Incêndios: Governo declara situação de alerta a partir de domingo

[mad cow bull]

Obrigado Alex01

[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish. Look to stay on the sell side of any early reflex rallies today. Sell Mode has kicked in and we should be headling much lower.

Thursday, September 23, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.10 Value Area
Range: 4.60 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,123.70 Pit Bull MA
High 1,122.50
Open 1,122.50
1,119.50-1,118.50 Sell Pivot
1,117.00
Close 1,112.90
Low 1,112.40
1,112.40
1,109.25-1,110.25 Buy Pivot

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, September 22, 2004:
1) B@1116.00/S@1116.00 ..Scratch...

2) B@1116.00/S@1115.25 or higher...-.75 or less .

There were no 2nd level trade opportunities today.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Thursday's Action.

Wednesday turned out to be a pretty bearish day as called for on our Headline Call. The difficulty with the trade on Wednesday was the rapid drop off of the open and the extreme bearish High 5. The Hour One Low came in at 1116.25 and prices just hovered around that area most of the day. Here are my Wrap up comments on our Live Update Service.

"Today we were looking for the overall mood to be bearish and the markets got hammered pretty hard.

The Hour One low was 1116.25 and we made 2 attempts to get long at that price for a scalp bounce. After the recent bullish run we expected some spring of early lows but there was none. The new Sell Mode we've been talking about has kicked in.

First trade stalled at 1116.00 area for quite some time without any sign of a bounce beyond 1116.75 so we got out flat.

On the second trade prices dropped lower and tested 1114.75 giving us a MFO (Market Force Oscillator) signal to get long again. This time we got long near the same price of 1116.00 and prices were able to push higher to 1117.50 but that was it.

We tightened stops and put out a message to get out as prices broke 1116.00 again on a 3rd attempt. Most covered above 1115.25 for a small .75 loss.

After that second trade I could see that either side would be a nervous ride to Nowhere serious so we stood aside. As expected prices pushed lower a bit to 1112.00 which was the price we gave earlier as strong support. The trade movement was done in herky jerky nervous style. Not of interest to us...better to avoid when like this."

Today's Call & Briefing:
On a flat to higher opening and an early rally we should continue to be selling off today. There is a good chance of this type of opening which after attempting to bounce some in response to the hammering on Wednesday we should continue lower towards 1110.00 and then moving towards the 1100.00 handle. Ultimately it now appears the new Sell Mode could carry us down towards the 1085 area before the weakness finds true support.

If we get a lower move off the opening and an early drop then we most likely will be setting up for a temporary washout low for today. The Sell Mode will still continue with lower levels getting reached.

RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If we do head lower first then watch for the Hour One low to find some support today and bounce a bit. We would look for prices 2-3 points below the BreakDown most likely for support IF the High 5 are bearish. On the charts we would look for a washout type move on the Trailblazer pattern with elongated spikes lower with higher volume.

On the Sell side (which we would prefer) the best setup would be slightly higher opening and early bounce. Then after an attempt at a BreakOut we could look to sell in that area. Watch for a Trailblazer Level 3 move up around a price area above the Hour One pivot. Use the numbers below to also compare to the Hour One pivot such as the top of the Value Area at 1117.00 which was big resistance yesterday.

Value Area: 1,112.40 - 1,117.00
Holding 1117.00 or just above and seeing prices fall back into the VA would be a Bearish move.

We saw a lot of resistance at 1117.00 yesterday as we sat in a trade at 1116.00 and just could not get any bounce at all going. All they could muster was 1117.50 and they fell right back.

So look for any BreakOut attempts above this to find resistance which could coordinate with the Sell Pivot target.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,109.25 - 1,110.25
We will be looking for a move down to this area today. Will the numbers find support here? Maybe, but I am expecting they will go lower in the early stages now of the Sell Mode.

1105.00 is support with the Stop/reverse pivot (-4.25). Watch out if we move below this as the 1100.00 handle could show up very quickly ...and lower.

Not expected for today but anytime.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,119.50 - 1,118.50
This is the area right above the top of the VA that can be used to coordinate an early short trade if we get up here. Watch the Hour One high and then see how it stacks up with the top of the VA and this zone.

Most likely we will go short in here.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,123.70
Once we blew through the Pit Bull as discussed on yesterday's briefing prices melted lower. It was to be expected after all the time spent on the bullish side of the 10 day moving average.

Usually we do not see as much time spent as we saw on this last cycle (bullish) without genuine underlying strength. Lot of it was just an artificially pumped up market to look good but now the true colors are coming out.

Pro Trader's Action
Without political bias, but just for the purpose of market statistics, the general understanding is that the market will be bullish if the incumbent is scheduled to win and more bearish if the challenger is favored.

This appears to be what the market is predicting and this may be due also to the misleading nature of the political polls taken.

One needs to consider that current polling methods are outdated in the sense that over 160 Million people use cell phones which cannot be polled. And the fact is that over 60% of those cell phone users are 18-25 year old voters who tend to vote democratic.

Again, without political bias, we need to consider these ideas and in light with what the market MAY be telling us in a Sell Mode and getting hammered as we roll into election time. We can use this valuable information to possibly stay on the right side of the market.

This time of the year in the 4th quarter of an election year can be a WILD CARD but keeping in touch with the underlying potential bullish or bearish bias can make our job easier.

Unless there is some dramatic bullish change let's plan on expecting underlying bearishness down possibly as far as the 1085 area before the smoke clears and we can bottom.

What would break that spell would be a sudden bullish turn around with strong, massive institutional buying. Indeed this may be building now but the question remains how deep they will go before the commercials step in. Indeed this could occur just in the nick of time to reflect bias towards the incumbent. If these statistics still have value then this year...2004...will be the year to really see if things have changed.

For today let's watch the opening and first run of the day to get our bearings for our strategy.

Good luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan