Ao minuto: "Não vai ser preciso orçamento retificativo", diz Montenegro

[atomez]

Mais sobre O Plano:

Treasury Presses Ahead With Plan For Toxic Assets

New Body to Work With Private Investors

By David Cho
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, March 22, 2009; Page A01

The Treasury Department will unveil the next step in its financial rescue efforts tomorrow, announcing that it intends to create a government body, called the Public Investment Corp., to finance the purchase of as much as $1 trillion in soured loans and toxic assets from ailing banks, according to sources.

The plan calls for the new entity to combine its resources with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., the Federal Reserve and private investors to buy those loans and other assets. But the government will put far more money into the deals and take on more risk than the investors, which could include hedge funds, private-equity firms, pension funds and foreign investors with U.S. headquarters, the sources said. The corporation will be funded with $75 billion to $100 billion from the $700 billion financial rescue package.

Key details of the toxic asset purchasing program are not yet finalized, said officials in contact with the Treasury. Some expressed concern that the markets would expect too much out of Monday's announcement. When Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner first sketched out the administration's rescue plan last month, he was criticized on Wall Street and on Capitol Hill for being too vague and creating uncertainty in the markets.
...
Last fall, billionaire investor Warren E. Buffet, Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein and William H. Gross, the managing director of PIMCO, the largest bond fund in the world, approached Treasury officials about an idea to create investment funds, using public and private money, to buy toxic assets from banks, according to former senior Treasury officials. Buffett is a director of The Washington Post Co.

The Obama administration further developed that proposal to address the two main problems banks are facing: troubled debt such as mortgages that institutions are holding until the loans are paid off, plus the complex securities and derivatives that were invented to finance those loans. Both types of assets -- the loans and the complex securities -- have fallen in value. Banks are stuck with them, hindering their ability to lend.

To deal with the troubled loans, the administration would combine resources from the FDIC and the Public Investment Corp. to create several investment funds that could ultimately buy $500 billion to $750 billion worth of loans.

Here's how the program could work: If a lender wants to dispose of about $10 million worth of residential mortgages, it would approach the FDIC, which would run an auction for interested private investors. If the winning bid ended up fetching an $8 million price tag, the FDIC would provide most of the financing and guarantee losses for as much as $6 million. The Treasury would contribute as much as 80 percent of the rest of the cost of the pool of loans. Private investors would contribute only the remaining amount, yet would be in charge of managing the portfolio of loans. Government officials said they would maintain strict oversight on who will run the funds and how the funds will be managed.

To deal with toxic securities, the government has developed two separate initiatives.

One would expand an existing Fed program, known as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, that is aimed at reviving non-traditional lending markets. These markets, which some call the "shadow banking system," provide nearly half of all U.S. consumer loans. The program would be expanded to buy some residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities that have high credit ratings using money from the Public Investment Corp. Although details have not been worked out, the plan would require the Fed to offer loans to private investors for a much longer period than the central bank does under TALF, possibly as long as seven years, sources said.

The administration will also launch public-private investment funds to buy toxic assets that back mortgages and other troubled loans. In this case, the Treasury would provide financing that would match, dollar-for-dollar, money from private investors who participate. In addition, the department would provide a loan to increase the newly formed investment funds' purchasing power. The details of these financing terms, however, have not been worked out, the sources said.

Treasury officials said more information about these programs will be revealed in the coming weeks.

[atomez]

Agora ainda falta saber os detalhes do célebre plano Geithner para os activos tóxicos – esperemos que seja em breve, pois vai causar mais um sobressalto nos Mercados, para um lado ou para o outro.

Começam a aparecer alguns detalhes. Agora é ver como reagem os investidores e o mercado.

Muito por alto e resumidamente -- o governo vai formar joint ventures com investidores privados para comprarem os activos tóxicos da banca, emprestando-lhes até 85% do total com juros bonificados e entrando ainda com $1 por cada $1 investido.

