Fed mantém juros pela quarta reunião consecutiva. Continua a ver dois cortes este ano

[atomez]

Bem, finalmente percebi que com o "meu" Firefox não dava,...

atão na dá?

firefox 3 beta 1 funca na boa

[scpnuno]

Bem, finalmente percebi que com o "meu" Firefox não dava, e, paciência, lá tive que recuperar o velho Explorer... mas agora já entrou a minha, também velhinha, locomotiva a vapor... eheheh
...

Fogueiro!!!

Ainda bem que chegas! A malta anda aqui a contar espingardas, que houve quem se perdeu nesta ardua caminhada que fizemos do caldeirao até ao ...caldeirão!
A fase seguinte é andar de cana de pesca a apanhar os perdidos....

(a ultima frase do teu post não é ...hummm...um bocadinho assim a modos que.... já lhe ouvi chamar muita coisa, locomotiva foi a 1ª vez)

Beijocas

[Fogueiro]

Bem, finalmente percebi que com o "meu" Firefox não dava, e, paciência, lá tive que recuperar o velho Explorer... mas agora já entrou a minha, também velhinha, locomotiva a vapor... eheheh
...

[luiz22]

Zona euro 2007-11-30 10:41
BCE vai abastecer o mercado com suficiente liquidez até ao final do ano
O Banco Central Europeu (BCE) anunciou hoje que vai injectar liquidez suficiente no mercado até ao final de 2007 para manter as taxas de juro a curto prazo próximo da taxa mínima de referência.

Mafalda Aguilar

Num comunicado de imprensa, citado pelo site 'Invertia', o BCE reiterou ainda a mensagem que transmitiu na passada sexta-feira de que notou o reaparecimento de tensões no mercado de dinheiro

[acintra]

O mais engracado é que a america vai ser comprada com o proprio dinheiro deles, uma chapada de luva branca, os Arabes vendem-lhes os petroleo, e depois começam a comprar as empresas americanas, já apareceu um que investiu 5% no Citigroup, acho que isto não vai ficar por aqui, os arabes vão invadir os EUA com o dinheiro do Crude.

Neste momento ou entra dolar fresco e não interessa a proveniênçia ou vai tudo pelo cano.

Recipe for a meltdown
The primary culprits behind the market turmoil are sky-high stock prices -- and it's only going to get worse, writes Fortune's Shawn Tully.
By Shawn Tully, Fortune editor at large



Major stock gauges have fallen more than 10 percent, the official signal of a correction. They're about to drop a lot more.
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(Fortune) -- With the S&P down over 10% from its October record high, TV pundits and Wall Street strategists are blaming the most obvious culprits for the sudden reversal of fortune, chiefly the subprime crisis and the looming threat of a recession. But it's neither the credit crunch, nor a slowing economy -- nor a third hobgoblin, the weak dollar -- that pushed the markets into correction territory Monday.

The real reason is so basic, and so antithetical to Wall Street's habitual happy talk about stocks, that it barely rates a mention in the market chatter. Put simply, stocks are extremely expensive relative to the daunting risk in owning them. At current prices, earnings can't possibly grow fast enough to give investors the fat returns they covet.

There's just one way for equities to get their lustre back -- their prices have to fall substantially so that investors can harvest attractive returns from the modest profit growth that's in the cards. Like the biblical sheik who hastens to Samarra to escape death, only to find death waiting for him there, stocks have an inescapable appointment with a withering fate.

The money machine breaks down
Naturally, stocks could bubble back to their old heights in the next few weeks or months. If the recent past proves anything, it's that the course of equity prices is totally unpredictable from day to day or quarter to quarter. As the economist Milton Friedman once told me, after returning my call collect, "Stock prices are rational in the long-term, but in the short-term, they're far from rational. They're full of noise."

But don't let the Wall Street crowd fool you into thinking that the current decline is mostly noise, an irrational blip in a bull market caused by a spate of bad news. What we're probably witnessing is a massive, irreversible revaluation of stocks based on fundamentals. The repricing machine is now in motion. The smart money says it won't stop, despite feints and lurches, until stocks are a bargain again, a prospect investors haven't seen in years.

