Fed deve ser mais branda na subida dos juros
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Fed May Slow Rate Increases as Job Growth Shrivels
Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A quarter-point increase in the Federal Reserve's benchmark U.S. interest rate tomorrow may be the last until after the presidential election because of an unexpected plunge in job creation, say a growing number of economists and former Fed officials.
``The Fed has to give pause at some point until it gets some greater clarity on the pace of economic growth,'' said Avery Shenfeld, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto, who predicts no change in rates next month. ``An accelerated rate hike schedule doesn't make sense.''
The bond market had its biggest weekly gain since January after the Labor Department said the economy added 32,000 jobs in July, less than one-seventh of the number forecast by many economists. While at least 21 of the 22 so-called primary dealers who trade bonds directly with the Fed say the central bank will raise the overnight lending rate between banks to 1.5 percent when Chairman Alan Greenspan meets with the Federal Open Market Committee tomorrow, the consensus for a September increase is unraveling.
Economists at a third of the primary dealers said the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates until after the Nov. 2 election between President George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts. As recently as a week ago, at least six primary dealers said the Fed would raise interest rates at each of the central bank's four remaining meetings this year.
Slowing Economy
Economists reduced their growth predictions in a separate Bloomberg monthly survey published today. The economy will probably grow at a 3.9 percent annual rate from July through September, slower than the 4.2 percent estimated last month, according to the median forecast of 54 economists.
The reduced forecasts follow a July 30 report showing gross domestic product expanded 3 percent in the second quarter, the lowest in more than a year, as consumer spending ebbed.
``The decline in hiring in June and July is totally unexpected, poorly understood and an ample reason for caution,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC., who predicts the Friday employment report will cause the Fed to leave rates unchanged at 1.25 percent tomorrow. Wrightson, a forecasting firm based in Jersey City, New Jersey, is not a primary dealer. ``The Fed has said repeatedly that policy is data-dependent, and this was one heck of a new set of data.''
Other economists said rates are too low to delay increases, particularly with inflation rising. Policy makers lowered rates to a 45-year low of 1 percent last year to keep the economy from sliding into deflation. They kept rates low for a year to promote job growth. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate by law -- to keep inflation and unemployment low.
`Problematic'
``Keeping the fed funds rate at current levels would risk a much more problematic rise in inflation and inflationary expectations down the road,'' said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, another primary dealer, in a note Friday night. ``Given the acceleration in inflation that has occurred already, the Fed is likely to move to at least a 2 percent fed funds rate later this year.''
Most other primary dealers agree. Friday's survey showed the bond firms' economists haven't changed their average forecast for the Fed's overnight lending rate to end the year at 2 percent. Several economists said there are now risks to their forecast and they might change if economic data deteriorates.
``The key to the path of Fed tightening relies on the next job report,'' David Resler, chief economist at primary dealer Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview.
`Daunting Challenge'
Inflation rose to 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended June, the third monthly increase. That's up from a 1.9 percent inflation rate for all of last year. Consumer prices are forecast to rise 2.7 percent for the whole year, the latest monthly Bloomberg survey showed.
``This is absolutely the most daunting kind of challenge that the committee has to face,'' said Laurence Meyer, a former Federal Reserve governor, who is now a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Greenspan, in congressional testimony July 20, said June's slump in consumer spending was due to a ``transitory'' surge in energy prices that cut disposable income and ``should prove short- lived.'' Since then, oil prices have risen, not abated. Crude oil futures prices this week reached $44.77 a barrel, the highest price since futures began trading in New York in 1983.
Transitory
``The market understands that the commitment is there to get back to a more normal rate next year,'' said Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University economist who is president and chief executive officer of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. business cycles. ``There is not any real question what they have to be doing for a considerable period of time -- they have to be raising rates.''
The FOMC still may create more flexibility for itself on the pace of those rate increases by changing the wording of its statement after tomorrow's meeting, economists and former Fed officials said.
``The most likely place for that language will be in what I call the snapshot paragraph, where you talk about the economy, where you talk about growth, where you talk about inflation, where you talk about labor markets -- each of those sentences will be revised,'' said Meyer, the former Fed governor.
Last year, the FOMC promised to keep rates low for a ``considerable period,'' then said in January it could be ``patient'' before raising rates. In May, the FOMC switched to say rate increases would come at a ``measured'' pace, following that in June with the first rate increase in four years.
``The `measured pace' does not commit them to a timetable,'' said Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at primary dealer Morgan Stanley & Co. in New York.
Patient
The Fed tomorrow may decide to return to language saying it can be ``patient'' about interest rate increases, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report.
