ANA propõe “todos os investimentos necessários” para Portela chegar até 45 movimentos/hora

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Ertai,

Na minha intervenção aqui no Fórum procuro sempre, não só partilhar a minha opinião e análise pessoal, como disponibilizar research e informação, bem como artigos de opinião, de outras fontes, desde que ela seja identificada, de fontes fidedignas, com interesse, e no âmbito do forum.

O meu objectivo é garantir aos leitores do Fórum acesso rápido a informação actualizada e pertinente, sobre os titulos aqui discutidos, para dessa forma estarem em melhores condiçoes de tomarem as suas decisões de investimento pessoais.

Curiosamente o artigo que disponibilizei levantou bastante celuma pelo que o autor decidiu escrever novo artigo que aqui coloco:


PS: parabéns pela MACR, quais são os titulos que tem debaixo de olho actualmente?


More on ATI

Tim Goh

My article on ATI sure brought up a storm of discussion, both in e-mail feedback and on the Yahoo! board.

Let me sum up my response in a nutshell: I did not recommend shorting ATI. Heck, I did not even recommend staying away from ATI. What I did was report the news on ATI’s excellent quarter, and highlight a couple areas for investors to look at. Investment banks are falling over themselves to upgrade ATI, and I feel investors need both sides of the story – a balanced view. There is a huge difference between the headline of “ATI’s Success is Doomed” and my headline of “Is ATI’s Success Doomed?".

The goal of the article was to bring up areas of concern for readers to further investigate (an in-depth dissection of the company would take several pages, which is not the format of the Fool Take). If after reading through the areas of concern you eventually decide that ATI can overcome them, then more power to you – I will have accomplished my goal. If readers are more wary after reading the Take and doing their own due diligence, that’s fine too. As I mentioned earlier, the point is to provide both sides of the story and let investors decide for themselves.

Oh, and some people took pains to highlight that ATI has been doing well both in revenue and income. Yes I’m very aware that ATI has done superbly over the past two quarters. I acknowledged that at the beginning of the article, and also pointed out areas for optimism. However, my concerns are about future earnings, especially in the light of ATI sharply raising first quarter guidance.

Ok, now more on the three risks I brought up.

Many have said that the increase in accounts receivable is irrelevant. Right now, it is still very premature to decide if these numbers are condemning. All I said was that the numbers should be watched. As for the relevance of the numbers, put it this way: ATI thought it was significant enough to mention the increase and provide an explanation for them (about 5 minutes into the conference call). By doing so they pre-empted any questions about these numbers. Like I said, it is still early, but should increases in accounts receivable constantly outpace increase in sales, that is a recipe for disaster. Look at Oracle’s near collapse around 1990.

ATI’s past two quarters has shown it taking advantage of its recent success in head-to-head comparisons with Nvidia. They have executed well, no doubt about that. It is no coincidence that Nvidia has suffered during this period. As an ATI investor, you have to be aware of the risk of a reversal if Nvidia catches up. Yes, I am aware that ATI may currently do better on Game X or Game Y. So what? The concern I expressed was for the next generation of games (ie the next battlefield between ATI and Nvidia). Nvidia’s strong performance in Doom III is a turning point. The possibility that many future games license Doom III’s engine is very real, and that may be a catalyst (no pun intended) for Nvidia taking a temporary lead. Thus it is important for those interested in ATI to keep tabs on this.

There are some who said Half-Life is not based on an id Software engine. I was referring to the original Half-Life (do you see a “2″ following it in the article?). Check id Software’s website, heck call Valve and ask them if you like. The original HL was based on the Quake 1 engine, probably with some code from the Quake 2 engine. Half-Life 2 is a whole different ballgame. While the HL2 engine where ATI has an advantage may also be licensed out, I would think that the Doom III engine’s superior graphics and id’s pedigree will see Doom III ultimately having more licensees.

Last point about insider trading and management issues. Companies need good management (care to dispute this, anyone?). Should the insider trading charges be true, it means that the company’s management was not looking out for the best interests of shareholders. If you’re saying that management has been doing well anyway, consider the potential loss of some members of the board should convictions take place.

I think the market really shouldn’t perceive the battle between ATI and Nvidia as a zero-sum game. Each has their own advantages (ATI in DTV market, Nvidia with chipsets like nForce). It is true that they will continue leapfrogging each other in terms of graphics chip performance and fight over market share, but there is enough potential in the market for both companies to do well if they play to their strengths.