Na prática o estado vai entrar com uns 95% do capital necessário para libertar os activos tóxicos -- pelo menos $2tr -- através de empresas de investimento conjuntas com investidores privados que ficam com o controlo de gestão dessas empresas. Os investidores privados serão escolhidos por leilão competitivo, quem entrar com mais capital, ganha.

Toxic Asset Plan Foresees Big Subsidies for Investors

March 21, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department is expected to unveil early next week its long-delayed plan to buy as much as $1 trillion in troubled mortgages and related assets from financial institutions, according to people close to the talks.

The plan is likely to offer generous subsidies, in the form of low-interest loans, to coax investors to form partnerships with the government to buy toxic assets from banks.

To help protect taxpayers, who would pay for the bulk of the purchases, the plan calls for auctioning assets to the highest bidders.

The uproar over the American International Group’s bonuses has not stopped the Obama administration from plowing ahead. The plan is not expected to impose restrictions on the executive pay of private investors or fund managers who participate.

The three-pronged approach is perhaps the most central component of President Obama’s plan to rescue the nation’s banking system from the money-losing assets weighing down bank balance sheets, crippling their ability to make new loans and deepening the recession.

Industry analysts estimate that the nation’s banks are holding at least $2 trillion in troubled assets, mostly residential and commercial mortgages.

The plan to be announced next week involves three separate approaches. In one, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will set up special-purpose investment partnerships and lend about 85 percent of the money that those partnerships will need to buy up troubled assets that banks want to sell.

In the second, the Treasury will hire four or five investment management firms, matching the private money that each of the firms puts up on a dollar-for-dollar basis with government money.

In the third piece, the Treasury plans to expand lending through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, a joint venture with the Federal Reserve.

The goal of the plan is to leverage the dwindling resources of the Treasury Department’s bailout program with money from private investors to buy up as many of those toxic assets as possible and free the banks to resume more normal lending.

But the details have been treacherously difficult, politically and financially, and some of the big decisions are the same as those that bedeviled the Treasury Department under President George W. Bush last year.

Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, provoked scathing criticism from investors in February by announcing the broad outlines of the plan without addressing the tough questions, like how the government planned to share the risk with investors or arrive at a fair price for the assets that would neither cheat taxpayers nor harm the banks.

Although the details of the F.D.I.C. part were still being completed on Friday, it is expected that the government will provide the overwhelming bulk of the money — possibly more than 95 percent — through loans or direct investments of taxpayer money.

The hope is that such a generous taxpayer subsidy will attract private investors into the market and accelerate the recovery of the country’s banks.

The key protection for taxpayers, according to people briefed on the plan, is that the private investors will bid in auctions against each other for the assets. As a result, administration officials contend, the government will be buying the troubled loans of the banks at a deep discount to their original face value.

Because the government can hold those mortgages as long as it wants, officials are betting the government will be repaid and that taxpayers may even earn a profit if the market value of the loans climbs in the years to come.

To entice private investors like hedge funds and private equity firms to take part, the F.D.I.C. will provide nonrecourse loans — that is, loans that are secured only by the value of the mortgage assets being bought — worth up to 85 percent of the value of a portfolio of troubled assets.

The remaining 15 percent will come from the government and the private investors. The Treasury would put up as much as 80 percent of that, while private investors would put up as little as 20 percent of the money, according to industry officials. Private investors, then, would be contributing as little as 3 percent of the equity, and the government as much as 97 percent.

The government would receive interest payments on the money it lent to a partnership and it would share profits and losses on the equity portion of the investment with the private investors.

Ever since last fall, industry analysts and policy makers in Washington have argued that the banking system’s biggest problem was the huge pile of troubled mortgages and other loans on bank balance sheets.

Risk-taking institutional investors, like hedge funds and private equity funds, have refused to pay more than about 30 cents on the dollar for many bundles of mortgages, even if most of the borrowers are still current. But banks holding those mortgages, not wanting to book huge losses on their holdings, have often refused to sell for less than 60 cents on the dollar.

