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Caldeirão da Bolsa

Dados pra hoje ...

Espaço dedicado a todo o tipo de troca de impressões sobre os mercados financeiros e ao que possa condicionar o desempenho dos mesmos.

por DC89 » 2/6/2008 8:32

Na agenda esta semana

Esta semana destaca-se para os EUA, a publicação do ISM das manufacturas de Maio (2ªfeira), indicador que no mês passado se manteve inalterado em 48.6 pontos, as previsões apontam para que a actividade no sector continue em contracção. Ainda na segunda-feira, serão publicados os gastos no sector da construção referentes a Abril, que deverão manter a tendência de queda reflectindo os problemas do sector imobiliário norte-americano. Será importante ainda acompanhar a divulgação do relatório de emprego de Maio (6ªfeira) de modo a aferir como é que as empresas reagiram em termos níveis de emprego, num mês em que se deverá ter começado a sentir o impacto do estímulo aos consumidores.
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por EuroVerde » 30/5/2008 18:25

Há aqui muitas contradições.
O FED ao baixar juros, faz aumentar o petróleo e por sua vez a inflação - o dólar desvaloriza.
Ao baixar juros, o FED está a tentar dar animo ao consumo, mas como os preços do petróleo aumentam, isso trona-se num travão duplo à economia. Efeitos inflaccionistas e menos consumo e investimento.
A bolsa terá que descontar ainda mais. O preço do petróleo vai continuar a subir, e as instituições de crédito vão continuar a cortar no acesso ao crédito.
Neste momento há empresas baratas e empresas caras, e o petróleo vai para níveis que vão aniquilar a procura. Quando se aniquila a procura as empresas (todas - e aqui não há meio termo) estarão baratas face ao futuro. Mas esse momento ainda não chegou ou, está para chegar. :x
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por cest » 30/5/2008 18:07

Já li algures que as bolsas antecipam em pelo menos 6 meses o estado real da economia. Daqui por mais 6 meses como andarão os movimentos das taxas? Confesso que para mim isto é um pouco complexo porque não tenho formação específica para este tipo de análise, no entanto creio existirem dois factores preponderantes nos movimentos das taxas, a expansão ou contracção da economia e as consequentes pressões inflacionárias. Creio que podem subir para conter a expansão das economias quando esta é repentina e o aumento da inflação, pelo contrário, quando a economia contrai, normalmente descem as taxas, agora, e isto penso eu, o ideal é haver uma expansão da economia de forma gradual e como é evidente manter os niveis da inflação sobre controlo. É essa linha tenue que faz as bolsas subirem, e andar no fio da navalha não é fácil. Bn.
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por TP1 » 30/5/2008 17:33

cest Escreveu:Quanto mais noticias boas sairem mais sobe a probabilidade de subida de taxas, bom mesmo era as coisas andarem naquela linha tenue que possibilita as subidas dos mercados he he he... Parece estranho mas olhem que não é.A possibilidade de subir o.25 neste momento é de 33%. Convem que os numeros não sejam acima das espectativas, senão lá vamos ter aquela lenga lenga de que as bolsas desceram porque as taxas vão subir blá blá blá. Não é tambem verdade que subiram quando as taxas desceram? Confuso esta coisa dos mercados, ou sou eu que já não estou bem?

Abraços e bom final de semana.


Hummm, se leres com atenção o caldeirão e analisares os mercados, vais ver que as subidas das bolsas, regra geral, acompanham as subidas das taxas de juro... :wink:
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por cest » 30/5/2008 17:26

Quanto mais noticias boas sairem mais sobe a probabilidade de subida de taxas, bom mesmo era as coisas andarem naquela linha tenue que possibilita as subidas dos mercados he he he... Parece estranho mas olhem que não é.A possibilidade de subir o.25 neste momento é de 33%. Convem que os numeros não sejam acima das espectativas, senão lá vamos ter aquela lenga lenga de que as bolsas desceram porque as taxas vão subir blá blá blá. Não é tambem verdade que subiram quando as taxas desceram? Confuso esta coisa dos mercados, ou sou eu que já não estou bem?