Why are stocks at a probable turning point? The reason is that investors' perception of the potential perils of holding equities has changed substantially in the last few months. In any major shift, it's impossible to predict what the catalyst will be. In this case, it was the subprime mess. Again, subprime was the catalyst, not the cause. It wasn't just a crisis that would pass, as the pundits argued, but a flashing red warning that triggered a durable shift in investor psychology.

Before the credit crisis, investors took an incredibly blasé attitude toward risk. Yields on junk bonds, corporate debt, and office buildings were at all-time lows. Then subprime struck. Suddenly, investors recognized that the rates on high-risk mortgages didn't come close to reflecting the high probability that homeowners would default on their mortgages. So the prices of subprime paper plummeted. The downward pull on prices spread to all types of fixed income securities, from all types of junk bonds to LBO loans.

Risk returns with a vengeance
Now, the fear of risk is spreading to equities with a vengeance. The problem with equities is that the repricing following the bubble of the late 1990s never fully played out. Stocks roared back from their 2001 lows, reaching record levels this fall. The rub is that they were, and still are, extremely expensive.

The best way to measure whether stocks are giving you enough juice for the risk you're taking is examining the equity risk premium. This is the ultimate number in corporate finance, what Dartmouth economist Kenneth French calls "the holy grail" of stock investing.

Let's run through some simple math. The best measure for the future return on stocks is the earnings yield, the inverse of the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. Today, the PE, based on trailing 12 month earnings, is around 16. That's not too far above the historic average of 14. Even by that measure, stocks are far from cheap.

But the 16 PE isn't the whole story. Earnings are now near a cyclical peak, having jumped more than 60% since 2001. They're now more than 12% of GDP versus an historic average of around 9%.

Over long cycles, earnings grow in tandem with GDP. It's likely that they will grow more slowly than national income over the next few years to restore the normal ratio. That prediction makes sense: Many of the factors that led to the earnings explosion are now shifting. Rates for corporate borrowing have increased substantially, companies are being forced to invest far more capital equipment to remain competitive, and labor is demanding a bigger share of the pie.

To get a more accurate read on the PE, it's critical to smooth earnings to take out the spikes in the cycle. Yale economist Robert Shiller has developed a profits-smoothing formula that does just. The Shiller model now puts the PE at around 22 or 23, reflecting today's sumptuous earnings.

So where does that put the equity risk premium? With a PE of 22, the earnings yield is just 4.5%. So the return investors can expect from equities is 4.5% plus expected inflation of 2.5%, or around 7%. To get the equity risk premium, subtract that expected return from the 10-year treasury rate of 4%. That's the extra lift investors get for choosing the perils of holding stocks over the comfort of owning government bonds.

At 3%, the equity risk premium is low by historical standards. The recent decline has helped make it more attractive. But the drop hasn't gone far enough. Over the past 50 years, the risk premium has averaged around 5%. Maybe investors don't need that big a spread today, given the ease of diversifying portfolios and the Fed's ability to smooth economic cycles. So let's say the number is now 4%. To get there, stocks still need to drop an additional 18%.

Bye-bye tech party, hello hangover
The most dangerous sector is technology. Just look at the lofty PE's. The big names like Microsoft (Charts, Fortune 500) and Intel (Charts, Fortune 500) boast multiples of between 20 and 25, yet they're now giant, mature enterprises that, because of their sheer size, can't grow profits nearly fast enough to justify their high prices.

For the Googles and Yahoos, the outlook is far scarier. Google's PE now stands at 52. Say you're expecting a 10% a year return from Google (Charts, Fortune 500). Its market cap would have to double to more than $400 billion by 2014. Even if Google kept a stellar PE of 30, it would need to earn $13 billion by then. Today, it earns about $4 billion. So its profits would need to more than quadruple in seven years. It won't happen.

For the bulls, the coup de grace is the math -- earnings growth cannot bail out the market. The reason is that what really counts, earnings per share, don't even grow as fast as GDP. That's because companies regularly issue more shares and dilute their current shareholders -- the explosion in stock options is only the most obvious example. Because of the big dilution, earnings per share grow far more slowly than GDP; the best estimate is around 2%, adjusted for inflation.