The result has been a paralyzing impasse. Banks, unwilling to sell their loans at fire-sale prices, have had less capital available to make new loans. Mortgage investors, unable to leverage their investments with borrowed money, have been unwilling to pay more than fire-sale prices.

To break that impasse, the government’s crucial subsidy is meant to provide investors with the kind of low-cost financing that has been utterly unavailable in today’s credit markets.

Administration officials refused to comment on the details of the plan, and refused to say what kind of interest rates the government would be charging investors. But government officials have long maintained that they could charge slightly more than the Treasury’s own cost of money and still offer rates far less than the private markets would demand.

To start the program, Treasury will ask banks, like Citigroup or JPMorgan Chase, to identify pools of residential and commercial real estate loans that they will be willing to sell through an auction. Private investors will bid against each other, setting a market price. No bank will be required to participate.

Analysts worry whether the prices investors offer will be high enough to induce the banks to sell assets. The hope is that high valuations at the auctions will increase the price of assets that remain on the books of banks, bolstering confidence in the sector.

Still, the Treasury Department’s biggest obstacle may be the current political environment in Washington, where Democratic lawmakers are furious about the pay packages and bonuses received by executives at companies being rescued by taxpayers.

Many investment executives said they were worried that participating in any bailout program would expose them to political wrath and potentially steep new restrictions on their own pay.

Treasury and Fed officials have remained firmly against imposing any restrictions on pay for companies investing money in the rescue effort rather than receiving money from it.

The plan comes as financial institutions continue to fail. Federal regulators Friday seized control of the two largest wholesale credit unions — U.S. Central Federal Credit Union and Western Corporate Federal Credit Union — which together had $57 billion in assets. They provide financing, check-clearing and other tasks for retail credit unions.

[Crómio]

Aproveitando as palavras do Capitão Nemo em direcção á mesma onda, digo que todas as sextas feiras a noite cá venho sempre á espera da crónica semanal do fogueiro, um verdadeiro must do caldeirão.

Fogueiro, essa parte final da tua crónica faz-me lembrar assim derepente o freeport não sei porquê

Me 3!

Obrigado Fogueiro, pela clarividência e partilha de sabedoria.

Abraço

[atomez]

É bem conhecido o aforismo:

O mercado antecipa a economia em 6 meses

Só que há duas interpretações:

Errada - A economia vai recuperar para o ano que vem, então o mercado vai recuperar a partir do meio do ano

Correcta - Se os mercados recuperarem a meio do ano, então talvez a economia recupere a partir do ano que vem

Bom fds e obrigado ao camarada Fog.

[Dilson Costa]

Aproveitando as palavras do Capitão Nemo em direcção á mesma onda, digo que todas as sextas feiras a noite cá venho sempre á espera da crónica semanal do fogueiro, um verdadeiro must do caldeirão.

Fogueiro, essa parte final da tua crónica faz-me lembrar assim derepente o freeport não sei porquê

[Fogueiro]

Constatei agora que o gráfico do USD referido no meu comentário, não foi colocado neste Fórum.

Aqui fica, com o meu pedido de desculpas:

O gráfico do USD de ontem, onde se vê bem quando foi o anúncio do Fed:

[Capitão Nemo]

Estes comentários semanais traduzem-se numa newsletter riquíssima que o Fogueiro faz o favor de disponibilizar no Caldeirão.

A quantidade de informação e a capacidade de a traduzir e sintetizar de forma a que eu, ignorante destes temas, seja capaz de entender a conjuntura que vivemos.

Não tenho palavras para agradecer ao Fogueiro e também ao Caldeirão por atrair a este espaço esta qualidade informativa que por exemplo não vejo em jornais, rádio ou televisão.

[Fogueiro]

Comentário Semanal

Para uma 3ª sexta-feira, sempre houve alguma animação! Da parte da tarde, depois dos contratos fechados, os grandes deixaram cair o Mercado e houve a tal queda que eu esperava desde há dois dias. O VIX subiu 9% em 2 horas, para depois ceder um pouco mas fechando bem acima da sua MM40 semanas.
O Mercado está novamente desconfortável!

