Rendimento das famílias trava a fundo no início do ano

[Camisa Roxa]

Nasdaq Commentary

For the first time in about four weeks we finally saw a hint of the reversal that was
looming. With substantial moves above resistance lines and moving average lines, we
are now in a position to at least begin questioning our bearish posture. But, rallies
last more than one day, and as of right now, we are still more apt to move lower then
higher. A follow-through day on Tuesday is not just important ? it?s crucial.

For the Nasdaq, we had seen a clear barrier at the 1300 level; we hadn?t been able to
climb back above it all week, except for Friday. However, when we finally did, we did
it with a vengeance. The composite gained over 32 points Friday to close at 1310.18.

But for those who may have been blinded by the recovery, don?t forget that we are
still well under where we started two weeks ago, which was an opening of 1324.74. As
we had mentioned in the Mid-Week Update, the entire 1300-1320 range had been
problematic. We expect no less this time around.

This is not to say that reversal isn?t here, as there is a glimmer of hope for the
bulls. Our other resistance point had been the 10 day moving average line. We finally
did close above it, but we?ll want to stay there for a couple more days of
confirmation.

The concern at this point is the degree of Friday?s rally. More often than not, those
explosive bull runs are followed by explosive bear runs. That?s why we?re hesitant.
We?re still bearish until we?re proven wrong.

Resistance is at 1320 and 1330, while support remains at 1260.

Daily Chart of the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX)

S&P 100 (OEX) Commentary

The S&P 100 made a nice recovery Friday from Thursday?s new low. But like the Nasdaq,
it?s still just not convincing, despite closing at the high of 422.52.

Unlike the Nasdaq, the OEX did NOT move above its 10 day line, and that is why we are
hesitant about a continuation next week. Not only that, we again encountered clear
resistance at the 425 level we had been mentioning.

As if that were not bearish enough, on Thursday, we made a new low that was under our
downtrending support lines. This is an indication that there may be a few desperate
sellers left.

So despite a huge day Friday, all technical indications are saying that we have yet
to break out of this downtrend. We are on the brink though, but will need a day or
two of confirmation before reconsidering our bearishness.

Support is currently at 410, with resistance at 425 and again at 430. Beyond that,
470 is serving as our final resistance level.

Daily Chart of the S&P 100 (OEX)

The Bottom Line

No matter how great Friday seemed, and no matter how ?due? we are for a bullish
reversal, don?t get pulled into the market by one errant day. We did cross some major
hurdles, and it?s encouraging that we have that kind of strength. But the chart
formations from Friday are also good setups for a complete reversal on Tuesday.
Considering that we are contending with threats of terrorism, military conflict, and
a questionable economy, investors are emotional, and that?s dangerous. Patience is
advised through Wednesday, when well have a chance to gauge the true color of the
market.