I hope this post clarifies some of the issues raised. If not, feel free to e-mail or comment.

timgoh@gmail.com

[Ertai]

Caro Alfred..

Agradeço o seu trabalho aqui no caldeirão ao colocar variadas noticias sobre variadas empresas..

Mas lá porque certas notícias são publicadas não quer dizer que tal corresponde à verdade, nem muito menos ao que se está a passar nos mercados.. daí por vezes ser melhor ter cuidado com estas.

Estou a referir-me a esta ultima notícia nesta thread..

A cotação da ATI não vai ser afectada pela "guerra" da concorrente Nvidia. Ambas são excelentes para negociar, e se uma revela bons resultados a outra vai atrás. As realidades de ambas as cotações são muito diferentes, pois na bolsa ambas as empresas são "amigas" mas no campo de chips gráficos são rivais.

Quanto ao Doom3, apesar de ser um importante "Benchmark", digamos que em muitos outros jogos DirectX a ATI ainda está à frente (3dMark Benchmarks igualmente)..
O facto de ter ganhado o concurso para o chip gráfico da XBOX 2 vai certamente ser um factor a ter em conta quando investimos na ATI..

Depois temos também o lançamento quase mensal de placas gráficas com 6 meses entre gerações.. as realidades de hoje podem ser completamente diferentes das de amanhã.

A notícia acaba por mostrar que o jornalista apenas marginalmente conheçe a "história por detrás dos bastidores", e o Título da notícia "Is ATI's Success Doomed?" parece mais que foi encomendado e "patrocinado" pela Nvidia..

E não quero estar aqui com favoritismos, pois afinal sou fã da Nvidia, lol

DISCLAIMER: Estou já fora do negócio da ATYT, pouco depois da abertura no dia dos earnings.. novas oportunidades virão para voltar a lucrar com a ATI..

[Alfred E. Neuman]

Is ATI's Success Doomed?

By Tim Goh
October 8, 2004

Computer graphics chip company ATI Technologies (Nasdaq: ATYT) followed last quarter's accomplishments with another stellar quarter. Year-over-year profit almost tripled in the fourth quarter, with net income of $61.2 million compared to $22.3 million a year ago. Fourth-quarter revenue was up by 50%, rising from $380.7 million to $572.2 million.

This was achieved with success across the board. All product areas grew: desktop discrete chip revenue soared 40%; notebook chip revenue climbed 20%; and handheld and digital television products showed a five-fold increase over last year.

ATI has navigated the phasing in of the next generation PCI-Express cards with minimal rise in inventories quarter over quarter. The company is well positioned to reap profits once PCI-Express hits the mainstream. And ATI is looking forward to royalties from its deal with Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) to produce graphics processors for the Xbox 2. The company is optimistic about the future, raising first quarter revenue guidance to $600-640 million.

So, with excellent back-to-back quarters and a rosy outlook, what's not to like?

Well, Foolish (that's a capital F) investors know there is more to investing than the income statement. This quarter's balance sheet shows a 55.9% year-over-year increase in accounts receivable, outpacing the 50% growth in revenue. ATI addressed this issue in the conference call, citing higher shipments toward the end of the quarter, and quoting a days sales outstanding figure at 50 days. These numbers bear watching in future quarters.

Bitter rival NVIDIA's (Nasdaq: NVDA) dominance in Doom III benchmarks is another area for concern. Why the emphasis on one game? Id Software's engines have a storied history of success, powering best-selling licensees like Half-Life and Medal of Honor: Allied Assault. The revolutionary Doom III engine is the most spectacular in the industry today -- other developers will be lining up to license its technology. If ATI has not caught up by then, it will find itself losing benchmarks on more games. The 40% increase in desktop discrete chip revenue was a large factor in revenue growth, and ATI will not grow as fast if it cedes market share to NVIDIA due to performance.

Lastly, ATI went through a boardroom shake-up earlier this year, and there are ongoing insider trading investigations. Those interested in ATI after the past record quarters may want to consider all these risks before taking the plunge.

[Ertai]

E sai um gráfico...

[Alfred E. Neuman]

@ 18,95 em pre market

fechou ontem @ 16,85

[Ertai-]

E pelos vistos a ATI volta a repetir a proeza!


