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Right now too many bulls have gotten comfortable with the idea that we are in some new bull market or something.

Our Market Force signals are strong bearish today ...

[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish. Looking for pullback today.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, October 29, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.70 Value Area
Range: 6.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,132.25-1,131.25 Sell Pivot
High 1,131.20
1,129.70
Close 1,127.60
Open 1,123.50
1,123.30
1,121.75-1,122.75 Buy Pivot
Low 1,120.50
1,109.00 Pit Bull MA


Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, October 28, 2004:
1)S@1122.00/B@1122.50 -.50......

2)S@1123.50/B@1125.75 -2.25...

3)S@1126.25/B@1125.00 +1.25....

4)S@1126.25/B@1128.00 -1.75...

*there were 2 optional trades for +1.75 and -2.00

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.

Thursday showed some more buying enthusiasm but with a slow, rather flat grind higher. We took small stabs at the sell side but were premature. Later hitting the 1131.00 Sell Pivot target in last hour saw more downside pressure. We expect more follow through on the downside today.

Here are my Wrap Up comments for Thursday's action.

"Today was a more active day as we took small shots at the short side in trading. The market was once again pretty strong earlier as prices kept slowly drifting up.

First signal was in the first hour where we went short jumping on the lower trend opening at 1122.00. Prices went down and made the Hour One low at 1020.50 and started pushing higher. We got out at 1122.50 with a -.50 loss.

Our next trade was higher at 1123.50 which pulled back a bit and then moved higher stopping us out at 1125.75 for a -2.25 loss. Our 3rd attempt here to short a bit higher at 1126.25 pulled back to 1125.00 and we covered noticing the support at 1125.00 for a +1.25 profit.

A reversal at that point I had suggested as optional going long at 1124.50 moved higher towards 1126.25 for a +1.75 profit.

Up there I had suggested one more official trade short at 1126.25 and prices continued higher again where we got out at 1128.00 for -1.75 loss. A final Optional trade short up there (1128.00) also saw prices continue higher so we exited that for -2.00.

Prices continued higher to 1131.00 and then fell back some when the short side finally kicked in some."

Today's Call & Briefing:
All signals coming in for today are suggesting lower prices and a pullback off of these highs.

Support is at 1111.00 area with 1123.00 coming in first. We are going to be looking for a short trade very near the opening especially if we get a HIGHER OPENING.

LIVE UPDATES TRADERS BE READY TO GO SHORT NEAR THE OPEN.

Right now too many bulls have gotten comfortable with the idea that we are in some new bull market or something. I believe that is coming but right now our Market Force signals are suggesting some more downside pressure is needed.

Usually the genuine bullish periods start from an area where no one believes the market could get bullish. Many are overwhelmingly bullish right now.

RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:

Watch for early breakdown in the markets with prices and High 5 under pressure sending prices down to Hour One lows, stalling and attempting to make a rally off those lows that cannot get going. This will be the first sign of weakness.

If we are still bullish there will finally be some strength garnered and prices could push higher. However we are expecting they will continue to pull back.

Look to Sell any moves up to the Hour One high today.

If we hit the Hour One low pivot FIRST then we will be watching for a bounce off the Hour One low that RETURNS to the low with a Bearish or Mega Bearish High 5. We would then expect slow erosion below the Hour One pivot.

Numbers lower include: 1123.50- 1121.75-1118-19.00 and then 1116.25 -1115.00 and 1111.50 stronger support.

Upside resistance: 1131-32 again and then 1136.50

1124-30 is a sort of limbo or "Line in the sand" area. Key for bearish is below 1124-25 holding lower.

Value Area: 1,123.30 - 1,129.70
Trade below 1123.00 bottom of Value Area coincides with our Call and Briefing numbers for being bearish.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,121.75 - 1,122.75
Support here is expected to try to push higher but then fall back below or stall at this area. With recent bullish mood it wouldn't be a surprise to see prices stabalize here or just below.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,132.25 - 1,131.25
Keep selling here. Market is overcooked bullish right now and should pull back from this number.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,109.00
Support is just above this number at 1111.00.

If for any reason we get overwhelmingly bearish today (not expected but possible) we could see the Pit Bull come into play again. Would take some strong, negative news event to run em this low today.

Pro Trader's Action
Our Market Force signals are strong bearish today and we would expect some kind of pullback. Not sure how strong it could be but as many of the insiders let some of the air out of the tires of this recent overcooked bull run we could get a draw back.

We are going to look for shorting opportunities off the open today and then compare with the Hour One strategies shown above to see how either compares with the early trade.

Good Luck with your trades today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan