Montenegro anuncia redução de IRS nas rendas, isenção de mais-valias e maior dedução à coleta

[Dmca]

Caro Ulisses,

Este texto que colocou, traduzido para a língua de camões, resumidamente, fala sobre? peço desculpa mas o meu inglês não é muito abundante.

Cmps

Resumidamente quer dizer que todas as barreiras pesicológicas de descida estão a ser batidos, com vendas sem termo e abundantes, provocando o chamado Panic-Sell, e pior ainda que é que o fim não está á vista, pois actulmente, salvo seja os gráficos existentes estão quase sem validade, não se sabendo aonde é que isto vai parar... + - isto...

Só uma coisa, isto é a opinião de uma nalista, portanto qualquer semelahnça com realidade é pura coinidência...

[Ulisses Pereira]

Obrigado pela preciosa ajudar Sir

Grande abraço,
Ulisses

[SirPatrickBateman]

No fundo... esta analista acha que consegue antecipar mudanças de rumo com a leitura de divergências em termos de sinais tecnicos.

Estaremos perto de um "washout"... significa que a quedra, na opinião dela, poderá estar no final... mas não sem que antes aconteça uma escorregadela das grandes.

é como um final em "encore"!

[phenix08]

Caro Ulisses,

Este texto que colocou, traduzido para a língua de camões, resumidamente, fala sobre? peço desculpa mas o meu inglês não é muito abundante.

Cmps

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Close to a Washout"

By Helene Meisler
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/9/2008 8:14 AM EST

"I am not prone to bullishness. We all know that. Many times I have been looking for a bottom, and immediately after the initial bounce off the lows, I start complaining. Then my inbox fills up with folks annoyed that I'm complaining about the rally.

But that's what I do. I look for flaws in the market, on the upside and the downside.

There are people who prefer to play the trend and wait to see how it develops; I prefer to look for divergences. That means I am going to tend to be early because divergences develop over time -- they are usually there more than once or even two or three times before they mean something.

Yesterday's column was written for Doug Kass, who had asked me to be bullish with him. I cited a few indicators that could help his bullish cause. Those same indicators showed up again after yesterday's debacle in the market.

We finally got the break of S&P 1400. We also got fewer stocks making new lows. In fact, take a look at this chart of the new lows dating back to last summer.

Not only have we broken 1400, we have broken last summer's closing low -- and yet there are less than half the stocks making new lows now as there were then.

Now, maybe a trip down through 1370 on the S&P will triple the new lows, but so far it hasn't.

And considering how lousy the financials are, the cumulative advance/decline line has not yet made a lower low vs. August. I find that too to be a divergence I can't explain.

The oscillator I use will be oversold later this week. Weak markets get oversold and stay there, just the same way strong markets get overbought and stay there. So being oversold alone is not a reason to have a rally.

I can't say that the VIX got jumpy yesterday; it went up is the best I can say. But the index put/call ratio finally chimed in at 201%. That on its own isn't that big of a deal, especially considering we had several days over 200% and a few over 300% in August, but it was the equity put/call ratio that really caught my eye.

The equity put/call ratio was one of my consistent complaints on the rise upward, as it had readings in the 50s time and again. Well, yesterday it soared to 97%. The last time it went to this level was Nov. 15. The next day, many of the mo-mo stocks made their lows.



The previous time was Aug. 15 and 16, and we already know the Fed saved us from our own misery on the 17th. Prior to that was March 28, which was also close to a low in the market.

This is not to say we're looking at a great low -- as I said yesterday, I think we're looking at an oversold rally at best. None of the intermediate-term indicators are where they should be for a lasting rally. A big down opening today could lead to a short-term whoosh. Either way, we're getting to the point where no one believes a rally can stick, which usually means we're quite close to at least a one-day wonder on the upside. "

(in www.realmoney.com)