SPX Update 2003 Feb 6
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SPX Update 2003 Feb 6
Embora este update venha um pouco tarde para hoje eu não o queria deixar de mostrar:
SPX:
Yesterday was a black candle with a bearish long upper tail.
MACD Histogram reversed to the downside. MACD continues lower.
The rising window on July 29, 2002 from 852.85 - 855.20 was broken again yesterday on a closing basis.
Net new Highs - new Lows are now equal.
Support is retracement .5=862, .618=840 .786=809 and TD magnet price at 776.76.
Fibo resistance from Jan High to recent low is at .382=877 .5=888 .618=899
10 min chart has a rising window from 841.5 - 847.62 providing support and Tuesday's low was 840.9 but we didn't close through the bottom of the window. Should we close below 841.5 on an hourly basis then wave 3 down will be underway. Otherwise expect a rally.
[NOTE:] Pertinent to the equities and gold market yesterday was a BULLISH ENGULFING pattern which means that we are probably into a corrective rally. FWIW.
[NOTE:] Here we are at 851 or thereabouts. The bottom was a weak bullish HARAMI reversal implying a consolidation and not a major new rally. This suggests to me that we will go below the recent low and attempt what could be C=A*1.618=799. This is not my preferred count but one that I am watching closely. My preferred count is that we will go substantially below 799.
[Note:] As everyone knows there are many potentially valid EWC's in the market at any one time. One particularly ominous count right now would be that the Oct low was a wave (1) down with the Dec high as wave (2) and that the Dec low was wave 1 down with the Jan high as wave 2. Under this count we are at the edge of the precipice of a 3rd of a 3rd. Given the machinations of war and potential collapse of the $ who knows. More danger in being long than short is all I can say.
DAILY TD SEQUENTIAL: TD Sequential 9 days down on Jan 28 and now in the countdown phase.
EWC: X wave peak March 19, 2002. It appears as if an abc or E of a contracting triangle terminated on Jan 15. We now appear to be entering impulsve waves to the downside. Going back above Jan 15 high would of course force a re-count. Support is at .382=884 .5=862 .618=840. In the event this is an abc then action around c=a=850 is critical. With a rising window from 852.85 - 855.20 this would be an ideal place for wave 1 to end in order to create maximum EWC confusion.
BEARS WANT: 935.05 on Jan 13 to be a completed E wave of a contracting triangle. Am now thinking that we have entered wave 3 to the downside. So far the downwaves look like 5s and the up waves like 3s. This implies to me that we are in wave 3 with a series of 1,2s. This implies a very, very weak market. If so, then I am expecting a bit of weakness at the open to finish another wave "i" down to be followed by a corrective rally not to exceed 861.63 but probably above 855 in the region of the daily rising window mentioned above. If we exceed yesterday's high 861.63 then this count is invalid In that scenario wave 2 correction is not over. [NOTE: The NDX is displaying the same wave characteristics.] Fibo resistance from Jan high to recent low is at .382=877 .5=888 .618=899. [STRATEGY:] Add to shorts above 876 with STOP=891 or if we go below 840.19 on a closing basis of the 10 min chart with STOP=853.
BULLS WANT: the Dec 31st low be an intervening X wave and that we are in corrective wave c of B. Retracement of .5=82 and if c=a=850. There is a rising window from 852.85 - 855.20 providing support. Then if C=A=1035 and this abc would exceed the August 2002 high.
DAILY TREND: Up: TRADE: SHORT (Jan 21) STOP: 891 (raised Feb 3) NOT VALID: If we go above 901. Long-term: EWC not valid If we go above 954.28 then probability of 999 - 1075 increases. We shall see.
BACKGROUND
WEEKLY TREND:Down: Last week was a DOJI and creates the potential for a bullish reversal MORNING STAR for this upcoming week. MACD has had a bearish crossover and MACD continues to trend lower below the zero line. The previous week's downside breakout of a qualified TD Supply Line was confirmed last week indicating that the trend continues to be down. The measured move is to 784 then 698. Support is at retracement of .5=862 which was near the low of 859.71 next is .618=840. A decisive move below 843 will be a signal that we have entered wave 3 to the downside given there is not much support below that level My weekly volatility indicator is nearer the overbought range than the oversold range indicating that it will take a large move down to get it oversold. ADX has turned up indicating that a downtrend is in force.
MONTHLY TREND: Down: - January can be viewed as an INVERTED HAMMER which is bullish. However its lower tail is more than 10% of the body and it is not occurring after a long downtrend so it loses significance as a reversal signal. I view it as a bearish confirmation of the previous ENGULFING pattern. MACD continues to trend lower and appears to be setting up so that at the next lower low it will diverge providing a bullish signal. We shall see.
(Long-term target is 2nd ABC=1st ABC @ 567. 38.2% of all-time high is 593. Head & Shoulders measured move to 572. Target zone 566 - 600. (Interesting facts: 1552.87 * .618 = 960 & 09/21/01 low = 944.75, 1552.87 * .5 = 776 & 07/24/02 low = 775.68.)
NOTE: Whether we are in a large C wave down or in a 2nd abc the targets interestingly are very close. C=A @ 584 and 2nd ABC=1st ABC @ 567. Also this is essentially the same target as the H&S measured move to 572.