De notar que, antes disso, tivemos o maior rali de 7 sessões desde 1939. Começou por ser técnico e foi acelerado por uma decisão politica do Fed. Mas não deixou de ser um recorde de 70 anos!

Agora ainda falta saber os detalhes do célebre plano Geithner para os activos tóxicos – esperemos que seja em breve, pois vai causar mais um sobressalto nos Mercados, para um lado ou para o outro. Se for como das suas anteriores intervenções, será para baixo… Mas será um problema para as nossas posições curtas se a reacção for positiva.

Para quem investe pelos fundamentais dos Sectores e das Empresas, estes tempos são problemáticos…

A economia real, essa nada tem a ver com isto: continua mal e as previsões de retoma ainda este ano, continuam-me a parecer utópicas. O Fed diz que poderá estabilizar no fim do ano, talvez.
Mas o desemprego sobe e o consumo desce – mais depressa do que a velocidade dos remédios que estão a ser aplicados.
Mais de 20% das hipotecas estão acima do valor das casas que lhes servem de garantia.
Os tectos dos cartões de crédito estão a ser reduzidos a um ritmo alucinante: superior a $1 tr no ano passado e a $2 tr este ano.

Estão por resolver muitos problemas, como, por exemplo, a General Motors (GM) em situação de semi-falência aguentada pelo dinheiro dos contribuintes. Se Obama tomar uma atitude mais firme, ela pode ser interpretada positivamente pelo Mercado pois mostraria a sua desmarcação dos sindicatos e da ala esquerda do seu partido.

Outro problema é o dos “Stress Tests” aos 19 maiores bancos, que são supostos decidir quais merecem mais capital e quais não. Como há uma certa convicção que todos serão ajudados, se houver algum que chumbe, pode arrastar o Sector Financeiro. Provavelmente Geithner permitirá alguma condescendência na avaliação, mas depois ainda tem de enfrentar o escrutínio do Congresso para conseguir mais dinheiro. Não vai ser fácil conseguir o dinheiro de que precisa: nota-se ali um ambiente cada vez mais adverso, pois a soma que as actuais e futuras gerações terão de pagar já é enorme.

Ontem confirmou-se que há uma queda na procura dos estrangeiros por dívida pública americana (TBs) de longo prazo, o que vai dificultar o financiamento das iniciativas Obama para relançar a economia.
Os últimos números do grande comprador de TBs: em Fevereiro, o excedente comercial da China foi de apenas 3,7 mil milhões de euros, uma descida de 87,6%, em relação a igual período de 2008. Um economista citado na imprensa oficial prevê que, em 2009, o excedente comercial da China caia para 120 mil milhões de euros, cerca de metade do valor do ano passado.

Esta semana o “sentimento” da AAII mostrou uma queda dos bears pela 3ª semana consecutiva: 38,27% contra 54,47% e 70,27% em cada uma das semanas anteriores.
Mas, mais importante ainda, é haver agora 45% de bulls… é a primeira vez que há mais bulls que bears desde 8 de Janeiro. Lembro que é um Indicador Contrário.

Gostaria de poder ser mais concreto, mas com todas estas cartas completamente fora do baralho a que eu estava habituado, é tão difícil arriscar previsões como pedir ao Papa que recomende o preservativo...

A liquidez continua a ser o meu refúgio.

Como era inevitável, o dólar deu um grande trambolhão (ver gráfico acima) quando o Fed anunciou um aumento de 50% no seu balanço: desvalorizou 4% em 2 dias!
Mas, quer se queira quer não, com deficits enormes os menores, representa a economia mais eficiente do Mundo.