Abraços e bom final de semana.
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por SirPatrickBateman » 30/5/2008 15:24

The Mechanic Escreveu:
The problem is those guys in that freaking Caldeirão de Bolsa - Blumberg

New Alcains de Azeitão - Recent comments from the high commander of the FEDE , blame the people from Caldeirão de Bolsa for the recent falls in the Stock Markets : " They`re always arguing and speaking about bad news . Freaking Portuguese traders ! Always nha-nha-nha and sh** ... We are going to summon The Mechanic and he`ll bring some good news again ...otherwise , we are doomed ..."
This comments report to the fact that no good news are being commented in this sinfull place , reminding Wall Street that this traders in Portugal are all about crying and singing Fado and eating sardines ...
Meanwhile, Oil is reaching new records, but they don`t give a damn , because the are smashing their heads against walls and planning to go to the street , driving their cars slowly to protest against Galp and BP . In the process , they will spend gallons and gallons of oil , but they don`t care as long as they can cry inside their cars about how miserable they feel .
The Portuguese Analist Marcelo Rebelo the Sousa recomends people to read books about foreign places and watch out for girls with crabs , until Oil gets down from 130 USD . "



One of the most priceless moments in the history of Caldeirão de Bolsa!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
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[b]A Guerra ou a Bolha...[/b]

por msoares36 » 30/5/2008 14:49

The Mechanic Escreveu:... isto está a precisar de uma Guerra prás coisas voltarem à normalidade .


Pessoalmente prefiro a Bolha... e que não seja uma guerra para sair dela... :mrgreen:

Cumprimentos.

Soares
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por bogos » 30/5/2008 14:07

The Mechanic Escreveu:Bom quadro msoares ...

European Inflation Accelerates More Than Forecast

By Fergal O'Brien

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- European inflation accelerated faster than economists forecast this month as oil prices jumped to a record, adding to what European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has called policy makers' ``biggest challenge.''

The inflation rate in the euro area rose to 3.6 percent, matching a 16-year high, from 3.3 percent in April, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said in a statement today. Economists had forecast a 3.5 percent rate, according to the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The ECB, which aims to keep consumer-price growth below 2 percent, said yesterday there are signs inflation expectations ``have been trending up recently'' and it's imperative that they remain contained. The Frankfurt-based bank celebrates its 10th anniversary this weekend, having failed to meet its target for the last eight years, and holds its next policy meeting June 5.

This ``will probably encourage speculation that the ECB may pull the rate trigger later this year, the growth slowdown notwithstanding,'' said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. ``Investors better brace themselves for an ultra-hawkish statement from the ECB president at next week's press conference.''

Separate figures published by the statistics office today show that unemployment in the euro area remained at a record low of 7.1 percent in April.



Continuem a deixar o Petroleo subir ( não é que vocês possam fazer alguma coisa ...excluindo aquilo de invadir o Irão ...ou anexar a Venezuela...o fazer da Nigéria um país Europeu... ) e vão ver os records a cair uns atrás dos outros .

... isto está a precisar de uma Guerra prás coisas voltarem à normalidade .
( pensamento absurdo , estapafurdio , insensato e estranho à primeira vista, mas...ora pensem lá outra vez e abstraiam-se daquele factorzito de ser perderem vidas ...e tal...)


Um abraço ,

The Mechanic


Já aqui referi o facto umas vezes... A dor de uns é a salvação de muitos.
Infelizmente num mundo de recursos escassos, as guerras não são necessárias, são mesmo inevitáveis...

Ou se faz isto devagar, devagarinho.... ou a lei da bala é que manda.

Cumps
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por The Mechanic » 30/5/2008 14:04

Bom quadro msoares ...

European Inflation Accelerates More Than Forecast

By Fergal O'Brien

May 30 (Bloomberg) -- European inflation accelerated faster than economists forecast this month as oil prices jumped to a record, adding to what European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has called policy makers' ``biggest challenge.''

The inflation rate in the euro area rose to 3.6 percent, matching a 16-year high, from 3.3 percent in April, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said in a statement today. Economists had forecast a 3.5 percent rate, according to the median of 36 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The ECB, which aims to keep consumer-price growth below 2 percent, said yesterday there are signs inflation expectations ``have been trending up recently'' and it's imperative that they remain contained. The Frankfurt-based bank celebrates its 10th anniversary this weekend, having failed to meet its target for the last eight years, and holds its next policy meeting June 5.

This ``will probably encourage speculation that the ECB may pull the rate trigger later this year, the growth slowdown notwithstanding,'' said Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group in Amsterdam. ``Investors better brace themselves for an ultra-hawkish statement from the ECB president at next week's press conference.''

Separate figures published by the statistics office today show that unemployment in the euro area remained at a record low of 7.1 percent in April.