Investors can't get fat returns from profit growth. But they can get good returns from a combination of far higher dividend yields plus modest profit growth. And for dividend yields to rise, prices have to drop. That's the inexorable math we now see playing out.

Forget the chatter, ignore the headlines, and follow the math. Prices will get a lot more attractive. The process is underway. All investors have to do is wait.

[scpnuno]

Broker

O Citigroup é de um arabe. Aquilo é mais "pescadinha de rabo na boca"

[Broker_Invest]

O mais engracado é que a america vai ser comprada com o proprio dinheiro deles, uma chapada de luva branca, os Arabes vendem-lhes os petroleo, e depois começam a comprar as empresas americanas, já apareceu um que investiu 5% no Citigroup, acho que isto não vai ficar por aqui, os arabes vão invadir os EUA com o dinheiro do Crude.

[acintra]

Apesar do que se passou com o Citigroup, as noticias negativas e de mais perdas não param de aparecer.

Struggling to maintain poise
Futures point to weak open for Wall Street as credit crisis takes its toll; investors await batch of economic reports.
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LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks appeared set for a tough open Wednesday as investors struggled to maintain their poise in the face of ongoing credit problems and a heavy economic calendar.

At 5:31 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, although well off earlier lows.

Stocks advanced Tuesday, recovering from a sell-off that sent stocks into a correction earlier in the week. Markets got a boost after Abu Dhabi's investment arm injected $7.5 billion into troubled bank Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500).

But the recovery could be short-lived following more news of credit woes. Wells Fargo (Charts, Fortune 500) said late Tuesday it would take a a $1.4 billion provision in the fourth quarter for loan losses. Freddie Mac (Charts, Fortune 500) also said it would sell $6 billion of stock to bolster its finances.

A batch of economic reports are due Wednesday, include durable orders, existing home sales and the Fed's Beige Book of economic conditions.

In addition, the government is set to release its weekly report on fuel inventories. Oil prices tumbled more than $3 Tuesday on growing expectations for OPEC to boost production. Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 38 cents to $94.04 a barrel in electronic trading early Wednesday.

Stocks in the cable sector, including Comcast (Charts) and Time Warner Cable (Charts), are in focus after federal regulators said they would collect more cable subscriber data before determining whether to expand oversight of the industry.

In global trade, most markets in Asia finished the session lower, and European stocks advanced in morning trading.

[acintra]

Beware our shadow banking system
We have a secret banking system built on derivatives and untouched by regulation, says Pimco's Bill Gross. Here's how to protect your pocketbook.
By Bill Gross, founder and chief investment officer of Pimco



Bill Gross, founder and chief investment officer of Pimco
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(Fortune Magazine) -- The tangled web of subprimes has claimed more than its share of victims in recent months: homeowners by the hundreds of thousands, to be sure, but also those who created, packaged, insured, distributed, and ultimately bought what should have been labeled "junk mortgages" but which by a masterstroke of marketing genius received a more respectable imprimatur.

"Skim milk masquerades as cream," warned Gilbert and Sullivan over a century ago, and sure enough, today's subprimes, packaged into financial conduits with monikers such as SIVs and CDOs, pretended to be AAA-rated cubes of butter.

Financial institutions fell for the ruse, and now we all suffer the consequences. Defaults are rising, the dollar's sinking, and -- good Lord! -- even Google's (Charts, Fortune 500) stock price is going down. Something must really be wrong.

It is. What we are witnessing is essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system, a complex of leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in mid-August.

My Pimco colleague Paul McCulley has labeled it the "shadow banking system" because it has lain hidden for years, untouched by regulation, yet free to magically and mystically create and then package subprime loans into a host of three-letter conduits that only Wall Street wizards could explain.

It is certainly true that this shadow system, with its derivatives circling the globe, has democratized credit. And as the benefits of cheaper financing became available to the many as opposed to the few, placating and calming waves of higher productivity and widespread diversification led to accelerating economic growth, incomes, and corporate profits.

Yet, as is humanity's wont, we overdid a good thing, and the subprime skim milk has soured.

