Noticias de Fim de Semana - 1 e 2 Fevereiro de 2003
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The lull before the war
The lull before the war
Colin Powell's big moment and two key economic reports will be the focus in the coming week.
January 31, 2003: 5:49 PM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It will be a new month when the whistle blows Monday morning and traders shuffle their way toward the time clock. They'll sit down at their desks, turn their calendars over to February, look at the four weeks of trading to come. And they'll wonder if one of those days will mark the beginning of war.
It's this waiting, the hunkering down before a conflict that seems increasingly inevitable, that seems like the hard part. Wall Streeters almost hope the war was already on, because if it were they feel they could have some clarity on how the war would progress. Markets hate uncertainty, as the saying goes.
Wall Street could almost hope that war was already on, but most know the present uncertainties could pale before the uncertainty of actual conflict. In the past three weeks the S&P 500 has fallen 8.3 percent as the view that a war with Iraq would be necessarily antiseptic and short has been whittled out of the market.
"I don't think there's any doubt that we're going in," said Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeff Saut. "And I don't think there's any doubt over the eventual resolution to the war. But there's no way to handicap a war. All these talking heads that are saying it's going to be a short tactical thing, how do they know? Back in 1991 they said it was going to be a long drawn-out thing."
And so, again, it will be a week driven by the war drums' beat, with investors trying to calculate the incalculable and whispers running through the market. (Click here for a rundown of the week's events.)
An Adlai Stevenson moment
The main event for the week will be Wednesday, when Secretary of State Colin Powell will present the United States' case against Iraq before the United Nations Security Council.
In his State of the Union speech last Tuesday, President Bush indicated that Powell would bring new evidence showing that Iraq has deceived U.N. weapons inspectors and demonstrating links between Baghdad and al Qaeda terrorists. The sense among Washington watchers is that Powell may succeed on the first count, but the second may be more difficult to achieve.
The key for investors, said International Strategy and Investment Group political analyst Tom Gallagher, will be how effective Powell is in swaying the international community to the U.S. side.
"The markets care about how divisive a war is," he said. "The markets would feel better if the United States had broad, multilateral support."
As to the war itself, Gallagher has come to feel that it is nearly inevitable. But he also points out, using the language of game theory, that the way Washington is going full throttle on the war rhetoric makes war somewhat less likely.
"Based on a model that Saddam responds only to a credible threat of military force, Bush's default option is war and that's what he elects if none of the better options happen," he said. "So his strategy is to prepare for the default option, which raises the probability of all the other options."
What are the other options? Saddam cooperates. Saddam abdicates. There's a coup. But of course Bush can't merely be bluffing -- if he is called on it, his cards must read war.
Butter for guns?
There are a couple of key economic reports in the coming week. With luck they will treat investors kindly.
First up is the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index of manufacturing activity on Monday. Back in the beginning of January, the index came in surprisingly well, jumping to 54.7 for December from 49.2. That spurred a big rally. Many economists were quick to pooh-pooh the move, however, saying there must be something screwy with the number.
But regional indexes have since come in strongly, most recently the Chicago-area Purchasing Managers' Index Friday. That suggests, said Salomon Smith Barney economist Chris Wiegand, that the December numbers weren't completely bogus. He thinks the index probably held steady for January. (Note that ISM subsequently revised its December reading up to 55.2.)
"There's been continued resilience among consumers," said Wiegand. "And manufacturers are having to produce things to meet that demand."
The January jobs report, due on Friday, could also boost investors' mood. In part because of seasonal adjustment factors, and in part because weekly continuing jobless claims have been moderating, Wiegand thinks the unemployment rate shifted down to 5.9 percent from 6 percent in December, and that the economy added 125,000 jobs. That suggests that the labor market is just moving sideways, he emphasized -- nothing to pump your fist about, but a whole lot better than a jobs environment that's getting worse.
So what's the big picture? Wiegand thinks that, despite all the war worries, the economy has been slowly gaining momentum, recovering from the soft patch it ran into late last summer and early fall.