Continuem a deixar o Petroleo subir ( não é que vocês possam fazer alguma coisa ...excluindo aquilo de invadir o Irão ...ou anexar a Venezuela...o fazer da Nigéria um país Europeu... ) e vão ver os records a cair uns atrás dos outros .

... isto está a precisar de uma Guerra prás coisas voltarem à normalidade .
( pensamento absurdo , estapafurdio , insensato e estranho à primeira vista, mas...ora pensem lá outra vez e abstraiam-se daquele factorzito de ser perderem vidas ...e tal...)


Um abraço ,

The Mechanic
" Os que hesitam , são atropelados pela retaguarda" - Stendhal
"É óptimo não se exercer qualquer profissão, pois um homem livre não deve viver para servir outro "
- Aristoteles

http://theflyingmechanic.blogspot.com/
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Noticias, hoje...

por msoares36 » 30/5/2008 12:12

sumário... :wink:
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por vold » 29/5/2008 16:35

"priceless" :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

a do marcelo rebelo de sousa ta genial :mrgreen:
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por scpnuno » 29/5/2008 16:26

:shock:

Agora pirou de vez....

Olha lá, que raio de cogumelos andas tu comer??? Eu não posso propriamente desatar à gargalhada dentro de um gabinete onde estou completamente sozinha... acho que já me marcaram uma consulta de psiquiatria (que, verdade seja dita, bem falta me fazia)
Esta é a vantagem da ambição:
Podes não chegar á Lua
Mas tiraste os pés do chão...
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por The Mechanic » 29/5/2008 16:13

Today , we`ll broadcast in English just to screw the guys that can`t understand neck ( in French ) about this language .


The problem is those guys in that freaking Caldeirão de Bolsa - Blumberg

New Alcains de Azeitão - Recent comments from the high commander of the FEDE , blame the people from Caldeirão de Bolsa for the recent falls in the Stock Markets : " They`re always arguing and speaking about bad news . Freaking Portuguese traders ! Always nha-nha-nha and sh** ... We are going to summon The Mechanic and he`ll bring some good news again ...otherwise , we are doomed ..."
This comments report to the fact that no good news are being commented in this sinfull place , reminding Wall Street that this traders in Portugal are all about crying and singing Fado and eating sardines ...
Meanwhile, Oil is reaching new records, but they don`t give a damn , because the are smashing their heads against walls and planning to go to the street , driving their cars slowly to protest against Galp and BP . In the process , they will spend gallons and gallons of oil , but they don`t care as long as they can cry inside their cars about how miserable they feel .
The Portuguese Analist Marcelo Rebelo the Sousa recomends people to read books about foreign places and watch out for girls with crabs , until Oil gets down from 130 USD . "



U.S. Economy Expands Faster Than Previously Estimated By Shobhana Chandra

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated in the first quarter as Americans bought fewer goods from abroad, helping the trade deficit shrink to a five-year low.

The 0.9 percent gain in gross domestic product from January through March compares with the government's advance estimate of 0.6 percent issued in April, according to revised figures from the Commerce Department today in Washington.

Trade remains the bright spot for an economy that is likely to slow this quarter as surging fuel and food bills and falling home values force consumers to cut back. The shortfall in trade also narrowed as exports, stoked by growth abroad and a weaker dollar, climbed to a record.

``We are somewhere in the twilight zone between an expansion and a recession,'' said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``We will have a poor pace of growth through the year.''

A separate report today showed that initial claims for unemployment insurance were higher than economists had forecast last week. First-time claims rose to 372,000 from 368,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported.

Treasuries, which had dropped earlier in the day, pared their losses. Ten-year notes yielded 4.06 percent at 9:01 a.m. in New York, from 4 percent late yesterday.

While a recession is often described as consecutive declines in GDP, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter in the U.S., defines contractions as a ``significant'' decrease in activity over a sustained period of time.




About the Gas Stations and their price politics, we`ll quote now Mr. Berardo :
" ..ck you and ..ck you and ..ck you ! May a plague of fleas storm into your asses and your arms shrink so you can`t scratch it... "


Well , this is all for now ...tomorrow we`ll have light rain in the morning but bright skies in the afternoon .Night will be black.


With best regards,

The Mechanic
" Os que hesitam , são atropelados pela retaguarda" - Stendhal
"É óptimo não se exercer qualquer profissão, pois um homem livre não deve viver para servir outro "
- Aristoteles

http://theflyingmechanic.blogspot.com/
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por TP1 » 29/5/2008 15:52

RRikota Escreveu:Então mas que se passa como os inventários do crude lá nas americas???

