Queda dos juros diminuiu rendibilidade da banca até março

[TRSM]

DJ IEA Chief: Will Open Oil Reserves Taps On Conflict - FT


LONDON (Dow Jones)--The head of the International Energy Agency said any
shortfall in oil production caused by conflict in Iraq is likely to trigger a
release of its members strategic reserves, the Financial Times reported
Saturday.
In an interview with the paper, IEA Executive Director Claude Mandil said:
"What we need to convey to the market is that the shortfall will be offset by
both consuming countries and producing countries."
He added: "If the market is tight, if the stocks are very low and if you have
a sharp decrease of 2.5 million barrels a day - which will be the case if Iraq
and northern Kuwait were stopped - I would call it a supply disruption."
The IEA's monthly oil markets report released Wednesday said the 11-member
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Iraq, didn't have
enough capacity to offset any significant shortage caused by war.
The report was issued a day after OPEC had met to reassure markets that oil
flows would be secure in the event of a serious disruption.
Mandil said in the interview: "Nigeria may be the news story of the coming
weeks," a likely reference to impending elections in that country and which may
prove disruptive to its oil output.

-By Adam Smallman, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 20 7842 9343;
adam.smallman@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
15-03-03 1625GMT(AP-DJ-03-15-03 1625GMT)

Mar-15-2003 16:25 GMT
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R/NME R/UK R/US R/WEU MST/B/BRK MST/R/OPEC MST/N/PET MST/R/AFR MST/R/EU
MST/R/EUR MST/R/IQ MST/R/MID MST/R/NG MST/R/NME MST/R/GB MST/R/US MST/R/WEU

[TRSM]

DJ Rep Matsui Says Bush Plan Won't Spark Economy - Radio


WASHINGTON (AP)--President Bush is not providing responsible leadership at a
time of economic stagnation, a senior Democrat on the tax-writing House Ways and
Means Committee said Saturday.
Americans, already unsettled by the prospect of war, are anxious because of
the stream of bad economic news, Rep. Robert Matsui of California said in the
weekly Democratic radio address.
"What have President Bush and congressional Republicans proposed to do about
these problems? The elimination of taxes on corporate dividends," Matsui said.
"Picture an out-of-work dad trying to feed his family, or a working mom whose
salary has remained flat even though the bills keep adding up. Will a dividend
tax break help these families? Of course not."
Matsui said Bush's tax plan would add to the national debt and noted that many
economists have said it would not stimulate the economy or help lift the stock
market.
"This is a time for responsible leadership," Matsui said. "That's why we
Democrats have proposed sensible economic policies that put American families
first. We put forward an economic plan that puts money in people's pockets and
helps get our economy moving again."
Matsui, who also is chairman of House Democrats' campaign committee, mirrored
the steady criticism his party has aimed at Republican tax proposals and the
president's 2004 budget proposal.
Bush's budget would mean $1.8 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years,
without including the cost of a possible war with Iraq, Matsui said. And it
would not provide enough money for local authorities to prepare for terrorist
attacks, teacher training, after-school activities or financial aid for college
students, he said.
The president's tax cut, meanwhile, primarily would benefit people earning $1
million a year or more, who "would receive an average tax cut of $27,000 a
year," Matsui said.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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Mar-15-2003 16:06 GMT
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R/EC R/EEU R/EU R/FE R/FEO R/GE R/IZ R/ML R/NME R/PRM R/RS R/SP R/UK R/UR
R/US R/WEU MST/G/EXE MST/B/BRK MST/N/PET MST/R/ASI MST/R/CN MST/R/EU
MST/R/EEU MST/R/EUR MST/R/DE MST/R/IQ MST/R/MID MST/R/NME MST/R/PRM MST/R/RU
MST/R/ES MST/R/GB MST/R/CIS MST/R/US MST/R/WEU

[TRSM]

'Flation nation

Which is it: inflation, deflation, stagflation or disinflation for the world's largest economy?
March 14, 2003: 6:11 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - "Inflation of the nation, it bothers me," fretted Jonathan Davis, also known as Q-Tip, of the hip-hop group A Tribe Called Quest, in the 1990 album People's Instinctive Travels and the Paths of Rhythm.

But what sort of "flation" bothers Q-Tip in 2003? Though the rapper couldn't be reached for comment, economists are divided about whether the nation (that is, the United States) faces inflation, deflation, stagflation, disinflation or that elusive state: price harmony.

The case for inflation
The Labor Department reported Friday that wholesale prices jumped 1 percent in February, more than most economists expected, driven by ever-rising energy costs -- which in turn were driven by low inventories and worries about the impact of a U.S.-led war in Iraq.


Wholesale prices also beat expectations in January, reflecting higher prices for oil and for other commodities that businesses use to make retail goods. In recent months, with consumer confidence falling to lows not seen since the early 1990s, many businesses have been unable to pass those costs on to consumers, resulting in a profit pinch.

