CMVM isenta de OPA entrada da Visabeira na Martifer

[ABsurdo]

« O DAX ressaltar forte com os States a cair não acredito, mas já em situações anteriores semelhantes a esta, vi o DAX a ressaltar enquanto os States andam "flats". »

Não me expliquei muito bem mas já vi que percebeste a minha dúvida.

Muito obrigado; um abraço,

ABsurdo

[Ulisses Pereira]

Caro Absurdo,

Acredito que o DAX tem mais condições para efectuar um ressalto poderoso que o mercado norte-americano. Contudo, também no DAX continuo curto, daí podes deduzir que ainda não vi nenhum sinal de ressalto, senão já não estaria curto.

A grande diferença é que, se eu vir sinais de um ressalto, talvez o tente aproveitar no DAX, enquanto no mercado americano é capaz de não valer o risco.

O DAX ressaltar forte com os States a cair não acredito, mas já em situações anteriores semelhantes a esta, vi o DAX a ressaltar enquanto os States andam "flats".

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[ABsurdo]

depreendo das tuas palavras que o Dax já terá reunido condições (algumas, pelo menos) para realizar um ressalto, contrariamente aos mercados americanos. Percebi bem?

Pergunto:pensas que esse ressalto do DAX poderá ser feito sem a companhia dos americanos, ou simplesmente terá de aguardar que os outros cheguem para a festa?

Um abraço
ABsurdo

[Ulisses Pereira]

Uma vez mais, gostei da clareza do Nichols. Eu mantenho a minha posição curta em S&P aberta nos 832, continuando a ir descendo os meus "stops" para proteger os ganhos. Neste momento tenho um "stop" para metade da minha posição nos 808 e a outra metade nos 814.

Já aqui foi referido várias vezes, mas volto a frisar que enquanto o DAX já está claramente "sobrevendido" o mercado norte-americano está longe disso, o que ainda torna mais arriscada uma entrada longa para apanhar o ressalto.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Eagle Eye]

WEDNESDAY a.m.
March 12, 2003



Looking into the Abyss
by David Nichols

Equities had their chance to rally yesterday, but nothing happened, and by the end of the day prices had sunk to new lows. As I mentioned yesterday morning, this was one of the key things to look for to pre-sage a dramatic wipeout bottom.

The surrounding conditions now are so bad that a capitulation can certainly occur. Indeed, if you look at the numbingly bad stories in the Wall Street Journal every day, it would be remarkable if the markets were able to now avoid this waterfall decline.

Let's all refresh our memories what one of these bear market spike lows can look like -- as we've had enough of them now to really know how they go. The one last July was fierce, so we'll use this one as an example.

The S&P 500 (SPX) stood at 993 on July 8th, after having already tumbled from the March highs of 1170. That's a drop of 177 points in over 3 1/2 months. I remember it -- it was very ugly.

But then it got really bad. From July 8th to the low on July 24th, the SPX fell another 218 points in only 12 days of trading .



Once the lows of September 2001 were taken out, the selling to the downside accelerated, almost beyond imagination. It was a true panic. But it's interesting to note that even during the slide, the markets were able to bounce temporarily -- and quite strongly -- at those September lows.



Under the most bearish potential scenario now, the SPX is projecting a very quick move down to just above 700. Yesterday it closed at 800. So it's possible, if the markets are going into capitulation-mode, that there is still plenty of downside left before we hit bottom.



We again have a signpost along the way, right at the October 2002 bottom. The low daily close came at SPX 775, with the intraday low at 768. Below that, and it could again get very ugly, very quickly.



The markets are in a very dangerous spot. The main problem is sentiment. Unbelievably, the markets have been in a mid-term "advance phase", judging by the momentum of sentiment as measured by the VIX and our Sentiment Dashboard. During this "advance", the markets actually managed to slide below the lows of Feb 13th.

In other words, during this last month, sentiment has never confirmed the downtrend. I have a discipline, which has served me well, to not fight the mid-term momentum of sentiment. This is why I have not been aggressive on the short side during this period. Of course we never entered bullish Rydex positions either, because the confirmation for this advance never materialized.

With yesterday's rise in the VIX, the markets have now moved just to the cusp of entering a fresh mid-term decline phase. That entire "advance phase" was a bust.

So now sentiment -- as measured by our dashboard -- is reaching a configuration where we can actually initiate bearish Rydex positions with confidence. Even though it seems like the markets can't possibly go lower, we may only be only halfway through this decline.

Keep in mind that if we do enter bearish Rydex positions, then we'll have to have an intraday exit strategy in place. These types of bottoms invariably end sometime during the trading day, and the initial snap-back is breathtaking. Since Rydex positions are leveraged 2 to 1 and are end-of-day, it's a nightmare to suffer helplessly through those counter-moves.

So this time I'll recommend that you do a Rydex position that you can completely "cover" with an intraday buy of the SPY or the QQQ, depending on the Rydex fund you're in. I'll explain this in more detail if we go that route.

In the very short-term, it looks to me like the next spike down below SPX 800 might be met with some buying. We could see a pause in the selling for a day or so, with the markets perhaps staggering back up to the SPX 810 - 814 level. Until proven otherwise, these bounces will be opportunities to get positioned on the short side. Only a decisive move above SPX 820 will negate the scenario for a market wipeout.

And now let me give the usual codicil. This is a look at what might happen, in a worst case scenario. It's pretty unbelievable to me, too, that the markets are once again in this same old bear market predicament. But if we're going to follow this same dramatic market storyline, then we can also expect the same bungee cord spring up after the massive drop. If we keep a cool head, we can potentially capture a massive amount of points over the coming weeks -- both down and up.

Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis



SENTIMENT TANK: The tank actually drained by 0.8% yesterday despite the market's finishing down and is now "75% full" of negative sentiment.. In the context of the prior day's 10% rise in the tank it's not surprising that it would take a pause. But price gave us a bearish divergence. The tank is in a perfect position to now break that line of declining tops formed since February 13 and let in a big rush of negative sentiment, filling it toward 100%.

SHORT-TERM: The hourly gauge is in a decline phase.

MID-TERM: The mid-term gauge has not responded to the market downturn and moved up 3 points to 37% in its "advance phase". This might seem absurd at a first look. But this is not a price gauge, this is measuring the maturing of the advance phase in SENTIMENT. As you can see on the tank we have not broken above the line of declining tops. So, what the gauge is telling us here is that sentiment has not responded to the price breakdown with a "trend reversing" level of fear. THE TAKEAWAY FROM THIS GAUGE IS THAT WE HAVE A BEARISH DIVERGENCE. Assuming the gauge does break over the line of declining tops and above 85% (Feb 13 level) the mid-term gauge will roll over into a decline phase and confirm the price breakdowns.

Our Confidence diffusion Index (CDI) is at a BEARISH -4. It's yanking hard on the gauge and will pull it down.

LONG-TERM: The weekly gauge was unchanged yesterday at 56% in its decline phase. We're into the second half of the weekly decline phase launched in January. Our weekly CDI remained at 4. Its direction is toward increasing bearishness and is ripe to run toward 7 as the weekly gauge continues down.