Mais preocupado estou com o que irá acontecer, a seguir, ao Euro.
E economia europeia estará muito pior que a americana, com estes “pensos-rápidos” que vêm sendo decididos a conta-gotas.
Os grandes bancos estão muito expostos às economias de Leste, em queda; a AIG já pagou parte da factura, mas há muito mais a pagar.
Jacques Delors, entre outros, já deram o alerta:
http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/economia/portug ... -1730.html

Neste contexto assistimos, em Portugal, a coisas aberrantes como um troço de CAV (Comboio de Alta Velocidade: prefiro o português à sigla francesa TGV) entre Lisboa e Alenquer, custar um hospital por quilómetro e, pior ainda, os responsáveis políticos acharem isso normal, nem comparando com o custo pelo outro lado do rio, sem túneis nem viadutos… Será para não espantar os touros que andam a pastar na margem esquerda do Tejo?
Creio que foi Milton Friedman que disse ficar feliz pela incompetência dos governos porque, no mínimo, os tornava menos eficientes a pôr em prática mais disparates…

Nossa Senhora de Angola nos valha!

[atomez]

O estado de graça está a acabar...

Obama's approval drops below 60% for first time

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has slipped, as a growing number of Americans see him listening more to his party’s liberals than to its moderates and many voice opposition to some of his key economic proposals. Obama’s job approval rating has slipped from 64% in February to 59% currently, while disapproval has jumped from 17% to 26% over this period.



Although most people think the new president is doing as much as he can to fix the economy and relatively few say Obama’s policies have made the economy worse, the public expresses mixed views of his many major proposals to fix the economy. There continues to be broad support for increased spending on infrastructure, and most have positive views of key aspects of his budget plan – reducing taxes on middle and lower-income households and raising taxes on the affluent.

Yet a majority (52%) says it is wrong to change the Medicare prescription drug plan so that upper-income retirees would pay more. And nearly as many (47%) express a negative view of reducing agricultural subsidies for many farms, as Obama has proposed in his budget plan.

As in December, the public is divided over spending billions to help homeowners who are facing foreclosure on mortgages they cannot afford – 46% say this is the right thing for the government to be doing while an identical percentage says it is wrong. And the prospect of providing loans to struggling automakers GM and Chrysler, which was unpopular in December, has become even more so: Just 30% say it is right for the government to provide loans to the automakers, down from 39% in December.
...
Seven-in-ten (70%) say that people are better off in a free market even if there are severe ups and downs at times. Since last fall, there has been a modest rise in the percentage saying a smaller government with fewer services is preferable to a bigger government with more services (from 42% to 48%).

[Fogueiro]

* The general business conditions index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to a new low of -38.2 in March, down from a February reading of -34.7, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. Economists had expected the measure of regional manufacturing conditions to have risen slightly to -32.0.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire ... rview.html

* Industrial production fell 1.4% in February, compared with a revised January decline of 1.9%, the Federal Reserve said. Economists had expected a February drop of 1.2%. Meanwhile, capacity utilization slipped to 70.9% in February, down from a revised January reading of 71.9%. Economists had predicted utilization would slip to 71.1% last month.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... efault.htm

[Fogueiro]

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- AIG gave in to demands from Congress Sunday, naming the banks that pocketed billions of dollars last fall as part of a federal bailout of the troubled insurer.

AIG, facing intensifying scrutiny of its pay practices and questions about whether taxpayer money has been well spent on its behalf, released a list Sunday afternoon of the firms that benefited from the government's efforts last year to prop up the New York-based company. The list is topped by numerous European institutions and two big Wall Street firms, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Merrill Lynch (ML).

AIG, which has avoided bankruptcy only because of $170 billion worth of taxpayer funding, said it released the list of trading partners, along with the sums they received, because the company "recognizes the importance of upholding a high degree of transparency with respect to the use of public funds." AIG said it made the announcement after consulting with the Federal Reserve, which has led the bailout of the company.

Legislators have been asking since last fall for the names of the counterparties, contending that taxpayers have a right to know how their funds are being used. Fortune reported a partial list of the recipients earlier this month, though Sunday's disclosures are the first full accounting of which firms received funds and how much they got.