ATI Reports Record Revenues of US $572.2 Million in Q4
MARKHAM, Ontario--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 7, 2004--

2004 Revenues Up 44.1% to $2.0 Billion

ATI Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: ATYT) (TSX: ATY) today announced its second consecutive record revenue quarter, driven by sales increases in both the personal computer and consumer product lines.

ATI reported revenues(1) of $572.2 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 (ended August 31, 2004), a 50.3% increase over the fourth quarter a year earlier. Gross margin declined 1.8 percentage points to 33.8% over the same period of the previous year as a result of costs associated with the ramp of a number of new desktop products. Net income(2) per share was $0.24 for the quarter compared to $0.09 last year. ATI's cash position increased $40.9 million during the quarter to $548.9 million as of August 31, 2004.

ATI's fiscal 2004 annual results also produced significant revenue and earnings growth over fiscal 2003. Revenues for the full 2004 fiscal year grew 44.1% to $2.0 billion. Net income for the year increased nearly six-fold to $0.80 per share from $0.14 per share in fiscal 2003.

"Our corporate strategy continues to produce returns," said David Orton, ATI's Chief Executive Officer. "Our PCI Express desktop product line-up is the most competitive product family on the market, resulting in tremendous customer acceptance. In addition, the growth rate of our digital consumer business continues to outpace the market, based on ATI's innovative products for use in cell phones and digital televisions."

Outlook

We expect our leadership in graphics and multimedia technologies for both digital consumer products and PCI Express-based PCs to continue driving growth for ATI in fiscal 2005. As a result, ATI currently expects revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2005 to be in the range of $600 to $640 million. Gross margin, as a percentage of revenues, is expected to be between 33 and 34%. Operating expenses in the first quarter (excluding the expensing of stock options) are expected to grow between 5 and 10% relative to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004. In accordance with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles, beginning with the first quarter of fiscal 2005, ATI will expense compensation costs associated with stock options granted to employees after September 1, 2002. The charge in the first quarter of fiscal 2005 will be approximately $7.0 million.

ATI continues to be optimistic about its outlook for fiscal 2005, but anticipates some seasonality, where the first quarter is strong, followed by a slightly weaker revenue and profit profile for the second and third quarters. The fourth quarter is expected to build off of the third quarter.

MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF INTERIM FINANCIAL RESULTS

In this Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A), ATI, we, us and our, mean ATI Technologies Inc. and its subsidiaries.

About forward-looking statements:

Forward-looking statements look into the future and provide an opinion as to the effect of certain events and trends on the business. Forward-looking statements may include words such as "plans," "intends," "anticipates," "should," "estimates," "expects," "believes," "indicates," "targeting," "suggests" and similar expressions.

This MD&A and other sections of this news release contain forward-looking statements about ATI's objectives, strategies, financial condition and results. These "forward-looking" statements are based on current expectations and entail various risks and uncertainties. Our actual results may materially differ from our expectations if known and unknown risks or uncertainties affect our business, or if our estimates or assumptions prove inaccurate. Therefore we cannot provide any assurance that forward-looking statements will materialize. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or any other reason. Additional information concerning risks and uncertainties affecting our business and other factors that could cause our financial results to fluctuate is contained in our filings with Canadian and U.S. securities regulatory authorities, including our 2003 Annual Information Form and Annual Report.

Any reference to "year-over-year" in this MD&A refers to a comparison of this year's fourth quarter results versus the fourth quarter of the prior year unless otherwise noted.

Financial Results Analysis

Revenues

Fourth quarter revenues of $572.2 million grew by 50.3% from $380.7 million in the same period a year ago. The gains in the fourth quarter were largely driven by revenue increases in all of our main business lines. Desktop discrete chip revenues grew about 40% as a result of PCI Express business with OEMs and expanded sales in the add-in-board (AIB) channel. Total notebook chip revenues (integrated and discrete) increased almost 20% resulting from market growth that was partially offset by market share declines in the notebook integrated market. Handset chip revenues more than doubled for a number of reasons -- increased demand from cell phone manufacturers, a growing number of design wins, a growing cell phone market overall, and the increasing proportion of the market claimed by camera phones. Our digital television revenues grew dramatically based on market growth and continued penetration of our products among top digital TV manufacturers.

