Wall Street fecha semana sem rumo. Grandes tecnológicas pressionam

[Pata-Hari]

Obrigado, eu, Andrade!

[andraderui]

andrade

[Pata-Hari]

Bem, ou fazes uma a uma, usando um editor de imagem, uma seca, ou clikando na imagem com o rato direito e usando as properties, com o link, metes a imagem. Ora deixa ver se resulta...

[andraderui]

Eu é que não consigo.
Já agora, como posso colocar imagens?
obrigado
andrade

[Pata-Hari]

Few Bearish Bets
by David Nichols

Yesterday was the first outright bearish day in quite some time, so it was a good opportunity to gauge how traders are currently feeling about stocks. The desire to get short for the inevitable reversal has been one of the primary factors keeping this uptrend chugging up the mountain. So when the selling kicked in this time, did the "hot money" quickly get bearish again?

It's becoming apparent that traders are all done with puts and shorts, at least for now. In fact, the conversion in sentiment among this group looks to be complete -- the relentless upwards pressure has finally succeeded in creating a "buy the dip" mentality among speculators. This has been a long time coming. But it means the market is actually in a position now to come back down to earth.

Although the VIX has been living in a very tight low range -- which is rare -- we can still get some important sentiment clues from it, although they are admittedly muted at the moment. On the previous pullbacks in this uptrend, traders were quick to jump on puts, sending the VIX higher. Not soaring, mind you -- just higher within the current range. Now we're not seeing this same desire to bet on an imminent big decline.



The unlikely market leader is the biotechnology sector. This fact, in and of itself, should be a warning to those espousing the credo that "the market always leads the economy." Biotech is going to pull up the economy? Hmmmm. Perhaps it's simply an environment of rampant speculation.

At least for the moment, speculators look to be in a mood to sell. Biotech got hammered again yesterday.



Speaking of an actual economic recovery, GE -- the biggest market cap stock in the world, and a wide-ranging industrial conglomerate -- had its outlook slashed by a few analysts ahead of its quarterly update because of worries about SARS and sluggish global markets. We'll see what GE itself has to say today. Undoubtedly their net income will be fine, as they will continue to slash costs further in an effort to keep the numbers looking nice for the headlines (and the careers of management). But investors need to hear some evidence of actual recovery soon in end markets, to match the recovery in the stock market. It's hard to say when this notion will cycle into the market's direct consciousness, but it will likely be a dominant theme as we head into the second half of the year.

Today is options expiration, which generally means the market will swing around a bit but not go too far in any particular direction. However, yesterday was a "one-way" day down, so the typical expiration mold has been broken, which happens about 3 or 4 times per year. Yesterday throws this particular expiration "up for grabs", momentum-wise.

Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis



SHORT-TERM: Remains in neutral, now with a slight bias toward an advance phase. Very slight.

MID-TERM: Progressed 9 points to 49% in its new (and wacky) advance phase. Our Confidence Diffusion Index (CDI) remained at a neutral level of ZERO.

LONG-TERM: Remained unchanged at 95/5 with our weekly CDI at 0 as well.

BOTTOM LINE: The tank's move down from 11% on June 13 to 0.3% has netted the SPX about 7 points' advance. Yesterday's decline saw no increase in bearish sentiment. The market is getting pretty desensitized to the possibility of decline. That is, the market perceives there being very little risk of serious decline. The Put/Call ratio dropped to 0.54 yesterday. That may be a function of today's Expiration. But that suggests that very little downside protection is being purchased.

In reality that situation presents a high risk, not the perceived low risk.

We may see this complacency persist through month-end due to quarter-ending window dressing, but this complacency is troubling to say the least.

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[andraderui]

Até já
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Moi, please

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