Mohan 28/10/04
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Mohan 28/10/04
Market Force: Bearish on early higher prices today. Look for weakness on early higher prices in the market today. If we get a strong, early drop then support is expected to come in for a higher stretch toward 1141.00 again.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 19.60 Value Area
Range: 14.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,132.00-1,131.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,126.50
Close 1,124.80
1,121.70
1,112.25-1,113.25 Buy Pivot
Open 1,109.50
Low 1,106.90
1,106.90
1,106.50 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 27, 2004:
1)S@111.25/B@1109.25 +2.00.....
2)S@1116.00/B@1120.00 -4.00....
3)S@1122.00/B@1123.50 -1.50.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning. The market put in another impressive day to the upside opening up the new Buy Mode or possibly just creating another aberration.
We got a run up on Wednesday right to the same price point of 1126.00 that has proven to be a pivot point since mid September. The big question for today is can this rally hold up or will we settle back in a range near the 1112.00 area.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the Live Update service.
"After yesterday's run up today was important to see if we were going to start a more bullish type move or fall back. In the Day to Day sequencing pattern today the market normally would have rallied early, hung up near the Highs and then fallen back later in the session. What occured was pirces moved higher earlier as planed but the High 5 became increasingly bullish as the day moved on pushing prices higher.
We sold short first at 1111.25 and covered at 1109.25 for a quick scalp +2.00 profit.
As the market pushed higher we got short again in the Sell Pivot Target area at 1116.00. Prices hung up there and we had designated 1119.00 as an area to get out. Prices held below that and pressed towards 1117.00 but found support there. We extended our stop to 1120.00 but as prices rose that was hit for a -4.00 loss.
Our final trade within our parameters of either reversing or re-entering same side came at 1122.00 where we re-entered short looking for a stronger pullback later into the close. Prices held lower but finally began to rise again as Nasdaq gained strength and the TRIN moved lower. We got out with a -1.50 loss at 1123.50. The market continued higher into the close and overall put in another bullish day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today I am expecting prices to pull back off of any early higher price runs.
There is a good chance we could see some weakness right off the opening and if we did most likely this would be a supportive move for continued higher prices running into Monday.
We had an amazing 2 day run off of 1089.00 low trailing all the way back to 1126.00 resistance right at the close Wednesday. There is a good chance of a stretch up to 1141.00 again as we enter into the 2nd aberration on the Sell Mode. This time there is a chance that we have completed the Sell Mode on that 2nd test lower and this 2 day rally is confirming that. We will know more today as to whether we get a strong lower move early that finds support or we try and rally a bit earlier which would give us a sell opportunity.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If we get higher prices off the open it is most likely going to be the "Johnny come lately" bulls to this rally. That will be a fade as we look for a Selling point.
Most likely we will find this up near the Sell Pivot target today which we can trade at if we hit that near the first 20 minutes of trading.
Otherwise we will wait for the first hour to complete.
If we get a fairly strong drop right off the open then most likely this will be a continuation setup for higher prices as the lower move finds support and pushes higher.
Today is scheduled as a Sell Market Force day so we want to tend to stay on that side, especially on the higher opening and early rally type scenario.
Important day today with the chance for us to see if the support is coming in strong on a lower move or we are going to drift back towards 1112.00 to settle in until the election is over.
If they stay strong then we are going to stretch back up to 1141.00 again.
Value Area: 1,106.90 - 1,121.70
Trade holding above 1121.75 on a pullback is a bullish sign and will most likely provide support for a move gradually stretching back to 1141.00 over next few days.
If we lose support at the top of this Value Area then we could run back lower towards 1112.00 getting back to a more neutral reading. The Day to Day sequencing pattern for today is for a Sell off day on a higher opening and early push up in prices.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,112.25 - 1,113.25
This will be stronger support today but if we head all the way back down here it will neutralize the market going into the election.
Support above 1119.00 should get us going in a stretch back towards 1141.00 if the High 5 stay nice and bullish.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,132.00 - 1,131.00
We could stretch up here early today and we would look for a short sale in this area.
1136.25 is the +4.25 stop/pivot and should hold back any mega bullish, early rally.
Right now I wouldn't put anything past this market. We could be in a turn around mode here as we head into the end of the year.
I am concerned however that we just run up to 1141.00 again and then pullback into this zone we have been hanging out in. So we just trade em accordingly.
Overall we could have a huge backloaded bullish end of quarter.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,106.50
After crossing over the Pit Bull we are now in a Buy drops mode as we look to see how deep they pullback today off of any higher moves.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to stay on the Sell side today with confirming High 5. I was taking shots at the sell side the last 2 days against the High 5 and even though we use very tight stops it is still not pleasant seeing them get hit.
TRIN surprisingly has been high and the market is still rallying. This threw me off a bit but looking back we see how it was overcooked having been trading above 1.50 for some days and so simply pulling back below 1.00 became a bullish reaction with this indicator.
As long as Nasdaq is strong with the Dow and we have the correlating VIX/VXO down and TRIN lower we have to honor the bullish action going into the end of the year.