"The drop was due to temporary delays in crude-oil tanker off-loadings on the Gulf Coast" @ marketwatch

As reservas de Crude da semana passada são as mais baixas dos ultimos 3 anos ???

Então mas economia não estava a abrandar?
"temporary delays" não era pra isto....a menos que fossem "temporary delays" à portuguesa...

Que quer isto dizer? :shock:


A abrandar?? O GDP superior ao 1º trimestre de 2007 e um consumo louco de petroleo... está a abrandar?? :shock:
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por RRikota » 29/5/2008 15:44

Então mas que se passa como os inventários do crude lá nas americas???

"The drop was due to temporary delays in crude-oil tanker off-loadings on the Gulf Coast" @ marketwatch

As reservas de Crude da semana passada são as mais baixas dos ultimos 3 anos ???

Então mas economia não estava a abrandar?
"temporary delays" não era pra isto....a menos que fossem "temporary delays" à portuguesa...

Que quer isto dizer? :shock:
 
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Voltou a ovelha negra!

por carcanhol » 29/5/2008 15:37

Estava tudo a sunir lindamente eis senão quando, os americanos avisam que estão sem petrólio e o preço do crude a disparar! Pumm!

A ovelha negra contunia a semear o terror nos mercados! Mééééé mééééé :oh:
"I love the semel of Dax in the morning,...semel´s like victory" frase famosa da autoria de um militar americano no Vietenam :mrgreen:
 
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por petar » 29/5/2008 13:39

8:30U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims fall 2,500 to 370,500


8:30U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 36,000 to 3.10 mln


8:30U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise 4,000 to 372,000


FIRST-QUARTER U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH REVISED HIGHER TO 0.9% RATE
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - Keynes
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Últimas

por Robin Citadino » 28/5/2008 13:34

Boas,

28 May 2008 at 12:31:06 (GMT)
Dados EUA: Durable Goods Orders: -0.5 (esp: -1.5%); Durables Ex Transportation: 2.5 (esp: -0.5%).


Siga para bingo :wink:

BN
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por J.Smith » 27/5/2008 16:07

Vamos às ultimas noticias dos States uma boa e uma má.

A má:

U.S. Consumer Confidence Declines to 15 1/2-Year Low

Confidence among U.S. consumers fell to the lowest level in more than 15 years, raising the risk that spending will slump and prolong an economic slowdown.

The Conference Board's confidence index declined more than forecast to 57.2, the lowest level since October 1992, from a revised 62.8 in April, the New York-based research group said today. A report earlier today showed property prices in March tumbled the most in at least seven years.


A boa:

U.S. new-home sales rise in April

Economists doubt upturn signals a rebound in the market.

Sales of new homes rose during April for the first time in six months, but economists say it isn't cause for celebration that the nation's housing market is turning around.
Sales rose 3.3% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000, marking the first gain since last October, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.


Como se costuma dizer " uma mão lava a outra" e assim , como os mercados vêm de quedas da semana passada, esta semana deveremos ter uma pequena subida, mas será sol de pouca dura.

Um abraço
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por Onorio » 27/5/2008 14:36

Ora bem, sem noticias futuros RED, más noticias futuros GREEN.
Acho q isto hj vai para cima pq 3 dias sem trade é mto dia....
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por Onorio » 27/5/2008 14:36

Ora bem, sem noticias futuros RED, más noticias futuros GREEN.
Acho q isto hj vai para cima pq 3 dias sem trade é mto dia....
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por J.Smith » 27/5/2008 14:28

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home-Price Index Fell 14.4% in March

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in March by the most on record, pointing to continued weakness in the housing market that will further drag on the economy.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 14.4 percent from a year earlier, more than forecast and the most since the figures were first published in 2001. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007.



A coisa tá preta
:shock: :shock: :shock:
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por manicospic » 27/5/2008 14:17

Corrijam-me se eu estiver enganado mas estes dados que já sairam não são piores que o esperado ainda que por pequena margem?


Dados EUA: S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI QoQ/YoY 159.2/-14.1 vs. 170.6/-8.9 anterior

Dados EUA: S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind 172.2 vs 176.0 anterior (revisto de 175.9). *S&P/CS Composite -20YoY -14.4% vs -14.2% esperado e anterior -12.7%
 
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por J.Smith » 27/5/2008 13:43

Aqui o que se esta à espera para esta semana nos States. Depois das recentes quedas podera haver algumas oportunidades para fazer bons negocios, estejam atentos.