A top Fed official told Congress March 5 he didn't believe it would be helpful for the names of AIG's counterparties to be revealed, because doing so could cause companies doing business with AIG to back away from the company. The disclosures could also undermine confidence in the markets and reduce economic stability, Fed vice chairman Donald Kohn told the Senate Banking Committee in testimony March 5.

Kohn's stand drew fire from legislators such as Senate banking panel chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn. He and other senators urged Kohn to consider the implications of spending billions of dollars of taxpayer funds without transparency.

"Public confidence in what we're doing is at stake, and the public right now is deeply deeply troubled," Dodd said at the hearing March 5. "I understand the legal arguments you've given me, but that kind of answer undermines public trust."

AIG said Sunday that it had consulted with the Fed "about the potential public benefit of counterparty disclosure and the potential that such disclosure would cause competitive harm to AIG or its counterparties."

At issue is which banks were made whole by federal funds extended to AIG in the name of unwinding its troubled credit default swap and securities lending businesses.

Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., sent a letter to Fed chief Ben Bernanke earlier this month requesting information about transactions last November in which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York agreed to lend $52.5 billion to two newly formed companies for the purpose of purchasing troubled debt linked to AIG.

One of those companies got $30 billion from the New York Fed for the purpose of buying so-called collateralized debt obligations, the bundles of risky debt sold on Wall Street. AIG had promised to make the CDO owners whole in case of any losses via the sale of credit default swaps.

The government agreed to buy the CDOs in hopes of unwinding the swaps, which became a massive cash drain at AIG after its credit ratings were downgraded last fall.

On Sunday, AIG named the banks that received collateral on AIG's credit default swap obligations as a result of the government's support of AIG, as well as those that received payments as a result of the government-backed CDO purchases and those that got funds in the unwinding of AIG's securities lending business.

The top recipients of CDS-related collateral were France's Societe Generale, with $4.1 billion, Germany's Deutsche Bank (DB), with $2.6 billion, and Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch of the United States, with $2.5 billion and $1.8 billion.

They were also the top recipients of payments under the CDO purchase program, with SocGen getting $6.9 billion, Goldman $5.6 billion, Merrill $3.1 billion and Deutsche Bank $2.8 billion.

The top beneficiaries of payments tied to the unwinding of the securities lending portfolio were Barclays (BCS) of the U.K., with $7 billion, Deutsche Bank, with $6.4 billion, BNP Paribas of France, with $4.9 billion, Goldman with $4.8 billion and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) with $4.5 billion.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/15/news/co ... /index.htm

[atomez]

Mais um plano, mais um trilião...

Vamos a ver se resulta melhor que os anteriores.

Geithner Says He’ll Soon Offer Details on Toxic-Asset Cleanup

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he will soon provide details of his plan to help banks clean up the non-performing assets that are clogging the financial system.

Geithner’s program has three main elements: Injecting fresh government capital into some of the country’s biggest financial institutions; establishing a public-private partnership to handle as much as $1 trillion of banks’ bad assets; and starting a credit facility with the Federal Reserve of as much as $1 trillion to promote lending to consumers and businesses.

The Treasury hopes to unfreeze credit markets by providing new incentives to banks and investors to resume trading in mortgage securities and other troubled assets. U.S. regulators are conducting a new series of examinations to make sure banks have enough capital to accept losses when selling these assets, while also planning to provide government financing to the investors who might buy them.

Gauging Interest

More information about the public-private investment plan will be made available in the next week, a Treasury official told reporters yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity. The Treasury will roll out enough information for investors to gauge their interest in the new program, along with an operational timeframe, the official said.

The Treasury also is looking to a new program, launched in partnership with the Federal Reserve, to encourage banks to make new loans. The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility is intended to revive the market for securities backed by consumer loans, yet it may start with just a handful of deals, according to participants in the preparations.

[acintra]

Penso que esta foi a decisão mais sensata, devido a todos os problemas que já existem. Acho que se cortassem a produção, só iria subir o petroleo e num curto prazo. Creio que vai ajudar a manter este sentimento positivo por mais algum tempo.

