Mohan 11/10/04
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Mohan 11/10/04
Market Force: Bullish. Watch for possible double test of 1121.00 area but look for bounce today off early lows.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, October 11, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 13.50 Value Area
Range: 9.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,133.80
1,130.50-1,129.50 Sell Pivot
1,129.40
Open 1,128.70
1,124.60 Pit Bull MA
Close 1,122.10
1,120.40
Low 1,120.30
1,117.00-1,118.00 Buy Pivot
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 8, 2004:
1)b@1128.00/s@1125.75 -2.25.....
2)b@1127.50/s@1126.25 -1.25....
3)b@1125.75/s@1124.75 -1.25..
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.
TODAY IS A U.S. NATIONAL HOLIDAY. There may be slow volume today but we plan on looking for a trading opportunity if some volatility is there.
On Friday there was a further sell off with weakness coming in after a small bounce off of our exact support number of 1126.00 mentioned in the Headline Call.
With the way things were setting up in the markets I was looking for a reflex bounce off of moves that kept tapping the 1127.00 area but the weakness was strong and in hindsite selling and holding short was the way to go. I took very little risk on each trade but was still not happy seeing the gradual erosion.
Looking back in hindsite both Thursday and Friday were Sell the Hour One low days back to back as the market let off some steam after being excessively bullish in the Aberration on the Sell Mode.
I've set up some new parameters that I feel will alert me to when this occurs again. I've back tested them extensively and look forward to introducing the process right away.
Here are my closing comments from the Live Update Service.
"After the pre-market Jobs report came out the market got a bit wild moving lower to mentioned support near 1126.00 and then rallying back to the pivot line around 1134.
The official opening was -3.00 handles lower and prices moved lower from there. As prices pulled back I was looking for first support to come in around 1128.50 and gave buy signal with fills coming in around 1128.00 on an MFO signal. Prices attempted to move higher but gradually pulled back and hit our stop at 1125.75 for a -2.25 loss.
Our next attempt at getting long was after seeing a lower move, reflex bounce and support for an attempt to see if we had bottomed using a tight stop. Long at 1127.50 prices continued to weaken and we exited with a -1.25 loss at 1126.25.
We tried one more buy attempt at 1126.25 and was surprised to see the markets continued to slowly grind lower as we had expected 1126 would hold up being the pivot line for the Sell Mode. We got out with a -1.25 loss on the trade.
Later in the session as prices made a more complete washout at 1120.50 I had indicated on a message that support was strong there but we had no official posted trade. I had also indicated we would see 1123.50 as strong resistance and suggested a short there as an optional trade.
Prices moved up from the 1121.00 area where I had suggested a bottoming, hit 1123.75 on the high of that move and fell back to 1121.50 where I had suggested anyone following those 2 trade ideas could cover the short.
So on balance the official posted trades were down -4.75 and the last two suggestions realized an approximate +4.00 gain if taken."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today, as mentioned on the opening, could be a light volume day due to the U.S. Holiday today. The markets are open but many traders have left the building...like Elvis, so it could be light.
We will still attempt to trade early and see how things pan out.
The ideal setup today would be to look for a slightly lower opening and a slow double bottom near 1120-21.00 which could set up a nice bounce for today.
Now that bounce would not be expected to return us to strong bullish trading like we had recently but more of a "dead cat bounce" type setup (that is a rather odd term but many traders know what this means as CNBC often calls it this too).
If we get a higher opening and early rally attempt then we could see the rally from a direct move off the open and would look to trade that from the standpoint of the Hour One BreakOut... most likely selling an attempt to BreakOut.
The High 5 have been mega bearish the last 2 days with the TRIN going over 1.30 2 days in a row which fits our rule for looking at a repeat on the 3rd day as being "overcooked".
If this occurs it will back up our Headline Call for looking to buy the early drops.
If we hit the Hour One low again as the FIRST pivot hit then we can buy that dip in good confidence. If the High 5 are mega bearish again then give it some room below the Hour One low before buying...usually 2-3 points lower will give the nearly exact low.
Value Area: 1,120.40 - 1,129.40
This is a wide support/resistance area right at the double bottom test we are suggesting could occur and resistance up near our 1131.50 strong resistance area.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,117.00 - 1,118.00
I am not expecting they will get pushed through 1120 today but with the mega bearish readings and the selling enthusiasm if 1120 is stalling and High 5 are weak again we could get once small squash below that.