``The back-to-back softer-than-expected payrolls, on top of the leveling of the manufacturing ISM survey in recent months, would imply yet another shift in Fed monetary strategy,'' wrote the Goldman economists, led by Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research in London. ``Now the Fed might be thinking more along the lines of `patience' instead of `measured.' ''
The slowdown, and how the Fed responds, heighten the risk for Bush, who is likely to enter November's election as the only president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs. The president's father, former President George H.W. Bush, lost the office in 1992 after one term and officials in his administration criticized Greenspan for not cutting rates fast enough after the 1990-91 recession.
Election
The economy has added 1.24 million jobs this year and is still 1.12 million below the total when the junior Bush took office in January 2001. A net 69,000 jobs have been added since an eight- month recession ended in November 2001, making it the worst jobs recovery in post-World War II history.
The median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Friday's report was that the economy created 240,000 jobs in July.
The economy is the biggest issue in this year's election, according to a Time Magazine poll published Saturday. Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for independent Ralph Nader, Time said.
Kerry said Friday the weaker-than-expected jobs report shows the economy is ``taking a U-turn'' for the worse. Bush said the data show ``our economy is continuing to move forward and it reminds us that we're in a changing economy.''
Bush's advisers including Treasury Secretary John Snow focused instead on a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent, the lowest since October 2001, from 5.6 percent in June. The Labor Department counts payroll jobs based on a survey of businesses and the unemployment rate based on a separate poll of households.
``The political calendar is really going to militate against the FOMC doing even small incremental hikes between now and election day in November'' if job growth remains sluggish, said Tom Schlesinger, executive director of the Financial Markets Center, an Philomont, Virginia-based independent research group that studies the Fed.
Following are the responses of the Wall Street economists
surveyed after Friday's jobs report. An asterisk signifies a
change from the previous survey on July 29.
Rate Change Year-End
Company Name Aug. 10 Sept. 21 Rate
ABN Amro S. Ricchiuto 0.25 0 2
Banc of America P. Kretzmer 0.25 0 2
Barclays Capital H. Willmore 0.25 0.25 2.5
Bear Stearns J. Ryding 0.25 0.25 2
BNP Paribas B. Fabbri 0.25 0.25 2.25*
CIBC World Mkts A. Shenfeld 0.25 0 1.75
Citigroup R. DiClemente 0.25 0.25 2
Countrywide J. Speakes 0.25 0 1.75*
CSFB J. Feldman 0.25 0 2
Daiwa M. Moran 0.25 0 1.75*
Deutsche Bank C. Leahey 0.25 0.25 2.25
Dresdner K. Logan N/A N/A N/A
Goldman Sachs W. Dudley 0.25 0.25 2.25
HSBC I. Morris 0.25 0 1.75
J.P. Morgan Chase D. Maki 0.25 0.25 2.25
Lehman Brothers J. Abate 0.25 0.25 2.25
Merrill Lynch D. Rosenberg 0.25 0.25 2*
Mizuho Securities G. Haberbush 0.25 Undecided 2-2.25
Morgan Stanley R. Berner 0.25 0.25 2
Nomura D. Resler 0.25 0.25 1.75*
RBS Greenwich S. Stanley 0.25 0.25 2.25
UBS Warburg J. O'Sullivan 0.25 0.25 2
Average 0.25 0.16 2.04
Median 0.25 0.25 2.00
High 0.25 0.25 2.50
Low 0.25 0 1.75
To contact the reporter on this story:
Andrew Ward in New York at award1@bloomberg.net
Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Kevin Miller in Washington at kmiller@bloomberg.net
``The Fed has to give pause at some point until it gets some greater clarity on the pace of economic growth,'' said Avery Shenfeld, a senior economist at CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto, who predicts no change in rates next month. ``An accelerated rate hike schedule doesn't make sense.''
The bond market had its biggest weekly gain since January after the Labor Department said the economy added 32,000 jobs in July, less than one-seventh of the number forecast by many economists. While at least 21 of the 22 so-called primary dealers who trade bonds directly with the Fed say the central bank will raise the overnight lending rate between banks to 1.5 percent when Chairman Alan Greenspan meets with the Federal Open Market Committee tomorrow, the consensus for a September increase is unraveling.
Economists at a third of the primary dealers said the Fed will refrain from raising interest rates until after the Nov. 2 election between President George W. Bush and Democrat John Kerry, a four-term senator from Massachusetts. As recently as a week ago, at least six primary dealers said the Fed would raise interest rates at each of the central bank's four remaining meetings this year.
Slowing Economy
Economists reduced their growth predictions in a separate Bloomberg monthly survey published today. The economy will probably grow at a 3.9 percent annual rate from July through September, slower than the 4.2 percent estimated last month, according to the median forecast of 54 economists.
The reduced forecasts follow a July 30 report showing gross domestic product expanded 3 percent in the second quarter, the lowest in more than a year, as consumer spending ebbed.