"The one thing that we can take solace in," he said, "is if we go to war with Iraq the economy is gaining a little momentum. That's better than an economy that's losing momentum very quickly."
Key events in the week ahead
Monday morning the Institute for Supply Management will give its latest read on the manufacturing economy when it releases its January Purchasing Managers' Index. Economists expect it to take back some of December's big surge, which they view as an aberration. The consensus forecast, according to Briefing.com, is for the index to drop to 53 from December's 55.2. The forecast may not include recent data revisions, however.
Through the day Monday automobile companies will be releasing January sales figures. Economists expect sales slipped to an annualized 13.2 million after surging to 14.8 million in December. Sales continue to be powered by generous incentives -- a ploy that risks eating not into carmakers present profit margins, but future sales.
Construction spending for December is due out Monday. Economists expect it picked up 0.3 percent, in line with November's 0.3 percent gain and reflecting a still-strong housing market.
December factory orders are due Tuesday, with economists expecting a 0.8 percent gain after November's 0.3 percent fall. Most of what's in this report was available in the earlier durable goods numbers.
The key earnings report of the week comes after the close Tuesday, when Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates) posts its numbers for the quarter ended January. The key here will be what Cisco says about its future. Investors are hopeful that its business will benefit from a Net-gear upgrade cycle, but recent evidence from other parts of tech land suggest companies continue to balk on shelling out cash even to replace over-the-hill equipment. Analysts surveyed by First Call think Cisco earned 13 cents a share.
Secretary of State Colin Powell goes before the United Nations Security Council Wednesday to make the United States case against Iraq.
The Institute for Supply Management releases its services index on Wednesday. Economists scoff that it isn't credible, but its the best quick read of the service economy that traders know. The forecast is that it to slipped to 54 in January from December's 54.7.
Friday the Labor Department releases the January jobs report. Economists expect the economy added 63,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 6 percent.
Colin Powell's big moment and two key economic reports will be the focus in the coming week.
January 31, 2003: 5:49 PM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It will be a new month when the whistle blows Monday morning and traders shuffle their way toward the time clock. They'll sit down at their desks, turn their calendars over to February, look at the four weeks of trading to come. And they'll wonder if one of those days will mark the beginning of war.
It's this waiting, the hunkering down before a conflict that seems increasingly inevitable, that seems like the hard part. Wall Streeters almost hope the war was already on, because if it were they feel they could have some clarity on how the war would progress. Markets hate uncertainty, as the saying goes.
Wall Street could almost hope that war was already on, but most know the present uncertainties could pale before the uncertainty of actual conflict. In the past three weeks the S&P 500 has fallen 8.3 percent as the view that a war with Iraq would be necessarily antiseptic and short has been whittled out of the market.
"I don't think there's any doubt that we're going in," said Raymond James chief investment strategist Jeff Saut. "And I don't think there's any doubt over the eventual resolution to the war. But there's no way to handicap a war. All these talking heads that are saying it's going to be a short tactical thing, how do they know? Back in 1991 they said it was going to be a long drawn-out thing."
And so, again, it will be a week driven by the war drums' beat, with investors trying to calculate the incalculable and whispers running through the market. (Click here for a rundown of the week's events.)
An Adlai Stevenson moment
The main event for the week will be Wednesday, when Secretary of State Colin Powell will present the United States' case against Iraq before the United Nations Security Council.
In his State of the Union speech last Tuesday, President Bush indicated that Powell would bring new evidence showing that Iraq has deceived U.N. weapons inspectors and demonstrating links between Baghdad and al Qaeda terrorists. The sense among Washington watchers is that Powell may succeed on the first count, but the second may be more difficult to achieve.
The key for investors, said International Strategy and Investment Group political analyst Tom Gallagher, will be how effective Powell is in swaying the international community to the U.S. side.
"The markets care about how divisive a war is," he said. "The markets would feel better if the United States had broad, multilateral support."