Ideally to be bullish we would see prices jump right off of that and get cooking to the upside.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,130.50 - 1,129.50
Here is that resistance area again showing up in the Sell Pivot target lending double resistance. Look for a short up here ON A LOWER OPENING AND EARLY RUN LOWER ONLY.
If they take off of the Globex current price of 1124.00 then we could plow through 1129.00 but there is strong resistance at 1131.50.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,124.60
Globex is trading right in this price zone on the overnight trade.
If the market is bullish then we are going to see this Pit Bull get challenged (like on Friday) but keep stubbornly holding support (like today if our call for bullishness is correct).
From that stubborn support will emerge a gradual and then explosive move back to the upside.
I am not sure the Sell Mode is done but if we keep stalling here at the Pit Bull, and it's adjusted 10 day MA daily prices, then we are going back into the Aberration phase above 1126.00 and most likely shoot up back towards 1143.00.
Pro Trader's Action
It's funny how the markets "appears" to be moving according to the legend of the Presidential adage that if the incumbent is showing vicory we see the market rally and if the contender is showing more strength then the markets move lower on "uncertainty".
This is not a political bias but it appears that the markets are tracking what is being reported as public opinion and bias on these debates.
It's still up in the air and these Prez election periods can get a little tense and emotional with all the squabbling about the "issues" floating around.
As mentioned last week, and for several years here in my newsletter, the real isssue that is secretly behind so much of the geopolitical events occuring over the last 3 years is that the world is RUNNING OUT OF OIL... World Oil is expected to hit its peak level of consumption around 2012 or sooner and begin a depletion cycle from that point on.
I have been mentioning this in my newsletter since its inception 2 years ago and now we are seeing the signs with these oil prices getting stuck up above 50$ bucks a barrel. Don't expect them to come down in price by much... if at all.
Anyone interested in the facts surrounding this can email me and I will be glad to forward some beginnig geological reports about this and information concerning geopolitical manipulations that are taking place around this event. It's my public service as part of my daily S&P500 trading advice and ideas. It is not meant as any kind of silly partisan political thing. Don't expect our politicians to admit this to us although "Peak Oil" as a topic is starting to leak out in the mainstream news a bit. We are all in this together as the world starts realizing this is coming.
Let's see if we can get long on an early drop today on the S&P500 and catch some upside bounce.
All the best of success today. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, October 11, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 13.50 Value Area
Range: 9.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,133.80
1,130.50-1,129.50 Sell Pivot
1,129.40
Open 1,128.70
1,124.60 Pit Bull MA
Close 1,122.10
1,120.40
Low 1,120.30
1,117.00-1,118.00 Buy Pivot
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 8, 2004:
1)b@1128.00/s@1125.75 -2.25.....
2)b@1127.50/s@1126.25 -1.25....
3)b@1125.75/s@1124.75 -1.25..
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.
TODAY IS A U.S. NATIONAL HOLIDAY. There may be slow volume today but we plan on looking for a trading opportunity if some volatility is there.
On Friday there was a further sell off with weakness coming in after a small bounce off of our exact support number of 1126.00 mentioned in the Headline Call.
With the way things were setting up in the markets I was looking for a reflex bounce off of moves that kept tapping the 1127.00 area but the weakness was strong and in hindsite selling and holding short was the way to go. I took very little risk on each trade but was still not happy seeing the gradual erosion.
Looking back in hindsite both Thursday and Friday were Sell the Hour One low days back to back as the market let off some steam after being excessively bullish in the Aberration on the Sell Mode.
I've set up some new parameters that I feel will alert me to when this occurs again. I've back tested them extensively and look forward to introducing the process right away.
Here are my closing comments from the Live Update Service.
"After the pre-market Jobs report came out the market got a bit wild moving lower to mentioned support near 1126.00 and then rallying back to the pivot line around 1134.
The official opening was -3.00 handles lower and prices moved lower from there. As prices pulled back I was looking for first support to come in around 1128.50 and gave buy signal with fills coming in around 1128.00 on an MFO signal. Prices attempted to move higher but gradually pulled back and hit our stop at 1125.75 for a -2.25 loss.
Our next attempt at getting long was after seeing a lower move, reflex bounce and support for an attempt to see if we had bottomed using a tight stop. Long at 1127.50 prices continued to weaken and we exited with a -1.25 loss at 1126.25.
We tried one more buy attempt at 1126.25 and was surprised to see the markets continued to slowly grind lower as we had expected 1126 would hold up being the pivot line for the Sell Mode. We got out with a -1.25 loss on the trade.