But many economists think sagging consumer confidence and demand could get a big boost after the situation in Iraq is resolved, allowing businesses to finally pass costs on to the retail level and resulting in a broader run-up in inflation.

"While an economy is limping during the earliest or first stage of an expansion -- this is where we are -- the ability to pass on the effects of higher input prices like energy is quite limited," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors. "But as soon as the economy begins to gain traction, more of these prices can be passed on."

The case for deflation
But what happens if the economy doesn't rebound in the post-war period?

Some economistsworry that businesses still need time to work off some of the debt and excess production capacity they took on during the boom years of the late 1990s.

Delirious managers, thinking profits and stock prices would just keep on floating up into the heavens forever and ever, amen, ran up debt like a college kid with a new credit card, which they used to buy fancy new computers and factory equipment.


When the boom went bust, revenue and profits fell -- and businesses suddenly had a bunch of bills to pay, less income with which to pay those bills, and a bunch of equipment sitting around doing nothing.

Until those excesses are finally worked out, some economists think, economic weakness will continue. That raises the risk of deflation, a situation in which prices fall uncontrollably, further pinching corporate profits, leading to more cost-cutting layoffs, which in turn leads to more economic weakness.

Need an example? Just look at Japan for the past decade or so.

"The country is entering a period of debt deflation, where households and businesses are forced to move funds from spending to debt repayment," said Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management in Austin, Texas. "This forces down economic growth and reduces inflationary pressures and long-term interest rates."

"In Japan, for example, the debt deflation started in 1990 and price deflation started in 1992 or 1993," Hunt added. "That's what we're in for right now."

The cases for stagflation, disinflation and no flation
Of course, it could be possible that the economy could end up somewhere in the middle between the extremes of higher inflation and deflation.

Related stories

Wholesale prices jump

Michigan sentiment index drops

What are consumers telling us?

Crying over crude

Shades of stagflation

Profits in a squeeze

Re-thinking the Iraq reaction

Weak growth could hound U.S.



For one thing, if the economy stays sluggish and oil prices stay high, continuing to sap consumer discretionary spending and hurt corporate pricing power, that could usher in the unwelcome return of "stagflation." It's a rare situation, having debuted in the United States in the 1970s, in which inflation rises even as the economy stalls.

"Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant," Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner said in a research note last week.

But Berner and other economists doubt stagflation is the most likely scenario, particularly if oil prices continue not to trickle into other consumer prices.

Disinflation, which is a state of decelerating inflation, could be the more likely result. That's less terrifying than deflation, but still could be a problem for the economy, resulting in more layoffs, slower consumer demand and more economic weakness.

"If you look at the segments of the economy where we do have deflation, particularly in the goods industry -- and particularly in durable goods, such as automobiles and heavy machinery -- that's where most of the layoffs have been concentrated," said Brown Brothers Harriman economist Lara Rhame. "That's where you see the connection of disinflation to overall economic growth."


Of course, there's always the possibility that the best of all possible worlds could be in the making -- low inflation, coupled with economic growth -- the elusive "price stability" sought by Federal Reserve policy makers and other economists.

"Something in-between is probably where we are," said Merrill Lynch senior economist Stan Shipley. "While the economy remains weak, inflation will gradually grind down. When the economy picks up, it's unlikely then that inflation will grind down further."

Of course, Shipley and other Merrill economists don't see the economy really picking up until the second half of 2003, at the earliest.

[TRSM]

DJ Ex Taiwan Pres Ratchets Up Pro-Independence Rhetoric


TAIPEI (AP)--The former Taiwanese president ratcheted up his pro-independence
rhetoric Saturday, calling on the island to change its official name from
"Republic of China" to "Taiwan."
The comments by Lee Teng-hui - who is reviled by Chinese leaders - will likely
anger Beijing, which considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and fiercely
opposes any moves that make the island appear to be an independent nation.
His comments also came on the same day Hu Jintao was made China's president,
as a new generation of leaders took control of the world's most populous nation.
Taiwan and China split amid civil war five decades ago. Before the two sides
separated, they shared the same name: the Republic of China. When the Communist
Party took over the mainland in 1949, it renamed the country the People's
Republic of China.
While Taiwan continues to call itself officially the Republic of China, Lee
and other independence supporters think that name should be dropped.
"The most important thing now is to change the country's name," Lee said to
applause at the annual conference of the World Taiwanese Congress, a
pro-independence group.
"Let's take out the Republic of China and just call it Taiwan," Lee said.
Since he stepped down in 2000, Lee has become an increasingly vocal supporter
of independence. As president, he frequently spoke of unifying with China once
the mainland was democratic and more developed economically.
Beijing didn't immediately react to Lee's remarks.
The former president also promised that he would rally 100,000 people to
protest for the name change in Taipei on May 11.
Even though Lee doesn't hold any official position, he is seen as a key backer
of the current government. However, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party,
which is sympathetic to the independence cause, gave no indication it was about
to follow Lee's suggestions.
Senior DPP official Chang Chun-hsiung said he respected Lee's opinions, but
that a change was not on the agenda for now. "According to the present
constitution, Taiwan's name is the Republic of China," Chang said.
Opposition leaders, who traditionally oppose Taiwan independence, were quick
to condemn Lee's comments.
Opposition leader James Soong said although Taiwan should insist on
maintaining its democracy in the face of China's calls for unification, the
island should not provoke China.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
15-03-03 1140GMT(AP-DJ-03-15-03 1140GMT)