Still, to equate rancid milk with a breakdown in today's banking system is a bit much, don't you think? Aren't our central bankers coming to the rescue with lower interest rates, and doesn't Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson finally have a plan to steady Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500) and friends with a "super-SIV"?

They are, and he does -- but cheap financing and SIV bailouts may not be enough to restore confidence in a shadow system built on fragile foundations. Financed conduits supported by $1 trillion of asset-backed commercial paper were constructed on the basis of AAA ratings that suggested -- no, practically guaranteed -- that the investments could never fail: no skim, just the crème de la crème.

Now, as the subprimes undermine those structures and the confidence in them, it is a stretch of the imagination to suggest that 75 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Fed will bring back the love.

As the commercial-paper market shrinks by hundreds of billions of dollars a month, central banks worldwide are facing a giant stress test of the shadow banking system. The publicized and photographed overnight "runs" on Countrywide and Britain's Northern Rock in mid-August were nothing compared to what's taking place in the shadows of the real banking system.

How does one protect during a run "deposits" that no one can see? To be blunt, what does it mean for your pocketbook?

To understand where future losses may lie, it makes sense to ask which investments did especially well during the shadow's formation. Home prices have been the obvious first hit -- down 5% nationwide already, with perhaps another 10% to go over the next several years.

Following in lockstep have been financial stocks with subprime exposure, to be joined in short order by consumer-based equities, as jobs and disposable income falter. These investments thrived as the shadow worked its voodoo; now its curse will sap money from the pockets of any and all who believed in its black magic.

Importantly, add to the list of investment victims the strength and viability of our national currency. The SIVs and CDOs of years past supported the dollar at unrealistic levels as foreign investment in the hundreds of billions poured into our markets.

Now, with confidence waning, the visible but unphotographable run from George Washington into the euro, the yen, and other currencies is under way. Protecting an American-made pocketbook should begin by seeing that purchasing power is more likely to be enhanced via investments in strong currencies, not weak ones. More than ever, your portfolio should have a international perspective and include non-dollar-denominated assets.

Investors should anticipate that the shadow's successor will be a more conservative, less risk-oriented banking system. The shadow writes, and having writ will move on to new sources of wealth creation in faraway corners of the globe. Go with it.

[Fogueiro]

Caro Artur,

A liquidez não é uma questão de mais ou menos dinheiro, mas de mais ou menos confiança no sistema financeiro, na economia.

Foi a expectativa, a partir da injecção árabe no Citigroup, que outras virão dos petrodólares (e também das poupanças chinesas) de que o sistema financeiro resistirá, que deu hoje alguma confiança aos compradores.

Mas é necessário que o Fed, o BCE e os outros grandes interventores, dêem os passos certos.

Quando forem apresentadas as contas de 2007, se essa confiança existir, ninguém vai correr a levantar o seu dinheiro, apenas os accionistas perdem valor.
...

[acintra]

O Mercado hoje gostou da notícia da injecção de $7,5 bn da Abu Dhabi Investment Authority no Citigroup (C).

São obrigações à taxa de 11% convertíveis em acções do Citigroup a partir de 2010.

Parece indicar que os petrodolares estão interessados nas financeiras americanas em dificuldades…
…

Caro Fogueiro,

Acreditas que será suficiente para esta "sangria" do sup-prime? Eu acho que quando apresentarem as contas de 2007 é que vai estalar a grande bronca. Existem ainda muitas coisas a divulgar que aguardam por melhores dias...

[Fogueiro]

O Mercado hoje gostou da notícia da injecção de $7,5 bn da Abu Dhabi Investment Authority no Citigroup (C).

São obrigações à taxa de 11% convertíveis em acções do Citigroup a partir de 2010.

Parece indicar que os petrodolares estão interessados nas financeiras americanas em dificuldades…
…

[acintra]

Mais algumas razões que levaram às quedas de ontem.

Stocks: When to bail
HSBC Holdings (Charts), Europe's leading bank, said that it will step in to bail out two funds it manages by transferring $45 billion of their assets onto its balance sheet. The short-term debt funds have been hit hard by the credit market tightening.

E*Trade Financial (Charts) slipped in active Nasdaq trade after a Wall Street Journal article said that any potential buyout could be delayed by concerns about its weakened mortgage portfolio. On Friday, E*Trade shares jumped on buyout talk.