Later in the session as prices made a more complete washout at 1120.50 I had indicated on a message that support was strong there but we had no official posted trade. I had also indicated we would see 1123.50 as strong resistance and suggested a short there as an optional trade.
Prices moved up from the 1121.00 area where I had suggested a bottoming, hit 1123.75 on the high of that move and fell back to 1121.50 where I had suggested anyone following those 2 trade ideas could cover the short.
So on balance the official posted trades were down -4.75 and the last two suggestions realized an approximate +4.00 gain if taken."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today, as mentioned on the opening, could be a light volume day due to the U.S. Holiday today. The markets are open but many traders have left the building...like Elvis, so it could be light.
We will still attempt to trade early and see how things pan out.
The ideal setup today would be to look for a slightly lower opening and a slow double bottom near 1120-21.00 which could set up a nice bounce for today.
Now that bounce would not be expected to return us to strong bullish trading like we had recently but more of a "dead cat bounce" type setup (that is a rather odd term but many traders know what this means as CNBC often calls it this too).
If we get a higher opening and early rally attempt then we could see the rally from a direct move off the open and would look to trade that from the standpoint of the Hour One BreakOut... most likely selling an attempt to BreakOut.
The High 5 have been mega bearish the last 2 days with the TRIN going over 1.30 2 days in a row which fits our rule for looking at a repeat on the 3rd day as being "overcooked".
If this occurs it will back up our Headline Call for looking to buy the early drops.
If we hit the Hour One low again as the FIRST pivot hit then we can buy that dip in good confidence. If the High 5 are mega bearish again then give it some room below the Hour One low before buying...usually 2-3 points lower will give the nearly exact low.
Value Area: 1,120.40 - 1,129.40
This is a wide support/resistance area right at the double bottom test we are suggesting could occur and resistance up near our 1131.50 strong resistance area.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,117.00 - 1,118.00
I am not expecting they will get pushed through 1120 today but with the mega bearish readings and the selling enthusiasm if 1120 is stalling and High 5 are weak again we could get once small squash below that.
Ideally to be bullish we would see prices jump right off of that and get cooking to the upside.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,130.50 - 1,129.50
Here is that resistance area again showing up in the Sell Pivot target lending double resistance. Look for a short up here ON A LOWER OPENING AND EARLY RUN LOWER ONLY.
If they take off of the Globex current price of 1124.00 then we could plow through 1129.00 but there is strong resistance at 1131.50.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,124.60
Globex is trading right in this price zone on the overnight trade.
If the market is bullish then we are going to see this Pit Bull get challenged (like on Friday) but keep stubbornly holding support (like today if our call for bullishness is correct).
From that stubborn support will emerge a gradual and then explosive move back to the upside.
I am not sure the Sell Mode is done but if we keep stalling here at the Pit Bull, and it's adjusted 10 day MA daily prices, then we are going back into the Aberration phase above 1126.00 and most likely shoot up back towards 1143.00.
Pro Trader's Action
It's funny how the markets "appears" to be moving according to the legend of the Presidential adage that if the incumbent is showing vicory we see the market rally and if the contender is showing more strength then the markets move lower on "uncertainty".
This is not a political bias but it appears that the markets are tracking what is being reported as public opinion and bias on these debates.
It's still up in the air and these Prez election periods can get a little tense and emotional with all the squabbling about the "issues" floating around.
As mentioned last week, and for several years here in my newsletter, the real isssue that is secretly behind so much of the geopolitical events occuring over the last 3 years is that the world is RUNNING OUT OF OIL... World Oil is expected to hit its peak level of consumption around 2012 or sooner and begin a depletion cycle from that point on.
I have been mentioning this in my newsletter since its inception 2 years ago and now we are seeing the signs with these oil prices getting stuck up above 50$ bucks a barrel. Don't expect them to come down in price by much... if at all.
Anyone interested in the facts surrounding this can email me and I will be glad to forward some beginnig geological reports about this and information concerning geopolitical manipulations that are taking place around this event. It's my public service as part of my daily S&P500 trading advice and ideas. It is not meant as any kind of silly partisan political thing. Don't expect our politicians to admit this to us although "Peak Oil" as a topic is starting to leak out in the mainstream news a bit. We are all in this together as the world starts realizing this is coming.
Let's see if we can get long on an early drop today on the S&P500 and catch some upside bounce.
All the best of success today. Mohan
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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