with a rabid hunger to bend price action to their will.
What a pity. All they had to do was throw money at the market, and everything would have worked out fine. But what fun is it being on the same side as the dumb money? So they chose to be right rather than play a game where everyone was winning except them.
Did I mention what a pity it was? Oh yeah, I already did. Poor baby, you're breaking my heart with tales of what should have happened last spring. I have one question for you: Who's the dumb money now?
June 6 was the day the momentum died. But die-hard momentum traders have thick skulls, so they were reminded of the many ways to lose money in 2003. Welcome to the sidewinder market -- a swing-friendly environment where the averages go nowhere in a hurry.
It's a comfortable place I call home, but many others find it torturous, unfair and downright obscene. After all, the market has an obligation to reward those who chase momentum in the same way dogs chase their tails. The key difference is Fido always has a wagger to shake, but the market doesn't always have momentum.
What We've Learned
What's the point of this nostalgic rerun of the first half of the year? There are lessons to be learned, my friends. First, the market is always changing and no particular environment represents the true state of affairs. The next time you feel like a market god, check to see if there's a target on your back. That's the way it works in the real world.
The other lesson is that markets gravitate toward the price action that exploits our greatest weaknesses. Regardless of how well we figure out what's going on today, it will be tomorrow that dictates whether we survive or perish in the long run.
My best advice is to leave your trading ego at the door for the rest of 2003. It will get in the way of dodging grenades about to be tossed in your direction. The bizarre events so far this year tell us anything can happen between now and the next time the big ball drops in Times Square. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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- Mensagens: 31013
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