James "Rev Shark" De Porre - Morning Outlook
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Pois, concordo com uma coisa
O verdadeiro teste será no pullback e no que os bulls irão fazer
Pessoalmente acho vão fugir e isto vai quebrar novamente, mas nunca se sabe...
Um abraço Ulisses e obrigado pelo artigo
Pessoalmente acho vão fugir e isto vai quebrar novamente, mas nunca se sabe...
Um abraço Ulisses e obrigado pelo artigo
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James "Rev Shark" De Porre - Morning Outlook
Gosto muito da sobriedade deste Rev Shark. Se calhar gosto porque, geralmente, está em linha com o que eu penso. Ai esta tendência de se apreciar quem concorda connosco... 
James "Rev Shark" De Porre
Morning Outlook
5/13/03 07:51 AM ET
" "No wise combatant underestimates his antagonist."
-- Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
It seems fairly clear that the bears have been underestimating the strength of the bulls. The market continues to act extremely well even in the absence of any clear positive news to drive it. Yesterday, an upgrade of Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) was about the only specific news that the bulls could focus on, but the mood of the buyers was positive and optimistic enough that not much else was needed.
Although volume was just OK the really impressive thing was the strong breadth and the large number of stocks hitting new 12-month highs. This has been a very broad advance and its obvious buyers are searching high and low to find places to put some cash to work.
The bears' reaction to this recent strength is to grumble, "We've seen this before and it won't be any different this time." The bears are confident that when buyers ignore valuations and chase extended technology stocks it is just a matter of time before their greed is punished. It's been the case for over three years now and the bears are convinced valuations are still stratospheric.
Perhaps that is so but I feel much more sanguine about the state of the market. I certainly would not be surprised to see a pullback but I continue to feel that we are seeing a major change in character that will play out longer term. We probably have a big pullback in our future but I believe that we have seen the bear market lows and that at worst we will see a very wide trading range in the future.
What will be interesting to watch is how the bulls act when we do see a pullback. My guess is that the bulls who have missed this recent party are going to be fairly aggressive buyers if they see better prices. There are going to be folks who will want to be in this market and the low bond yields are likely to trigger further allocation into equities at some point. The single biggest positive for the market is the very high levels of cash in money market and bank accounts. Mutual funds may not have a lot of cash on hand but there is cash on the sidelines that will slowly come back into this market as consumer and investor confidence improves. That is the biggest positive for the bulls.
In the early going a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia that killed at least 10 Americans is pressuring futures a bit. However, European stocks, which reacted negatively to the news at first, have been steadily improving. This market does need a pullback and I would not be surprised to see this attack used as an excuse to justify one.
The news docket is fairly quiet again. There are a few earnings reports from the likes of Wal Mart and Applied Materials due but the only economic news of consequence is retail sales numbers tomorrow.
Merrill Lynch is downgrading a number of semiconductors to neutral today. The analyst claims that much of the first-quarter performance was merely a "supply chain phenomenon" and that customers are making it clear that things aren't improving as fast as some may hope.
Downgraded are ATYT, ISIL, MXIM, NVDA and SMTC. Downgrades of this sort are a good test of the bulls. Can they shake it off and keep things going and will it cause cracks in the recent uptrend?
We have seen little news to undermine the positive mood of the bulls lately but with the market fairly extended watch for the inclination to seize on something negative to justify some sort of pullback. Dip buyers have been rewarded lately so we can expect them to stay fairly active. They are not going to stop until they are burned a few times.
The true test of this market is going to be how it handles a pullback and/or profit taking. Once we see how the bulls deal with a little adversity we'll have a better feel for the overall health of this market. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
James "Rev Shark" De Porre
Morning Outlook
5/13/03 07:51 AM ET
" "No wise combatant underestimates his antagonist."
-- Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
It seems fairly clear that the bears have been underestimating the strength of the bulls. The market continues to act extremely well even in the absence of any clear positive news to drive it. Yesterday, an upgrade of Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) was about the only specific news that the bulls could focus on, but the mood of the buyers was positive and optimistic enough that not much else was needed.
Although volume was just OK the really impressive thing was the strong breadth and the large number of stocks hitting new 12-month highs. This has been a very broad advance and its obvious buyers are searching high and low to find places to put some cash to work.
The bears' reaction to this recent strength is to grumble, "We've seen this before and it won't be any different this time." The bears are confident that when buyers ignore valuations and chase extended technology stocks it is just a matter of time before their greed is punished. It's been the case for over three years now and the bears are convinced valuations are still stratospheric.
Perhaps that is so but I feel much more sanguine about the state of the market. I certainly would not be surprised to see a pullback but I continue to feel that we are seeing a major change in character that will play out longer term. We probably have a big pullback in our future but I believe that we have seen the bear market lows and that at worst we will see a very wide trading range in the future.
What will be interesting to watch is how the bulls act when we do see a pullback. My guess is that the bulls who have missed this recent party are going to be fairly aggressive buyers if they see better prices. There are going to be folks who will want to be in this market and the low bond yields are likely to trigger further allocation into equities at some point. The single biggest positive for the market is the very high levels of cash in money market and bank accounts. Mutual funds may not have a lot of cash on hand but there is cash on the sidelines that will slowly come back into this market as consumer and investor confidence improves. That is the biggest positive for the bulls.
In the early going a terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia that killed at least 10 Americans is pressuring futures a bit. However, European stocks, which reacted negatively to the news at first, have been steadily improving. This market does need a pullback and I would not be surprised to see this attack used as an excuse to justify one.
The news docket is fairly quiet again. There are a few earnings reports from the likes of Wal Mart and Applied Materials due but the only economic news of consequence is retail sales numbers tomorrow.
Merrill Lynch is downgrading a number of semiconductors to neutral today. The analyst claims that much of the first-quarter performance was merely a "supply chain phenomenon" and that customers are making it clear that things aren't improving as fast as some may hope.
Downgraded are ATYT, ISIL, MXIM, NVDA and SMTC. Downgrades of this sort are a good test of the bulls. Can they shake it off and keep things going and will it cause cracks in the recent uptrend?
We have seen little news to undermine the positive mood of the bulls lately but with the market fairly extended watch for the inclination to seize on something negative to justify some sort of pullback. Dip buyers have been rewarded lately so we can expect them to stay fairly active. They are not going to stop until they are burned a few times.
The true test of this market is going to be how it handles a pullback and/or profit taking. Once we see how the bulls deal with a little adversity we'll have a better feel for the overall health of this market. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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