``The decline in hiring in June and July is totally unexpected, poorly understood and an ample reason for caution,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC., who predicts the Friday employment report will cause the Fed to leave rates unchanged at 1.25 percent tomorrow. Wrightson, a forecasting firm based in Jersey City, New Jersey, is not a primary dealer. ``The Fed has said repeatedly that policy is data-dependent, and this was one heck of a new set of data.''
Other economists said rates are too low to delay increases, particularly with inflation rising. Policy makers lowered rates to a 45-year low of 1 percent last year to keep the economy from sliding into deflation. They kept rates low for a year to promote job growth. The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate by law -- to keep inflation and unemployment low.
`Problematic'
``Keeping the fed funds rate at current levels would risk a much more problematic rise in inflation and inflationary expectations down the road,'' said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, another primary dealer, in a note Friday night. ``Given the acceleration in inflation that has occurred already, the Fed is likely to move to at least a 2 percent fed funds rate later this year.''
Most other primary dealers agree. Friday's survey showed the bond firms' economists haven't changed their average forecast for the Fed's overnight lending rate to end the year at 2 percent. Several economists said there are now risks to their forecast and they might change if economic data deteriorates.
``The key to the path of Fed tightening relies on the next job report,'' David Resler, chief economist at primary dealer Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, said in a telephone interview.
`Daunting Challenge'
Inflation rose to 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended June, the third monthly increase. That's up from a 1.9 percent inflation rate for all of last year. Consumer prices are forecast to rise 2.7 percent for the whole year, the latest monthly Bloomberg survey showed.
``This is absolutely the most daunting kind of challenge that the committee has to face,'' said Laurence Meyer, a former Federal Reserve governor, who is now a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Greenspan, in congressional testimony July 20, said June's slump in consumer spending was due to a ``transitory'' surge in energy prices that cut disposable income and ``should prove short- lived.'' Since then, oil prices have risen, not abated. Crude oil futures prices this week reached $44.77 a barrel, the highest price since futures began trading in New York in 1983.
Transitory
``The market understands that the commitment is there to get back to a more normal rate next year,'' said Martin Feldstein, a Harvard University economist who is president and chief executive officer of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. business cycles. ``There is not any real question what they have to be doing for a considerable period of time -- they have to be raising rates.''
The FOMC still may create more flexibility for itself on the pace of those rate increases by changing the wording of its statement after tomorrow's meeting, economists and former Fed officials said.
``The most likely place for that language will be in what I call the snapshot paragraph, where you talk about the economy, where you talk about growth, where you talk about inflation, where you talk about labor markets -- each of those sentences will be revised,'' said Meyer, the former Fed governor.
Last year, the FOMC promised to keep rates low for a ``considerable period,'' then said in January it could be ``patient'' before raising rates. In May, the FOMC switched to say rate increases would come at a ``measured'' pace, following that in June with the first rate increase in four years.
``The `measured pace' does not commit them to a timetable,'' said Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at primary dealer Morgan Stanley & Co. in New York.
Patient
The Fed tomorrow may decide to return to language saying it can be ``patient'' about interest rate increases, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report.
``The back-to-back softer-than-expected payrolls, on top of the leveling of the manufacturing ISM survey in recent months, would imply yet another shift in Fed monetary strategy,'' wrote the Goldman economists, led by Jim O'Neill, head of global economic research in London. ``Now the Fed might be thinking more along the lines of `patience' instead of `measured.' ''
The slowdown, and how the Fed responds, heighten the risk for Bush, who is likely to enter November's election as the only president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs. The president's father, former President George H.W. Bush, lost the office in 1992 after one term and officials in his administration criticized Greenspan for not cutting rates fast enough after the 1990-91 recession.
Election
The economy has added 1.24 million jobs this year and is still 1.12 million below the total when the junior Bush took office in January 2001. A net 69,000 jobs have been added since an eight- month recession ended in November 2001, making it the worst jobs recovery in post-World War II history.
The median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Friday's report was that the economy created 240,000 jobs in July.
The economy is the biggest issue in this year's election, according to a Time Magazine poll published Saturday. Kerry leads Bush 48 percent to 43 percent with 4 percent for independent Ralph Nader, Time said.
Kerry said Friday the weaker-than-expected jobs report shows the economy is ``taking a U-turn'' for the worse. Bush said the data show ``our economy is continuing to move forward and it reminds us that we're in a changing economy.''
Bush's advisers including Treasury Secretary John Snow focused instead on a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent, the lowest since October 2001, from 5.6 percent in June. The Labor Department counts payroll jobs based on a survey of businesses and the unemployment rate based on a separate poll of households.
``The political calendar is really going to militate against the FOMC doing even small incremental hikes between now and election day in November'' if job growth remains sluggish, said Tom Schlesinger, executive director of the Financial Markets Center, an Philomont, Virginia-based independent research group that studies the Fed.
Following are the responses of the Wall Street economists
surveyed after Friday's jobs report. An asterisk signifies a
change from the previous survey on July 29.
