Ao minuto: Descida do IRC avança fora do orçamento

[Fogueiro]

O Número 23

Não sou um cabalista.
Dito isto, aqui vai o que o “Ernings Whispers” me mandou hoje:

No, this is not an obsession about a number, a conspiracy, or a movie review. This is a history of the two previous credit crises of 1990 and 1998. In both 1990 and 1998, the late August peak in the S&P 500 and the near-term low in the VIX occurred on the 23rd trading day from the 52-week high of the S&P 500 set that July.

Both times, the market had already sold off more than 9% and then rallied at least 1.5% by the close on the 23rd trading day; yet, by the end of August, the S&P 500 was down an additional 9% to 12%.

Today, Monday, August 20, 2007, marks the 23rd trading day since the S&P 500 set a high on July 19, 2007. So, if history repeats itself, today is the day to short the market.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 since its recent high compared to the average percentage change in the S&P 500 in 1990 and 1998 after their respective highs. This chart shows that last weeks price movement was nearly identical to that of 1990 and 1998, with the exception that Fridays rally exceeded the rallies of 1990 and 1998.

(gráfico 1)

On Thursday afternoon, rumors started circulating that the Fed was going to cut the Fed Funds Rate after the close that day. At the time, the S&P 500 was down more than 2.5% on the day, but this started a rally that resulted in a modest gain for the day. This 2.5% rally is not reflected in the chart above, so we are including a chart of the VIX, the standard measure of fear and volatility in the S&P 500, that compares its 2007 change to 1998. However, weve substituted the high on Thursday rather than the closing value to reflect the calming effect of the rumors and the subsequent decrease in the Discount Rate (more on that later). It shows the VIX moved last week right in line with its path in 1998.

(gráfico 2)

We should point out that in 1990 the VIX saw its near-term peak about a week earlier than in 1998, still had a bottom on the 23rd trading day, but then set its next high a week earlier than in 1998. The VIX then remained just below 30 for most of September before going higher again in early October.

Probably the biggest difference between the previous periods and the current is in 1990 and 1998, the S&P 500 did not have a significant rise until after it had sold off approximately 17% or more, but when it did bottom in late August, it had a quick up movement of approximately 5%. From Thursdays bottom, the S&P 500 has gained more than 5%, so despite only being down 10%, it feels like the market has bottomed for now.

The reason for the earlier rally this time is the Fed has been taking steps sooner than during the previous periods. On Friday, before the market opened, the Fed lowered the Discount Rate 50 basis points and left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged.

So now, the question is: has the decrease in the Discount Rate fixed our problems?

Obviously, the Discount Rate cut is not going to keep hedge funds from needing to liquidate positions. So there is still going to be selling over the next month, but there have two additional reasons for the sell offs market liquidity and the slowing economy.

Last week we wrote about the ineffectiveness of the Feds open market cash infusions. The market quickly came to the same realization and by Tuesday was selling off - eventually down 5.8% before the Fed rumors started. For the short-term, we believe the cut in the Discount Rate was very beneficial but primarily just because of its psychological affect. The primary difference between the liquidity injections and the cut in the Discount Rate is simply the fact that Fridays cut represents a policy change and hints that a cut in the Fed Funds Rate will occur at the next FOMC meeting on September 18, 2007. This, along with the fact that the Financials are still oversold, suggests this group could rally over the next few weeks. Financial stocks do better in periods of declining interest rates and investors will buy in anticipation of the news. Since the Financials make up the biggest part of the S&P 500, there will likely be upward pressure on this index.

However, even though the cut represents an actual policy change, we do not believe it has resolved any problems other than delaying the failure of some financial institutions that are on the brink. Even with the lower discount rate, borrowing at the discount window is still a 50 basis point penalty versus borrowing at the Fed Funds Rate and the only institutions that are typically willing to pay this penalty are banks that are on the verge of failure. So we believe there is still a liquidity problem.

To make matters worse, the Fed has now acknowledged that the liquidity issues are seeping into the economy an economy that we already saw slowing. The Feds statement on Friday included these lines: Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward. In these circumstances, although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably.

This is a significant change from the Feds previous statements suggesting the subprime issues were contained and would not affect the overall economy.

[Fogueiro]

Semitela, é apenas uma contribuição recente de um membro da ChangeWave Alliance, uma pool mundial, iniciada há bastantes anos, de entreajuda na detecção de oportunidades de investimento devido a mudanças tecnológicas.

Começou com 2 centenas e já atingiu, no mês passado os 11mil.

“You have the opportunity to apply to become a member of our ChangeWave Alliance research network – a worldwide group of 10,000 highly qualified business, technology, and medical professionals in leading companies of select industries. Members are credentialed professionals who spend their everyday lives working on the frontline of technological change.”

