Petróleo sob pressão após ataque dos EUA ao Irão

[Camisa Roxa]

Peço desculpa pelo atraso, mas aqui vai ele:

WEDNESDAY a.m.
January 22, 2003



Enter Rydex Bearish Positions
by David Nichols

The mid-term trend is now fully confirmed to the downside. I'm recommending a small position in the Rydex Venture Fund (RYVNX) and also the Rydex Tempest Fund (RYTPX) at the close today.

If you just want to do one position, then enter the Venture Fund.

These are both mutual funds that move at twice the inverse rate of the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500, respectively, on a daily basis. If the NDX moves down 4%, RYVNX should go up around 8%. That's how they're designed to move, and it works well. Of course this leverage works the other way as well, and you can lose at twice the rate if the market goes up.

But a signal is a signal, and we're going in on these bearish positions. Interestingly, it is likely that we'll get a bounce today, so our entry price will be better. That is actually a better scenario for us. It would be ideal if the markets enter a tepid short-term advance phase, in the process relieving the short-term extension to the downside. Such a bounce will give us better entry prices at the close.

Now, there is one important condition to this Rydex recommendation. This is important. If the markets have a big down day today, with the averages down 2% or more, then do not enter these positions. Such a move would stretch the fractal dimensions too far down -- and a bounce would become exceedingly likely. The market will have to pause and congest before the downtrend would have a chance to continue. This relief can happen by a sideways move or an oversold bounce. In such a scenario, we don't want to overpay for these positions -- so hold off if there is a wipeout to the downside.

Also, I'm recommending only a smallish position and to not go in too large right here -- as there are still some potentially big positives out there for the market. Money placed on the short side in the current environment is actually subject to more than the usual amount of event risk. But at this point, these are just potential positives, and the market is currently saying in no uncertain terms that it doesn't believe any of these positive things will materialize. It's started a major daily downtrend, the kind that can theoretically go on for weeks.

The VIX has continued to move up, which is one of the main components that tripped the mid-term dashboard into a downtrend with high confidence. Yesterday it popped up over 30 on a white daily candle.



There is a tide of rising fear, at least in the OEX options pit. Over at the QQQ, there doesn't seem to be much fear of anything. The QQV, almost unbelievably, put up yet another red daily candle yesterday. Even though the price of options gapped up at the open -- indicating at least some initial demand for puts -- by the end of the day the market makers were able to work the price of QQQ options back down.



This lack of fear in the Nasdaq 100 is the single most bearish thing I can point to right now, and it's one of the primary reasons why I want to do these Rydex positions. What's it going to take to get traders nervous about the market? There's an easy answer, and it's dramatically lower prices on the Nasdaq 100 and QQQ.

Again, don't hesitate to take a small position in these funds at the close today even if the market is showing some strength. A short-term advance phase is overdue. But it shouldn't be able to mount much of a charge higher, judging by the recent selling wave, and it will serve a good purpose by getting us a better entry price. Actually, a short-term advance phase could last a few days at this point.

But it's going to be hard to unwind the downside damage that has already been done. Unless there is a dramatic and sudden change of character for the markets, coming out-of-the-blue, all signs are pointing to lower prices ahead.