P.S. Embora ande com bastante falta de tempo para aqui vir, desejo bons negócios para todos.
SPX:
Yesterday was a black candle with a bearish long upper tail.
MACD Histogram reversed to the downside. MACD continues lower.
The rising window on July 29, 2002 from 852.85 - 855.20 was broken again yesterday on a closing basis.
Net new Highs - new Lows are now equal.
Support is retracement .5=862, .618=840 .786=809 and TD magnet price at 776.76.
Fibo resistance from Jan High to recent low is at .382=877 .5=888 .618=899
10 min chart has a rising window from 841.5 - 847.62 providing support and Tuesday's low was 840.9 but we didn't close through the bottom of the window. Should we close below 841.5 on an hourly basis then wave 3 down will be underway. Otherwise expect a rally.
[NOTE:] Pertinent to the equities and gold market yesterday was a BULLISH ENGULFING pattern which means that we are probably into a corrective rally. FWIW.
[NOTE:] Here we are at 851 or thereabouts. The bottom was a weak bullish HARAMI reversal implying a consolidation and not a major new rally. This suggests to me that we will go below the recent low and attempt what could be C=A*1.618=799. This is not my preferred count but one that I am watching closely. My preferred count is that we will go substantially below 799.
[Note:] As everyone knows there are many potentially valid EWC's in the market at any one time. One particularly ominous count right now would be that the Oct low was a wave (1) down with the Dec high as wave (2) and that the Dec low was wave 1 down with the Jan high as wave 2. Under this count we are at the edge of the precipice of a 3rd of a 3rd. Given the machinations of war and potential collapse of the $ who knows. More danger in being long than short is all I can say.
DAILY TD SEQUENTIAL: TD Sequential 9 days down on Jan 28 and now in the countdown phase.
EWC: X wave peak March 19, 2002. It appears as if an abc or E of a contracting triangle terminated on Jan 15. We now appear to be entering impulsve waves to the downside. Going back above Jan 15 high would of course force a re-count. Support is at .382=884 .5=862 .618=840. In the event this is an abc then action around c=a=850 is critical. With a rising window from 852.85 - 855.20 this would be an ideal place for wave 1 to end in order to create maximum EWC confusion.
BEARS WANT: 935.05 on Jan 13 to be a completed E wave of a contracting triangle. Am now thinking that we have entered wave 3 to the downside. So far the downwaves look like 5s and the up waves like 3s. This implies to me that we are in wave 3 with a series of 1,2s. This implies a very, very weak market. If so, then I am expecting a bit of weakness at the open to finish another wave "i" down to be followed by a corrective rally not to exceed 861.63 but probably above 855 in the region of the daily rising window mentioned above. If we exceed yesterday's high 861.63 then this count is invalid In that scenario wave 2 correction is not over. [NOTE: The NDX is displaying the same wave characteristics.] Fibo resistance from Jan high to recent low is at .382=877 .5=888 .618=899. [STRATEGY:] Add to shorts above 876 with STOP=891 or if we go below 840.19 on a closing basis of the 10 min chart with STOP=853.
BULLS WANT: the Dec 31st low be an intervening X wave and that we are in corrective wave c of B. Retracement of .5=82 and if c=a=850. There is a rising window from 852.85 - 855.20 providing support. Then if C=A=1035 and this abc would exceed the August 2002 high.
DAILY TREND: Up: TRADE: SHORT (Jan 21) STOP: 891 (raised Feb 3) NOT VALID: If we go above 901. Long-term: EWC not valid If we go above 954.28 then probability of 999 - 1075 increases. We shall see.
BACKGROUND
WEEKLY TREND:Down: Last week was a DOJI and creates the potential for a bullish reversal MORNING STAR for this upcoming week. MACD has had a bearish crossover and MACD continues to trend lower below the zero line. The previous week's downside breakout of a qualified TD Supply Line was confirmed last week indicating that the trend continues to be down. The measured move is to 784 then 698. Support is at retracement of .5=862 which was near the low of 859.71 next is .618=840. A decisive move below 843 will be a signal that we have entered wave 3 to the downside given there is not much support below that level My weekly volatility indicator is nearer the overbought range than the oversold range indicating that it will take a large move down to get it oversold. ADX has turned up indicating that a downtrend is in force.
MONTHLY TREND: Down: - January can be viewed as an INVERTED HAMMER which is bullish. However its lower tail is more than 10% of the body and it is not occurring after a long downtrend so it loses significance as a reversal signal. I view it as a bearish confirmation of the previous ENGULFING pattern. MACD continues to trend lower and appears to be setting up so that at the next lower low it will diverge providing a bullish signal. We shall see.
(Long-term target is 2nd ABC=1st ABC @ 567. 38.2% of all-time high is 593. Head & Shoulders measured move to 572. Target zone 566 - 600. (Interesting facts: 1552.87 * .618 = 960 & 09/21/01 low = 944.75, 1552.87 * .5 = 776 & 07/24/02 low = 775.68.)
NOTE: Whether we are in a large C wave down or in a 2nd abc the targets interestingly are very close. C=A @ 584 and 2nd ABC=1st ABC @ 567. Also this is essentially the same target as the H&S measured move to 572.
P.S. Embora ande com bastante falta de tempo para aqui vir, desejo bons negócios para todos.
Davos
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- Registado: 5/11/2002 7:28
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