Para detalhes:

http://www.changewave.com/apply/tutoria ... ORCD=70200

São bastante selectivos nas admissões: confirmam junto das empresas e universidades a veracidade dos dados das candidaturas, etc.

[Semitela]

Synthetically Fuelling Air Force Aviation

EGG95064 writes: "The U.S. Air Force B-52H plans to be certified to use synthetic fuel produced by Syntroleum Corp. (SYNM), an Oklahoma-based company. The Air Force wants to certify its entire fleet to use a domestically produced synthetic fuel-blend by early 2011. They also want half of their aviation fuel supply to come from alternative sources by 2016. By consuming 3.2 billion gallons of fuel annually, the Air Force accounts for about 80% of the federal government's fuel usage. Looks like Syntroleum is perfectly positioned for future growth."

Boas Fogueiro ,

Essa noticia é de quando ?

Saiu hoje ?

[Fogueiro]

Os membros da ChangeWave Alliance enviam, espontaneamente, ideias e observações (os Hot Tickets), com vista a encontrar oportunidades investíveis. Não representam opiniões oficiais da Alliance.

Achei estes dois interessantes, na última lista:

Google Phone?

MIC9787 writes: "Google (GOOG) is reportedly working on its own phone that integrates cellular and WiFi signals. The carrier is likely T-Mobile, which just released a phone that automatically makes Web calls when you are in a hot spot. This would be completely disruptive to the cell phone network service provider business models, and T-Mobile is at the forefront."

Synthetically Fuelling Air Force Aviation

EGG95064 writes: "The U.S. Air Force B-52H plans to be certified to use synthetic fuel produced by Syntroleum Corp. (SYNM), an Oklahoma-based company. The Air Force wants to certify its entire fleet to use a domestically produced synthetic fuel-blend by early 2011. They also want half of their aviation fuel supply to come from alternative sources by 2016. By consuming 3.2 billion gallons of fuel annually, the Air Force accounts for about 80% of the federal government's fuel usage. Looks like Syntroleum is perfectly positioned for future growth."

[Fogueiro]

Tks, Lois, pela simpatia!

Gosto da tua assinatura, e como tenho o vício de "corromper" frases célebres, fiz esta versão:

"É estupido repetir a mesmo erro: é muito mais divertido fazer erros novos." (Fogueiro)

Abraço

[lois]

Bem, pelo menos os nylows começam a secar...

O que são "nylows"?

São o nº de acções do NYSE que fazem, no dia, novos mínimos de 52 semanas.

Menos de 40 é bom.

sim sr... acompanho este tópico desde que ele surgiu e apenas agora venho dar um grande aplauso a este grande Senhor que é o "fogueiro", pois apesar de já ter demonstrar que sabe muito de muitas coisas, está sempre disponível para ajudar quem menos percebe!! impressionante!! é de pessoas assim que este e todos os outros fóruns precisavam!!

como o seu registo no caldeirão já é antigo dá pa perceber que deve ter andado afastado por uns tempos ou pouco participativo, no entanto, mesmo desconhecendo a razão, espero muito sinceramente que continue o trabalho que tem feito nestes ultimos tempos, estou muito grato!!

ps. também não sabia o que eram os nylows

grande abraço ao fogueiro!!

(tb falta mais posts e topicos do caro maromatics e thunder... grande abraço tb a estes dois!!)

[redhot]

Bem, pelo menos os nylows começam a secar...

O que são "nylows"?

São o nº de acções do NYSE que fazem, no dia, novos mínimos de 52 semanas.

Menos de 40 é bom.

Ok, gracias. Não fiz a associação a "NY lows".

[Fogueiro]

Bem, pelo menos os nylows começam a secar...

O que são "nylows"?

São o nº de acções do NYSE que fazem, no dia, novos mínimos de 52 semanas.

Menos de 40 é bom.

[JUKIMSUNG]

Bem, pelo menos os nylows começam a secar...

Mas hoje pode dizer-se que se aguentaram muito bem.

Foi um dia de calma em que a europa acbou por ser um pouquinho gananciosa e os states não se definiram. A descer vão esperar por mais um dia verdinho por cá.

É interessante realçar que apesar de continuarem a sair notícias de dificuldades de fundos hoje não houve pânico a quando dessas notícias.

Se não se soubesse como anda o VIX ainda se podia pensar que o bull estava de regresso. Assim há que continuar a desconfiar.

[redhot]

Bem, pelo menos os nylows começam a secar...

O que são "nylows"?

[Pata-Hari]

Bem, pelo menos os nylows começam a secar...

[Fogueiro]

Está a formar-se nova depressão no Atlântico.

[Fogueiro]

A LWAY, sugerida pelo Nunofaustino tem bons multiplos, está classificada como "FOOD-DAIRY PRDS", mas talvez encaixe no conceito que procuramos.

