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Fed Says Economy Slowed at Year-End, With Sales `Disappointi

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Fed Says Economy Slowed at Year-End, With Sales `Disappointi

por M42 » 16/1/2008 20:16

By Steve Matthews

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve said economic activity increased ``at a slower pace'' in late November and December, with districts reporting ``disappointing'' holiday sales.

``Economic activity increased modestly during the survey period,'' though ``at a slower pace,'' the central bank said in its regional business survey, known as the Beige Book for the color of its cover. ``Most reports on retail activity indicated subdued holiday spending and further weakness in auto sales.''

The report provided anecdotal evidence the economy is slowing, a day before Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to testify on the outlook at Congress. Bernanke said last week more rate cuts ``may well be necessary'' after 1 percentage point of reductions since September to buttress growth.

``The economy is slowing down rapidly,'' Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Reinsurance Co. in New York, said before the report. ``Manufacturing seems to be softening. We are pretty much on the knife's edge'' of heading into recession.

Traders anticipate the Federal Open Market Committee will cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, to 3.75 percent, this month, futures show.

``Residential real estate conditions continued to be quite weak in all districts,'' and lenders were cautious in making loans, today's report showed. ``Most districts cited tighter credit standards.''

Production Stalls

Economic figures released today highlighted the risks the Fed faces on growth, with inflation concerns receding. Consumer prices rose increased 0.3 percent in December after a 0.8 percent gain in November, while output at U.S. factories was unchanged in December, separate reports showed.

The Beige Book said increases in prices were ``widely reported'' for food and energy, while wage increases were ``moderate.''

The Fed's preferred gauge of consumer prices rose 2.2 percent in November from a year before, the most since March. The three-month annualized rate for the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, was 2.6 percent.

Fed officials are next scheduled to meet Jan. 29-30.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said Jan. 11 that the economy had slowed ``considerably'' and the housing slump may hurt consumer spending.

``The combined weakness in wealth -- that is both housing wealth and stock market wealth -- and some softness in employment growth seem to be suggesting that the robustness of consumer spending going forward may not be as healthy as we thought it was just a few months ago,'' Plosser said an interview with PBS television's Nightly Business Report.

The Beige Book's regional anecdotes are gathered through hundreds of telephone calls, news clippings and personal contact by the staff of the 12 Fed banks, whose districts cover all 50 U.S. states. The anecdotes are designed to supplement quantitative forecasts of the Board of Governors staff.

The January Beige Book was prepared by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank.

To contact the reporters on this story: Steve Matthews in Atlanta at smatthews@bloomberg.net ;

Last Updated: January 16, 2008 14:02 EST
 
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