Citigroup lowered its near-term outlook on the homebuilders, saying it is hard to see when the bottom will be made for the hard-hit industry. Centex (Charts, Fortune 500), Lennar (Charts, Fortune 500) and KB Home (Charts, Fortune 500) were among the names cited in the report.


All financial markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and closed early on Friday, with many Wall Streeters making a four-day weekend of it. Monday's trading volume was moderate, with participants continuing to drift back after the holiday.

[Fogueiro]

Comentário

Hoje de manhã a CNBC avisou que o Citigroup poderia despedir 45.000 empregados.
Outros grupos financeiros, com problemas semelhantes, farão despedimentos; foi isso que o Mercado assumiu.

Depois veio a notícia de que o Osama bin Laden vai fazer uma declaração – o que agravou o medo.

Nem os 8,5% positivos das compras dos consumidores no “Black Friday” acalmou a fuga para a segurança dos TBs: o Yield dos 10 anos caiu para 3,85% – uma das maiores quedas diárias dos últimos 45 anos!

Pata-Hari, qunto ao Navellier ainda não tenho opinião, salvo que lê muito bem nas entrelinhas das declarações do Fed, pois foi seu funcionário antes de lançar as suas Newsletters.
...

[redhot]

Curiosidades

Oracle (ORCL) – cumpre 30 anos. O que poucos sabem é que a sua origem está na contratação, pela CIA em 1977, do Larry Ellison para construir uma base de dados secreta. Ele convidou outros técnicos e constituiu a Software Development Laboratories.
A CIA atribuiu a este projecto o nome de código “Oracle”.

…

Sim é verdade e faz parte da "perspectiva histórica das coisas" nos cursos superiores de informática.

A história sobre a estratégia da Microsoft para combater a Oracle através do SQL Server também é interessante.

[Pata-Hari]

Fogueiro, vi-te mencionar o Navellier, o que achas dele? e, outra coisa, há alguma forma de investir nas estratégias dele, algum tracker, algum fundo gerido pela casa?

Nylows parecem começar a secar. Deixa ver se a brisa os ajuda a secar...

[Fogueiro]

Curiosidades

Oracle (ORCL) – cumpre 30 anos. O que poucos sabem é que a sua origem está na contratação, pela CIA em 1977, do Larry Ellison para construir uma base de dados secreta. Ele convidou outros técnicos e constituiu a Software Development Laboratories.
A CIA atribuiu a este projecto o nome de código “Oracle”.
O Larry Ellison registou este nome como produto TI e empresa, pois estava livre, mas dado o melindre da questão, não o utilizou na altura.
Em 1979 mudou o nome para Relational Software, Inc. (RSI), e só em 1983 para Oracle Systems.

DirectTV (DTV) – esta empresa, que está na Carteira NY, vai migrar, em 3 de Dezembro, do NYSE para o NASDAQ Global Select Market, onde os custos são inferiores e a visibilidade equivalente.
Até aqui nada de especial, outras o têm feito.
A novidade é que mantém o mesmo ticker, sendo a primeira empresa do NASDAQ a ter 3 letras.
…

[Fogueiro]

OK, já guardei

[Pata-Hari]

(já agora, o teu post de madrgada ainda foi apanhado, no entanto, este já não será mas eu gostaria imenso que depois o voltasses a copiar para não se perder... pleaseeee).

[Fogueiro]

a cópia dos posts já foi feita e estes se irão perder

Pata,...querás dizer "...não se irão perder"... eheheh

Os NYLOWS estão mauzotes... ainda por cima, como o ano fiscal dos grandes Fundos americanos terminou em 31 de Outubro, a grande limpeza das perdedoras já devia ter acabado para este influente grupo de investidores (é uma das razões porque Outubro costuma ser mau).

Agora temos a mais forte época de entrada de dinheiro fresco nos Fundos de Pensões e espero um novo corte nas taxas do Fed na reunião do FOMC de 11 de Dezembro, como venho prevendo. A taxa dos TBs a 13 semanas está pouco acima dos 3% e a de 5 anos nos 4%.