Mar-15-2003 11:40 GMT
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MST/R/TW

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VORT SAID, Egypt (AP)--Eight U.S. warships crossed the Mediterranean into the
Red Sea Saturday to join the military buildup in the Middle East region ahead of
a looming war in Iraq, Egyptian port officials said.
The warships that crossed through Egypt's Suez Canal included the submarines
USS Providence, USS Newport News and USS Augusta; destroyer USS Donald Cook;
guided missile destroyer USS Porter; guided missile cruiser San Jacinto and the
oiler USS Kanawha, the officials told The Associated Press.
On Friday, another five U.S. warships crossed the canal following the
Pentagon's decision to move about 10 Navy ships from the Mediterranean to the
Red Sea, from where they could launch cruise missiles toward Iraq.
Their redeployments into the Red Sea follow Turkey's refusal to grant
overflight rights for U.S. naval aircraft and missiles in any attack on Iraq.
The warships are part of the USS Harry S. Truman and USS Theodore Roosevelt
carrier battle groups. No decision has been made yet to move the carriers from
the Mediterranean.
During the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. Navy positioned carriers and
Tomahawk-launching ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf.
Three carriers are currently in the Gulf - the USS Kitty Hawk, the USS
Constellation and the USS Abraham Lincoln. Those carrier battle groups include
about 20 Tomahawk-firing ships and submarines.

[TRSM]

S&P mantém ratings do BCP

03-14-2003 20:17



A Standard & Poor's (S&P) mantém os ratings do Banco Comercial Português (BCP) em “A-” e “A-2” para o longo e curto prazos, apontando para a liderança no mercado nacional, para a diversificação e para a capacidade de geração de lucros.
O outlook continua “negativo”, com os analistas a recearem a agressiva estratégia de capital do BCP. A agência de notação financeira aponta ainda para o impacto da economia portuguesa na evolução do maior banco privado português.

[TRSM]

Peru declara estado de emergência nos combustíveis

03-14-2003 20:42



O Governo peruano declarou o estado de emergência no mercado de combustíveis derivados do petróleo devido a uma possível guerra entre os EUA e o Iraque.
O estado de emergência deverá prolongar-se por 90 dias, pretendendo travar o impacto do aumento do preço internacional do crude sobre a economia local.

O Governo ordenou ainda a criação de uma comissão para estudar a formação de uma reserva energética.

[TRSM]

Acções EUA fecham mistas com investidores a aguardarem resultado cimeira dos Açores



Sexta, 14 Mar 2003 21:14

As acções americanas fecharam mistas e pouco alteradas com a queda da confiança dos americanos a penalizar e os investidores a aguardarem o resultado da cimeira de domingo nos Açores sobre o Iraque. O Nasdaq desceu 0,04% e o Dow Jones cresceu 0,49%.

O Nasdaq fechou nos 1.340,26 pontos e o Dow Jones fechou a valer 7.859,71 pontos.

O índice da Universidade de Michigan, que mede a confiança dos consumidores dos Estados Unidos, desceu em Março para os 75 pontos, o valor mais baixo desde Outubro de 1992.

Este indicador económico sugere que a economia americana continua a abrandar e retirou o optimismo que reinava em Wall Street nas últimas sessões. Ainda assim o balanço da semana é positivo para as acções americanas, depois de duas semanas de quedas.

O presidente dos Estados Unidos , George W. Bush, vai ter este domingo uma reunião nos Açores com os seus homólogos do Reino Unido e Espanha, onde será delineada a estratégia para desarmar o Iraque.

A cimeira, onde Durão Barroso será o anfitrião, explica a fraca oscilação hoje registada em Wall Street, com os investidores a recearem ir de fim de semana com posições no mercado.

«Estamos a falar de um fim de semana com potenciais notícias relevantes e as pessoas não querem ficar com grandes apostas» no mercado, disse um operador à Bloomberg.

Assim a Microsoft cresceu 0,77%, a Intel caiu 1,04% e a General Motors depreciou 2,36%.

O american depository receipt da Portugal telecom desvalorizou 2,11% e o ADR da Electricidade de Portugal caiu 1,26%.