Gross Margin

Our gross margin for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2004 was 33.8% -- down 1.8 percentage points from 35.6% in the same period a year ago. The margin for our desktop discrete products declined relative to the fourth quarter of the previous year primarily due to early production costs associated with the introduction and ramp of our new PCI Express products. Gross margin for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2003 also benefited from higher margins in desktop discrete. The overall margin decline of our PC products was slightly offset by increases in our consumer products, which have margins that are typically higher than our corporate average.

Our royalty income from Nintendo, and our non-recurring engineering revenues, are reported under "Other" in our segmented reporting. Please see Note 11 to our unaudited consolidated interim financial statements for further information on our segmented reporting.

Operating Expenses

Selling and marketing expenses increased by 10.6% year-over-year to $30.5 million. The increase in expenses related primarily to increased staff for sales and technical sales support, an increased investment in advertising designed to improve ATI's brand awareness and to create demand in the PC market, as well as increased marketing activities to support our brands, product launches, and participation in industry trade shows.

Administrative expenses were up 11.3% year-over-year to $11.7 million due to increased staffing levels to support a growing business, and incentive-based compensation.

Research and development expenses increased 25.8% year-over-year to $77.1 million. This increase was largely a result of additional headcount to support broader programs in growing business areas, and increased prototyping costs - primarily in the desktop, integrated and notebook business units. These efforts have led to a number of design wins which we believe will result in continued growth in our business. Higher costs associated with licensing fees also added to the increase in R&D.

Other Charges

We recorded other charges totaling $0.2 million in the fourth quarter. This compares favorably to other charges of $10.4 million for the fourth quarter last year. Last year's charges related largely to the settlement of patent litigation and restructuring charges related to the closure of our European R&D operations. Please see Note 8 to our unaudited consolidated interim financial statements for further information.

Total Operating Expenses

Our total operating expenses reflect the operating expenses detailed earlier, as well as amortization of intangible assets. For further information on the treatment of the amortization of intangible assets, please see Note 4 to our unaudited consolidated interim financial statements.

Interest and Other Income

Our interest and other income was $2.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2004, compared with $0.7 million for the comparable period in fiscal 2003. Interest and other income in 2004 was derived principally from interest on our higher cash balances.

Net Income

Net income almost tripled to $61.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2004 from $22.3 million in the same quarter last year as a result of the significant increase in sales.

[Ertai]

A ultima GAP foi dos ultimos Earnings.. se estes forem com surpresa idêntica à anterior.. seria de esperar outra gap...

Existem boas probabilidades, o meu "Know-Sider" diz-me que a nova geração de placas da ATI vendeu como pães quentes.. a questão é se eles fizeram mais dinheiro do que os analistas esperam..

Deixo já aqui o DISCLAIMER: Estou longo na ATYT

Saí da Macromedia com um lucro muito interessante e vou arriscar ficar dentro em dia de earnings..

Vamos ver se tenho uma alegria ou um susto com foi da última vez com a Nvidia..

Comps

[JAOR]

Update do gráfico, a cotação parece que vai fechar positiva hoje.. Amanhã demanhã temos os resultados..

Boas Ertai, tens alguma ideia do que possam ser??? caso sejam bem digeridos, aquele gap é uma atracção

Abraço e

Cmpts

[Ertai]

Update do gráfico, a cotação parece que vai fechar positiva hoje.. Amanhã demanhã temos os resultados..

[Ertai]

Para já a cotação "descansou", juntamente com várias techstocks, das ultimas subidas..

Entretanto já só temos esta 4ªfeira antes de serem revelados os resultados.. se o dia correr mal será um indicador de que os resultados dos earnings poderão ter corrido mal.

Entretanto só falta esperar, talvez começe a reagir amanhã ao facto de ter quebrado a resistência..

Fica aqui o gráfico:

[Ertai]

Boas, hoje para além de ter sido um óptimo dia para os mercados em geral, na ATI (concorrente da Nvidia) a cotação quebra finalmente uma LT que já tem vindo a desenhar desde o início do ano.

Para hoje deixa um bom sinal de entrada, mas o mais interessante é ver o presente aspecto técnico a dar provas de que os resultados nesta próxima 5ªfeira poderão dar surpresas positivas..

Existe sempre a hipótese de ficarmos de fora no dia dos earnings se não queremos assumir riscos relativamente a dados desconhecidos..

Para já fica aqui o gráfico, deixo mais comentários para depois..