Até lá é provável que continue a actual indecisão quanto à consolidação de um fundo dos Mercados, mas depois, havendo o corte, mantenho a expectativa de um ráli de fim de ano.

Parabéns pelo acordo com o JN, pois passarão a ter uma capacidade negocial incomparavelmente maior, no que toca ao mercado publicitário.
...

[Pata-Hari]

Fogueiro, os problemas de indexação também deverão terminar agora - assim que a mudança se terminar (esperemos que durante este fds). Por favor nota que a cópia dos posts já foi feita e estes se irão perder).

Eu continuo desolada pela falta de sinal dos nylows de secagem de vendas. Por agora os nlylows é mesmo para pôr nas pernas dado que o tempo arrefeceu mesmo nos mercados .

[Fogueiro]

Branc0 (só agora apareceu o teu post datado de 17… parece que cada nova página precisa do 2º post para mostrar o 1º!), de facto todos os Índices fazem essa habilidade de deitar fora as piores empresas e substituir por melhores – e quanto mais empresas e de menor capitalização estão num índice, maior a rotação.

Sim, Aprendizdefeiticeiro, este nível de PER está a pedir subida, salvo se os lucros das empresas do S&P 500 vierem a apresentar uma queda significativa nos lucros. É essa expectativa, que tem a ver com a infecção da crise imobiliária/financeira aos restantes sectores e ao poder de compra, que está a preocupar o Mercado.
A volatilidade dos últimos dias parece-me o Mercado a procurar um fundo: num dia acha que o encontrou, no outro que ainda não.

Comentário Semanal:

A esperada visita à zona dos mínimos de Agosto já se fez nalguns Índices menos tecnológicos, e todos os Indicadores da Fogueiro’s Toolbox continuam negativos.
O PER do S&P500 está em 15,1.

A prioridade continuou a ser proteger o capital e, tanto quanto possível, o lucro já conseguido.

Nesta semana de 3 sessões e meia, não encontro nada de interessante e novo a comentar.
Se algo me ocorrer, voltarei durante o fim-de-semana.
…

[aprendizdefeiticeiro]

Por lapso o últomo gráfico não foi anexado

[aprendizdefeiticeiro]

Caro Fogueiro
Lamento que este espaço de discussão esteja a perder o "gás". Lamento por vários motivos. Em especial porque era um espaço de aprendizagem de excelência para quem anda por este mundo de investimento em bolsa não há muito tempo. Acompanho os seus post´s noutos foruns mas de facto aqui tinham um carácter mais pedagócico.
Reconheço, mea culpa, que este decréscimo de actividade se deve essencialmente à falta de participação, ou melhor à participação passiva, observadores onde me incluo, dos restantes forenses pois tanto quanto me foi dado observar o Fogueiro nunca deixou nenhum post sem resposta.
Serve a presente mensagem para o maçar com mais uma questão de principiante. Consideremos então o indice SP 500 do qual anexo figura. Pelos meus cálculos, conforme figura, estará neste momento a cerca de 0,8% da LTA de longo prazo que o tem acompamhado nos últimos 4 anos. Se cruzarmos este facto com os indicadores da toolbox que teve a amabilidade de partilhar connosco, em especial os valores particularmente elevados do indicador de curto prazo, será de prever uma quebra da LTA e a confirmação de uma nova tendência bear.
Contudo olhando para os indicadores que me servem de referência nas minhas entrads nos títulos, quando aplicados ao sp500 apontam no sentido da entrada. Vejamos RSI baixo Williams 5 dias a adar sinal de entrada, PKS 14 3 3 abaixo dos 20 e a sinalizar inversão, DMI 10 em convergencia e momento positivo.
A questão que deixo é a seguinte: Estaremos à beira do Bear ou por outro lado estaremos na eminência de fazer o segundo fundo?

[Branc0]

Oh Fogueiro... mas isso estar a avaliar o mercado por small-caps... vai lá vai, então no mercado americano em que essas coisas são muito estranhas (esquemas de bolsa , "pump & dump", etc.).

O risco de small caps é concerteza muito maior e não me pareça que seja um benchmark justo para ninguém. Quantas empresas desse índice não devem ser "recicladas" regularmente?