IRS, fundos de pensões e terrenos rústicos. Leia as respostas do consultório financeiro às suas perguntas

[Ulisses Pereira]

Gosto muito da sobriedade deste Rev Shark.

Rev Shark

"The Trouble With Consensus"
6/27/03 08:21 AM ET

"I'll admit it: I have a passion for contrarianism. I've hated being with the consensus ever since I was a child, when I gave up my obsession with KISS after several kids showed up at the Halloween carnival dressed as Gene Simmons. Working on Wall Street has obviously done nothing but reinforce my contrarian leaning, as it so often pays to simply bet against the crowd.

When everyone was bearish -- both on the site and in the polls back in March -- the smart bet was to go long. Everyone who wanted out of the market had gotten out. Eventually there was no one left to sell, and the buyers suddenly overwhelmed the supply. Big rally ever since, eh?

One reason why this market is so hard to trade right now is because there really doesn't seem to be an outright consensus of sentiment. I know the AAII numbers yesterday showed a new all-time low of bears -- at less than 10%. That's a shocking number. So too is the record spread in Chartcraft's II poll. That's all fine and bearish, but an interesting dynamic is affecting this market right now.

Liquidity from the Fed, refinancings and the heretofore-terrified retail investor are pulling the importance away from the hedge fund community and typical traders. Lately, it's just been outright irrelevant how the hedgies have been positioned. The money coming into the markets just continues to overwhelm supply. The hedge fund community, by and large, is expecting a big pullback and/or a second-half bear market. And so while we might see these polls with outright bullish numbers, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are a fair sample of the market.

While I expect that over the course of the next few months, more cash from the record refinancing of May and June will flow into the market, this dynamic will only work -- until it doesn't.

I often write that more sellers loom lower. If this market begins to break back down, if this economy doesn't really kick back into gear, a vicious cycle will likely take over this market. Selling will beget more selling and we could be set up for a big disappointment. "

(www.realmoney.com)