[Fogueiro]

OPEC ministers to keep present output

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/OPEC-mini ... 43499.html

...

[Celsius-reloaded]

Gosto mto deste tópico. Dá-me uma perspectiva completamente diferente não só do mercado mas tb da "Mundo" Americano.

[Fogueiro]

Não é que isto altere a situação, mas o bailout da AIG, com os $30 bn da semana passada, já vai em $180 bn segundo creio.

[atomez]

Neste momento ha varios "grandes" em risco de insolvencia e talvez o "too big to fail" neste momento sirva mesmo para segurar a bola de neve.

Sim, até agora é o que tem aguentado a situação.

O problema é que se está a ver que estão a injectar cada vez mais dinheiro, já vão nuns $2tr, e a situação financeira não dá sinais de melhora, antes pelo contrário.

A ideia com que se fica é que ninguém sabe ao certo o que se há-de fazer, andam a tentar coisas umas atrás das outras a ver o que é que resulta, mas até agora nada resultou. Só têm evitado ou adiado o pior. Mas isto assim não se aguenta eternamente.

De um tópico abaixo:

CHRONIC CREDIT WOES

The banks may not be dead, but they're still sick. So are those giant, complicated credit markets. JPMorgan analyst Thomas J. Lee noted that the markets for securities backed by residential and commercial mortgages have recently deteriorated to their worst levels since Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy.

The market needs a plan for these "toxic assets" -- either by selling them to private investors, or allowing banks to mark them differently. A failure by the government to deliver such a plan sparked a sell-off last month, and if investors don't get one soon, the market could be in for another tumble. Analysts aren't ruling out a Dow drop to 5,000, or an S&P decline to 500.

[Onorio]

Atomez :

Nao acho que seja necessario a AIG estoirar para a bola de neve começar a rebolar.

Dos $160bn injectados pela FED uma boa parte devera ter sido para cobrir os CD`S que a AIG tinha sobre o Lheman, ora a falencia de um "grande" podera fazer mais um rombo na AIG visto a sua exposiçao a CD`S.

Neste momento ha varios "grandes" em risco de insolvencia e talvez o "too big to fail" neste momento sirva mesmo para segurar a bola de neve.

[atomez]

Boas,
Caro ATOMEZ,o Sr fala da bolha gerada pelas BOND´s nos States???e no resto do Mundo ???
Corrija-me se estiver enganado! BN

Não, refiro-me aos Credit Default Swaps (CDS)

O maior emissor de CDS é a AIG que foi "salva" o ano passado por uma injecção massiva de capital pelo FED de $85bn inicialmente, mas agora já vai em $160bn e não se vê o fundo ao buraco.

A.I.G., Where Taxpayers’ Dollars Go to Die

Se a AIG estoirar, ou outra grande emissora de CDS, o efeito de bola de neve é incalculável.

E depois ainda há os Interest Rate Swaps, com um valor estimado em $464.7 triliões!

Os números são mais que assustadores...

Para se ter uma ideia, o PIB anual dos EUA ou da UE anda à volta dos $15tr.

2008 MID-YEAR MARKET SURVEY

Notional amounts of interest rate derivatives outstanding grew 22 percent to $464.7 trillion in the first half of 2008. For the year as a whole, interest rate derivatives notionals rose 34 percent.

The notional amount outstanding of credit default swaps (CDS) dropped 12 percent to $54.6 trillion in the first half of 2008. CDS notional growth was 20 percent for the year as a whole.

Notional amounts of equity derivatives grew 19 percent to $11.9 trillion in the first half of 2008. The annual growth rate was 19 percent.

In this survey, 78 firms provided data on interest rate swaps, 69 provided responses on credit derivatives, and 68 provided responses on equity derivatives. All major dealers responded.

[trader de elite]

Boas,
Caro ATOMEZ,o Sr fala da bolha gerada pelas BOND´s nos States???e no resto do Mundo ???
Corrija-me se estiver enganado! BN

[atomez]

O estoiro da Grande Bolha ainda está para se dar e não deve aguentar muito mais.