As to the war itself, Gallagher has come to feel that it is nearly inevitable. But he also points out, using the language of game theory, that the way Washington is going full throttle on the war rhetoric makes war somewhat less likely.
"Based on a model that Saddam responds only to a credible threat of military force, Bush's default option is war and that's what he elects if none of the better options happen," he said. "So his strategy is to prepare for the default option, which raises the probability of all the other options."
What are the other options? Saddam cooperates. Saddam abdicates. There's a coup. But of course Bush can't merely be bluffing -- if he is called on it, his cards must read war.
Butter for guns?
There are a couple of key economic reports in the coming week. With luck they will treat investors kindly.
First up is the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index of manufacturing activity on Monday. Back in the beginning of January, the index came in surprisingly well, jumping to 54.7 for December from 49.2. That spurred a big rally. Many economists were quick to pooh-pooh the move, however, saying there must be something screwy with the number.
But regional indexes have since come in strongly, most recently the Chicago-area Purchasing Managers' Index Friday. That suggests, said Salomon Smith Barney economist Chris Wiegand, that the December numbers weren't completely bogus. He thinks the index probably held steady for January. (Note that ISM subsequently revised its December reading up to 55.2.)
"There's been continued resilience among consumers," said Wiegand. "And manufacturers are having to produce things to meet that demand."
The January jobs report, due on Friday, could also boost investors' mood. In part because of seasonal adjustment factors, and in part because weekly continuing jobless claims have been moderating, Wiegand thinks the unemployment rate shifted down to 5.9 percent from 6 percent in December, and that the economy added 125,000 jobs. That suggests that the labor market is just moving sideways, he emphasized -- nothing to pump your fist about, but a whole lot better than a jobs environment that's getting worse.
So what's the big picture? Wiegand thinks that, despite all the war worries, the economy has been slowly gaining momentum, recovering from the soft patch it ran into late last summer and early fall.
"The one thing that we can take solace in," he said, "is if we go to war with Iraq the economy is gaining a little momentum. That's better than an economy that's losing momentum very quickly."
Key events in the week ahead
Monday morning the Institute for Supply Management will give its latest read on the manufacturing economy when it releases its January Purchasing Managers' Index. Economists expect it to take back some of December's big surge, which they view as an aberration. The consensus forecast, according to Briefing.com, is for the index to drop to 53 from December's 55.2. The forecast may not include recent data revisions, however.
Through the day Monday automobile companies will be releasing January sales figures. Economists expect sales slipped to an annualized 13.2 million after surging to 14.8 million in December. Sales continue to be powered by generous incentives -- a ploy that risks eating not into carmakers present profit margins, but future sales.
Construction spending for December is due out Monday. Economists expect it picked up 0.3 percent, in line with November's 0.3 percent gain and reflecting a still-strong housing market.
December factory orders are due Tuesday, with economists expecting a 0.8 percent gain after November's 0.3 percent fall. Most of what's in this report was available in the earlier durable goods numbers.
The key earnings report of the week comes after the close Tuesday, when Cisco (CSCO: Research, Estimates) posts its numbers for the quarter ended January. The key here will be what Cisco says about its future. Investors are hopeful that its business will benefit from a Net-gear upgrade cycle, but recent evidence from other parts of tech land suggest companies continue to balk on shelling out cash even to replace over-the-hill equipment. Analysts surveyed by First Call think Cisco earned 13 cents a share.
Secretary of State Colin Powell goes before the United Nations Security Council Wednesday to make the United States case against Iraq.
The Institute for Supply Management releases its services index on Wednesday. Economists scoff that it isn't credible, but its the best quick read of the service economy that traders know. The forecast is that it to slipped to 54 in January from December's 54.7.
Friday the Labor Department releases the January jobs report. Economists expect the economy added 63,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held steady at 6 percent.