Opposite of that we can still sell em on days, like today, in the Day to Day sequencing pattern that calls for weakness.
Good Luck today with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 19.60 Value Area
Range: 14.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,132.00-1,131.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,126.50
Close 1,124.80
1,121.70
1,112.25-1,113.25 Buy Pivot
Open 1,109.50
Low 1,106.90
1,106.90
1,106.50 Pit Bull MA
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 27, 2004:
1)S@111.25/B@1109.25 +2.00.....
2)S@1116.00/B@1120.00 -4.00....
3)S@1122.00/B@1123.50 -1.50.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning. The market put in another impressive day to the upside opening up the new Buy Mode or possibly just creating another aberration.
We got a run up on Wednesday right to the same price point of 1126.00 that has proven to be a pivot point since mid September. The big question for today is can this rally hold up or will we settle back in a range near the 1112.00 area.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the Live Update service.
"After yesterday's run up today was important to see if we were going to start a more bullish type move or fall back. In the Day to Day sequencing pattern today the market normally would have rallied early, hung up near the Highs and then fallen back later in the session. What occured was pirces moved higher earlier as planed but the High 5 became increasingly bullish as the day moved on pushing prices higher.
We sold short first at 1111.25 and covered at 1109.25 for a quick scalp +2.00 profit.
As the market pushed higher we got short again in the Sell Pivot Target area at 1116.00. Prices hung up there and we had designated 1119.00 as an area to get out. Prices held below that and pressed towards 1117.00 but found support there. We extended our stop to 1120.00 but as prices rose that was hit for a -4.00 loss.
Our final trade within our parameters of either reversing or re-entering same side came at 1122.00 where we re-entered short looking for a stronger pullback later into the close. Prices held lower but finally began to rise again as Nasdaq gained strength and the TRIN moved lower. We got out with a -1.50 loss at 1123.50. The market continued higher into the close and overall put in another bullish day."
Today's Call & Briefing:
For today I am expecting prices to pull back off of any early higher price runs.
There is a good chance we could see some weakness right off the opening and if we did most likely this would be a supportive move for continued higher prices running into Monday.
We had an amazing 2 day run off of 1089.00 low trailing all the way back to 1126.00 resistance right at the close Wednesday. There is a good chance of a stretch up to 1141.00 again as we enter into the 2nd aberration on the Sell Mode. This time there is a chance that we have completed the Sell Mode on that 2nd test lower and this 2 day rally is confirming that. We will know more today as to whether we get a strong lower move early that finds support or we try and rally a bit earlier which would give us a sell opportunity.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If we get higher prices off the open it is most likely going to be the "Johnny come lately" bulls to this rally. That will be a fade as we look for a Selling point.
Most likely we will find this up near the Sell Pivot target today which we can trade at if we hit that near the first 20 minutes of trading.
Otherwise we will wait for the first hour to complete.
If we get a fairly strong drop right off the open then most likely this will be a continuation setup for higher prices as the lower move finds support and pushes higher.
Today is scheduled as a Sell Market Force day so we want to tend to stay on that side, especially on the higher opening and early rally type scenario.
Important day today with the chance for us to see if the support is coming in strong on a lower move or we are going to drift back towards 1112.00 to settle in until the election is over.
If they stay strong then we are going to stretch back up to 1141.00 again.
Value Area: 1,106.90 - 1,121.70
Trade holding above 1121.75 on a pullback is a bullish sign and will most likely provide support for a move gradually stretching back to 1141.00 over next few days.
If we lose support at the top of this Value Area then we could run back lower towards 1112.00 getting back to a more neutral reading. The Day to Day sequencing pattern for today is for a Sell off day on a higher opening and early push up in prices.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,112.25 - 1,113.25
This will be stronger support today but if we head all the way back down here it will neutralize the market going into the election.
Support above 1119.00 should get us going in a stretch back towards 1141.00 if the High 5 stay nice and bullish.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,132.00 - 1,131.00
We could stretch up here early today and we would look for a short sale in this area.
1136.25 is the +4.25 stop/pivot and should hold back any mega bullish, early rally.
Right now I wouldn't put anything past this market. We could be in a turn around mode here as we head into the end of the year.
I am concerned however that we just run up to 1141.00 again and then pullback into this zone we have been hanging out in. So we just trade em accordingly.
Overall we could have a huge backloaded bullish end of quarter.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,106.50
After crossing over the Pit Bull we are now in a Buy drops mode as we look to see how deep they pullback today off of any higher moves.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to stay on the Sell side today with confirming High 5. I was taking shots at the sell side the last 2 days against the High 5 and even though we use very tight stops it is still not pleasant seeing them get hit.
TRIN surprisingly has been high and the market is still rallying. This threw me off a bit but looking back we see how it was overcooked having been trading above 1.50 for some days and so simply pulling back below 1.00 became a bullish reaction with this indicator.
As long as Nasdaq is strong with the Dow and we have the correlating VIX/VXO down and TRIN lower we have to honor the bullish action going into the end of the year.
Opposite of that we can still sell em on days, like today, in the Day to Day sequencing pattern that calls for weakness.
Good Luck today with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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