Rendimento das famílias trava a fundo no início do ano

[Camisa Roxa]

das 14.30?

Senão manda para o meu e-mail: camisa_roxa@yahoo.com que eu coloco aqui com as imagens

Um abraço

Já não me lembro o que fiz para receber aquilo de graça. Hoje não recebi, fui à página mas aquilo é a pagar...

[Felling]

Two Big White Candles

by David Nichols

I've often remarked in the past that one big white candle, by
itself, is nothing to get excited about. In order for the
markets to really get rolling to the upside, you really want to
see another big white candle to go with the first one.

That's what we got yesterday.

[Image 1]

Now it looks like we've got the beginnings of an uptrend. Our
sentiment dashboard below is confirming that the "big ship" has
turned around its bow, and perhaps now wants to start steaming up
the river. Of course, the bear market current is still running
against the ship, and there's that impassable "neckline" section
up around SPX 965, but for now it looks like some progress can be
made back upstream.

But it takes so much short-term energy to reverse a mid-term
trend that the markets are invariably subjected to a
counter-trend "test". It's necessary for the markets to go back
down a little, to find out some important things: the market
wants to know who's going to get easily shaken out, who's going
to re-short any sign of weakness, who's going to hang on too
long, etc.

Essentially the market's job is to force as many people to
capitulate as possible at all times. Right now, it's been the
bears turn to capitulate, and they've been doing it en masse .
If there is a serious overload of bearish sentiment, then this
capitulation can continue farther than anybody can foresee,
without even a pullback.

But I don't think this is one of those times. The environment is
still scary enough that money hasn't started piling in behind
short-covering bears, exacerbating their pain.

First off, volume has been sub-par on both big rally days. That
shows that money isn't piling in behind the initial
short-covering. Also, bonds rallied and closed up yesterday.
There was no asset allocation out of bonds into stocks. The
"safe money" wants to stay safe. If we were seeing a true rush to
get long stocks, then bonds would have been tumbling.

[Image 2]

The price of crude oil touched a whopping $37 per barrel. If a
diminishing perception of risk were really sweeping over global
markets, then the price of crude would be coming down.

[Image 3]

The VIX did come down yesterday, but it didn't fall like a stone.
Normally that could be considered a good thing, as the market
went up without the VIX burning up too much of its available
sentiment "fuel". But without at least a hint of confirmation
from bonds and crude, then it's still a little premature to get
fired up about a true vanquishing of the latest fear virus, and
to bet that the market is about to launch into a big uptrend.

It looks like we'll have to see how the market handles the next
short-term decline phase -- which could begin any hour now --
before we'll really know what's going on.

Sentiment Dashboard

by Adam Oliensis

[Image 4]

SENTIMENT TANK: The tank drained 3% to 78% on Tuesday. It's
been headed down from a high level since late last week.

SHORT-TERM: The hourly gauge remains in its advance phase. It's
ripe to be exhausted. The quality of any short-term decline
phase would be extremely instructive.

MID-TERM: The mid-term gauge has moved incrementally into
bullish territory, but is still closer to neutral than to a buy
signal. It's moved from a reading of 98 in its decline phase to
a reading of 3 in a nascent advance phase. It hasn't quite yet
given its buy signal but is on its way. Our Confidence Diffusion
Index (CDI) is leading the gauge around the South Pole and has
climbed to a BULLISH 3 reading (out of a possible 7).

LONG-TERM: The weekly gauge has reached the half-way point in
its decline phase. It has advanced despite the market's
turnaround essentially because of what falls off the back end of
the time frame it measures. That kind of continuation on the
gauge in the direction of the prior trend is to be expected at a
short-term countertrend move. The weekly gauge is storing up a
kind of potential energy for a whip around and indeed our weekly
CDI has reversed to a BULLISH 1 (out of 7) reading despite the
gauge's bearish continuation. What we're really looking for with
the weekly gauge is confirmation on the mid-term trends. And
obviously the market's reversal, begun last week, is, and remains
unconfirmed. We'll be watching these gauges to see whether we
get the confirmation or not. If not, then we can anticipate the
market moving to new lows.

[Camisa Roxa]

Acho que deixei de receber isto

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