Muito maior que as dot.com e subprime.

Há algo como 60tr em jogo, mas ninguém sabe ao certo.

CDS -- Credit Dafult Swaps

Se a AIG estoira é o descalabro total.

[Fogueiro]

Comentário Semanal

Hoje houve um forte sinal que me fez vender muitas posições curtas: há hora a que decidi iniciar as vendas, o Indicador 2” (NYLOW) quase não registava novos mínimos de 52 semanas no NYSE! No fecho foram apenas 12. A venda de momento secou e o rali pode prolongar-se. O S&P500 fechou acima dos 750 e as subidas podem ser fortes.
Editado - Correcção: o Stock Charts esteve, durante o dia, a dar valores errados para o NYLOW. Agora indica 62 e não 12.
O VIX está na linha de água em 42,4 próximo da sua MM 40 semanas. Tanto pode ir para baixo como para cima.

Obviamente as nossas posições abertas foram fortemente afectadas. Se eu fosse futebolista diria uma das poucas frases completas que sabem: “agora é levantar a cabeça e pensar no próximo jogo” eheheh…

A liquidez tem máxima prioridade.

O Mercado subiu na 3ª feira 6% depois de uma queda de 40%. Só encontro paralelo no seu comportamento entre 1929 e 1932. Pelas descrições que li, foi uma época em que muitos se arruinaram e pouquíssimos fizeram fortuna.

As cautelas e os caldos de galinha estão a encher a minha panela…
Por isso acumulei mais liquidez, para atravessar esta fase e voltar a investir quando uma direcção for definida.
Penso que será novamente para baixo: a tendência de LP continua negativa.
Pelos fundamentais concluo que estamos num rali e não numa inversão de tendência.
Não creio que o rali chegue a Maio mas pode prolongar-se até Abril. Depende dos resultados que forem sendo apresentados pelas empresas, relativos ao 1º trimestre.

Quanto aos referidos fundamentais da economia, fui referindo-os durante a semana, não vou repetir-me.
Apenas alguns números mais recentes:
O Fed anunciou ontem que os americanos donos de casa perderam $18 tr do valor do seu património, em 2008.
Estimativas da contracção do crédito mundial apontam para $10 tr.

No Sector Financeiro reina grande confusão: anúncios de lucros sem quantificar provisões que terão de fazer (mas como estas são para mais tarde e sujeitas, talvez, a novas regras contabilísticas, ficam na gaveta) já deram pretexto para este rali.
Quando um Mercado está tão sobrevendido como na 2ª feira, qualquer pretexto serve!
Depois as notícias menos más são tidas como boas e o rali alimenta-se a si próprio.

Só temos de aguentar e esperar. Não desperdiçar liquidez e até a aumentar.
Como tantas vezes referi, ter razão antes de tempo é tão mau como não ter razão.
Prefiro não ter razão e ganhar do que ter razão e perder.

[Branc0]

Estou com o Fogueiro, estas subidas abruptas têm muito o cheiro a bear market rally. Não sei quanto tempo vai durar mas acredito que isto ainda vai ver novos mínimos.

[Fogueiro]

Segundo o Sam Collins, de que está acima o comentário de hoje, o fecho do S&P500 acima de 749 confirma o Bull. O Nasdaq também fechou acima da sua MM20 dias.

Para mim há dois internos do Mercado que divergem um pouco desta euforia: O NYLOW acima de 40 e os volumes no NYSE que foram, ontem e hoje, cerca de 20% abaixo do volume de anteontem, 1º dia do rali.

[Pata-Hari]

mais ou menos, carcanhol. Ele acha que o movimento não é convincente que chegue e que, a não ser que haja alguns dias de fortes subidas e um fecho acima da MM20, que considera que este rally já falhou (o que tem uma certa piada: se isto subir uma barbaridade, então é um rally. Se não subir, este rally já falhou ... niquito la palice, diria eu)