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
- Localização: 4
PT: Presidente da TCO avia as malas
PT: Presidente da TCO avia as malas
31-1-2003 19:59
O presidente da Tele Centro Oeste (TCO), Mário César Pereira de Araújo, anunciou hoje que vai abandonar o cargo. Segundo a impresa local, o presidente cessante vai assumir as rédeas da TIM Brasil
A presidência da TCO será assumida pelo director de engenharia, Sérgio Ascenço, até que a Brasilcel (joint venture entre a PT - Portugal Telecom e a Telefónica) definam a nova estrutura, após a formalização da aquisição.
Recorda-se que a Brasilcel lançou uma Oferta Pública de Aquisição sobre a TCO.
31-1-2003 19:59
O presidente da Tele Centro Oeste (TCO), Mário César Pereira de Araújo, anunciou hoje que vai abandonar o cargo. Segundo a impresa local, o presidente cessante vai assumir as rédeas da TIM Brasil
A presidência da TCO será assumida pelo director de engenharia, Sérgio Ascenço, até que a Brasilcel (joint venture entre a PT - Portugal Telecom e a Telefónica) definam a nova estrutura, após a formalização da aquisição.
Recorda-se que a Brasilcel lançou uma Oferta Pública de Aquisição sobre a TCO.
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
- Localização: 4
Noticias de Fim de Semana - 1 e 2 Fevereiro de 2003
Acções americanas fecham mistas com Disney e Boeing a ajudarem Dow Jones a subir 1,37%
Sexta, 31 Jan 2003 21:27
As acções americanas fecharam mistas com a Boeing e a Walt Disney a ajudarem o Dow Jones a ganhar 1,37%, mas os resultados da Applied Materials a penalizarem as companhias tecnológicas, levando o Nasdaq a cair 0,11%.
O Nasdaq terminou nos 1.320,92 pontos e o Dow Jones avançou para os 8.053,81 pontos.
Os papéis da Applied Materials caíram 7,57%, penalizando a indústria tecnológica. A empresa que produz «chips» disse que as encomendas no primeiro trimestre fiscal caíram 35% para um valor abaixo das expectativas dos analistas.
A Intel caiu 0,57%, a Cisco Systems deslizou 3,6% e a Dell Computer desvalorizou 1,32%.
A Walt-Disney somou 6,79%, depois da empresa de media, a segunda maior dos EUA, ter divulgado lucros no primeiro trimestre fiscal acima das estimativas dos analistas.
Os papéis da Boeing valorizaram 3,20%. O maior fabricante de aviões do mundo ganhou um contrato com a Ryanair Holding, no valor de 6 mil milhões de dólares (5,58 mil milhões de euros).
A impulsionar ainda o Dow Jones, esteve a General Electric que avançou 2,44% e a AT&T cresceu 4,38%
Sexta, 31 Jan 2003 21:27
As acções americanas fecharam mistas com a Boeing e a Walt Disney a ajudarem o Dow Jones a ganhar 1,37%, mas os resultados da Applied Materials a penalizarem as companhias tecnológicas, levando o Nasdaq a cair 0,11%.
O Nasdaq terminou nos 1.320,92 pontos e o Dow Jones avançou para os 8.053,81 pontos.
Os papéis da Applied Materials caíram 7,57%, penalizando a indústria tecnológica. A empresa que produz «chips» disse que as encomendas no primeiro trimestre fiscal caíram 35% para um valor abaixo das expectativas dos analistas.
A Intel caiu 0,57%, a Cisco Systems deslizou 3,6% e a Dell Computer desvalorizou 1,32%.
A Walt-Disney somou 6,79%, depois da empresa de media, a segunda maior dos EUA, ter divulgado lucros no primeiro trimestre fiscal acima das estimativas dos analistas.
Os papéis da Boeing valorizaram 3,20%. O maior fabricante de aviões do mundo ganhou um contrato com a Ryanair Holding, no valor de 6 mil milhões de dólares (5,58 mil milhões de euros).
A impulsionar ainda o Dow Jones, esteve a General Electric que avançou 2,44% e a AT&T cresceu 4,38%
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
- Localização: 4
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