Um abraço

J.Smith


Stocks Set for Minor Pullback

tock index futures were pointing to a lower open for Wall Street Tuesday as traders emerged from the long weekend in an uneasy mood following last week's big pullback.

S&P 500 futures were losing 2 points to 1371 and were nearly 5 points under fair value. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 were flat at 1958 and were 3 points below fair value.

In the prior session, stocks capped off a losing week with another slide as oil got back on an upward track and dismal news surfaced on the corporate front. In the end, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 146 points to 12,480, and the S&P 500 lost 18 points to 1376. The Nasdaq Composite shed 20 points at 2445.

Among companies in the new session, Infineon Technologies announced after the German market closed Monday that CEO Wolfgang Ziebart has resigned "due to different opinions on the future strategic orientation of the company." The chip company said Peter Bauer, a member of the management board, will assume the role of spokesman for that body.

Also departing will be the chief of Britain-based Vodafone, which preliminarily announced that its full-year adjusted operating profit climbed 5.7% to $19.9 billion on a 14.1% jump in sales. CEO Arun Sarin will step down in July and be replaced by Vittorio Colao.

Elsewhere, a Belgian business paper reported that Belgian beer giant InBev could start merger negotiations with Budweiser purveyor Anheuser-Busch as early as today. On Friday, the Financial Times said it was preparing a bid worth $46 billion, or $65 a share.

As for analyst actions, Citigroup upped American Axle to buy from hold after Friday's news that striking workers at the company had finally voted to accept an amended employment agreement and go back to work. The three-month strike had idled several General Motors plants, as American Axle is one of GM's main parts suppliers.

GM, on the other hand, was cut to hold from buy at Citi. The automaker said Friday that the strike had cost it $1.8 billion before taxes in the second quarter.

Separately, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded oil-and-gas name Newfield Exploration to buy from hold, and Knight Transportation was lifted to outperform at Wachovia.

A bit later, investors will be looking for fresh clues on the state of the American consumer as the Conference Board puts out its May consumer-confidence numbers. The report is due at 10 a.m., as are new-home-sales data from the Commerce Department.

Among commodities, crude oil was up $1.21 to $133.40 a barrel, and gold futures were rising $2.70 to $923.10 an ounce. The U.S. dollar firmed by 0.1% against the euro at $1.5756 and tacked on 0.4% against the yen to 103.80.

Treasury prices were falling. The 10-year note was off 5/32 in price to yield 3.86%, and the 30-year bond sank 15/32 in price, yielding 4.60%.

Foreign markets were mixed. The Nikkei 225 in Tokyo bounced 1.5% overnight, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed by 0.6%. In Europe, however, the FTSE 100 and Germany's Xetra Dax each surrendered 0.4%. The Paris Cac slid 0.8%.
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Vou meter a colher....

por dnr » 27/5/2008 12:40

Caros colegas, como ainda não vi esta matéria hoje aqui, tomo a liberdade de passar para voces o que li na CNN.

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks looked set for a weak open Tuesday after the holiday weekend, as high oil prices and uncertainty about the economic outlook kept investors uneasy.

At 5:35 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower and pointing to a negative start for Wall Street.

Stocks sank Friday amid surging oil prices and another weak reading on the housing market. U.S. markets were closed Monday for Memorial Day.

Crude prices held above $133 a barrel Tuesday, supported by supply concerns and worries about the health of the U.S. economy. A barrel of U.S. crude rose 95 cents to$133.14 a barrel in electronic trading.

On the economic front, readings on consumer confidence and new home sales are both due out at 10 a.m. ET.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast that the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence edged lower to 61 in May from 62.3. New home sales in April are expected to have slowed to an annual pace of 520,000 from 526,000.

Companies to watch include Borders Group (BGP). The bookseller, which has said it may put itself up for sale, is due to report quarterly results after the market close. The company launched Tuesday a site for selling books online, marking its return to Web retailing.

Mobile phone operator Vodafone (VOD) said its CEO Arun Sarin is stepping down. The surprise announcement came after the company reported swinging to a profit for the full year. Vodafone shares rallied 1% in London.

In global trade, Asian stocks ended mostly higher. European shares mostly fell in morning trading. U.K. markets were closed Monday.
Saudações
DNR
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