[Fogueiro]

A única que tem fundamentais razoáveis é uma que o Keyser Soze encontrou (BMTI), mas trata-se de um sector emergente, ainda bastante na fase de R&D pelo que é natural que as outras estejam como estão.

As que conseguírem funding, sem diluir demasiado até entrarem no verde, podem ser ganhadoras. Caso contrário, desaparecem...

[nunofaustino]

Creio que a Danone não tem ADRs em NY, confirmas?

Se queres que te diga, não tenho a certeza...

No site da danone
http://www.danone.com
tens lá informação sobre a cotação da danone na bolsa de NY. No entanto, os gráficos e os valores apresentados são de 2002.

Se pesquisares no google encontras esta página http://finance.google.com/finance?q=EPA:BN
que tem lá a identificação de ADRs da Danone (símbolo GDNNY)...

Posso tentar ver isso mais tarde...

Um abr
Nuno

Nuno, editei porque os links alargavam tanto a largura que tornava difícil a leitura dos textos.
Certamente concordas, ok?
Fogueiro

[Fogueiro]

A Nutricion XXI tem um gráfico assustador, será para acompanhar e ver o que se segue...

Creio que a Danone não tem ADRs em NY, confirmas?

..

[nunofaustino]

Penso que a Lifeway Foods Inc. tb produz alguns lacticínios probióticos, mas n tenho a certeza...

Já agora, fogueiro, a danone tb vende produtos probióticos (o danacol, como a Pata refeiru). Estás interessado em empresas como a Danone ou como a Nutricion XXI (muito mais focadas nesse mercado)?

Um abr
Nuno

[Fogueiro]

Os preços do CL e do NG estão a aliviar, pois os meteorologistas prevêem que o Furacão Dean não afectará significativamente a exploração no GOM nem atingirá a grande plataforma logística de Nova Orleães.

Todavia as últimas previsões para esta “hurricane season” (1 de Junho a 30 de Novembro) são:

The latest forecast by William Gray's team predicts only 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic, with eight of those becoming hurricanes. Four of the hurricanes are expected to develop into major storms (Categories 3, 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
in livescience.com

Lembro que os furacões mais fortes ocorreram nos meses de Agosto e Setembro.

[nunofaustino]

Deixo aqui mais uma (sobre a qual não sei nada).

Provexis (http://www.provexis.com/content/pages/h ... ault.shtml)


Um abr
Nuno

[Keyser Soze]

uma procura "bioactive" no google finance surgem estas:

Código: Selecionar todos

Company    Symbol    Last trade    Change    Mkt Cap    
BioMimetic Therapeutics, Inc.    BMTI    15.97    -0.45     (-2.74%)    290.25M    
Helix BioMedix, Inc.    HXBM    0.69    0.00     (0.00%)    17.70M    
Protein Polymer Technologies, Inc.    PPTI    0.13    0.00     (0.00%)    8.82M    
NeoMPS, Inc.                           
Provexis plc    SEA:PXS                        
CTC Bio Incorporation    KDQ:060590                        
New Image Group Limited    NZE:NEW                        
Amisk Inc.    AS.A    0.75    0.00     (0.00%)    6.27M    

[Fogueiro]

A única que encontrei, até ao momento, foi a Nutrition 21 (NXXI) – “is developing both dietary supplements and bioactive foods to treat specific conditions such as high blood glucose levels”.

Food-as-medicine is a concept increasingly accepted -- and even embraced -- by consumers.

Due to advancements in medical science and a vast compilation of nutritional studies, the old saying "you are what you eat" is now virtually accepted as a universal truth.

Even though science-based nutrition -- including food-as-medicine -- is thought to hold great promise, growth has historically been lackluster due to a deficit of physician focus on smart nutritional habits and preventive medicine.

The business of retail medicine focuses on unique, personalized products and services that help patients manage their healthcare, but these products and services are paid for by the patients and not their insurance company.

Bioactive foods contain bio-molecules that modulate metabolism and treat specific conditions such as high blood glucose levels.

Such foods are just beginning to come to market on a mass scale, and some analysts believe they may revolutionize how certain conditions are treated.

By Josh Levine

[Pata-Hari]

e o que são comidas bioactivas...? é tipo a benecol que reduz o colesterol?

[Fogueiro]

MSM, recebi esta sondagem agora, ainda não comecei a procurá-las.

Se alguém tiver ideias, seria bom colocar aqui.

...

[MSM]

Fogueiro,

Podes-me dizer quais são as empresas que trabalham nesses produtos?

Desde já agradeço,

[Fogueiro]

Numa sondagem a que tive acesso, feita a uma pool de 274 profissionais do Sector Saúde ligados à nutrição, as “Comidas Bioactivas” são as únicas que deverão crescer.
...