Rate Change Year-End
Company Name Aug. 10 Sept. 21 Rate
ABN Amro S. Ricchiuto 0.25 0 2
Banc of America P. Kretzmer 0.25 0 2
Barclays Capital H. Willmore 0.25 0.25 2.5
Bear Stearns J. Ryding 0.25 0.25 2
BNP Paribas B. Fabbri 0.25 0.25 2.25*
CIBC World Mkts A. Shenfeld 0.25 0 1.75
Citigroup R. DiClemente 0.25 0.25 2
Countrywide J. Speakes 0.25 0 1.75*
CSFB J. Feldman 0.25 0 2
Daiwa M. Moran 0.25 0 1.75*
Deutsche Bank C. Leahey 0.25 0.25 2.25
Dresdner K. Logan N/A N/A N/A
Goldman Sachs W. Dudley 0.25 0.25 2.25
HSBC I. Morris 0.25 0 1.75
J.P. Morgan Chase D. Maki 0.25 0.25 2.25
Lehman Brothers J. Abate 0.25 0.25 2.25
Merrill Lynch D. Rosenberg 0.25 0.25 2*
Mizuho Securities G. Haberbush 0.25 Undecided 2-2.25
Morgan Stanley R. Berner 0.25 0.25 2
Nomura D. Resler 0.25 0.25 1.75*
RBS Greenwich S. Stanley 0.25 0.25 2.25
UBS Warburg J. O'Sullivan 0.25 0.25 2
Average 0.25 0.16 2.04
Median 0.25 0.25 2.00
High 0.25 0.25 2.50
Low 0.25 0 1.75
To contact the reporter on this story:
Andrew Ward in New York at award1@bloomberg.net
Craig Torres in Washington at ctorres3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Kevin Miller in Washington at kmiller@bloomberg.net
-
MSM
Fed deve ser mais branda na subida dos juros
Fed deve ser mais branda na subida dos juros
Economistas reduzem previsões de crescimento para o PIB dos Estados Unidos
Os economistas reduziram as suas previsões de crescimento da economia norte-americana para o terceiro trimestre deste ano, devido ao menor consumo privado, depois do preço do petróleo atingir máximos históricos e do mercado de trabalho dar ainda sinais de fraqueza.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nuno Carregueiro
nc@mediafin.pt
Os economistas reduziram as suas previsões de crescimento da economia norte-americana para o terceiro trimestre deste ano, devido ao menor consumo privado, depois do preço do petróleo atingir máximos históricos e do mercado de trabalho dar ainda sinais de fraqueza.
Os 54 economistas consultados pela agência Bloomberg estimam que o Produto Interno Bruto dos Estados Unidos cresça, em média, 3,9% entre Julho e Setembro, abaixo dos 4,2% previstos no mês anterior.
Para a totalidade deste ano as previsões apontam para um crescimento económico de 4,4%, menos que os 4,5% previstos anteriormente.
No mês de Julho as empresas americanas criaram 32 mil novos postos de trabalho, o valor mais baixo do ano e que sinaliza a fraca recuperação do mercado de trabalho na maior economia do mundo.
Em conjunto com a escalada dos preços do petróleo nos mercados internacionais, o fraco mercado de trabalho está a travar o crescimento no consumo das famílias americanas, provocando um abrandamento no crescimento da maior economia do mundo.
O crescimento mais lento da economia já foi visível no segundo trimestre, com o PIB a progredir a uma taxa anual de 3%, contra os 4,5% verificados nos primeiros três meses do ano.
Estes factos poderão levar a Reserva Federal norte-americana a abrandar a subida dos juros, com vista a suportar o crescimento da economia. Antes os economistas estimavam que a instituição liderada por Alan Greenspan efectuasse uma subida de 0,25 pontos percentuais aos juros em todas as reuniões até ao final do ano.
Agora estimam que os juros, no final de Setembro, estarão nos 1,5%, pelo que acreditam que nas próximas duas reuniões (amanhã e 21 de Setembro) apenas por uma vez ocorrerão mexidas.
No entanto, amanhã os economistas estimam que Greenspan anuncie nova subida dos juros, de 1,25 para 1,5%, sendo mais provável que em Setembro o custo do dinheiro fique inalterado.
Já no final de 2004, segundo a média das estimativas nos economistas consultados pela Bloomberg, os juros deverão estar em 2%.
Economistas reduzem previsões de crescimento para o PIB dos Estados Unidos
Os economistas reduziram as suas previsões de crescimento da economia norte-americana para o terceiro trimestre deste ano, devido ao menor consumo privado, depois do preço do petróleo atingir máximos históricos e do mercado de trabalho dar ainda sinais de fraqueza.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nuno Carregueiro
nc@mediafin.pt
Os economistas reduziram as suas previsões de crescimento da economia norte-americana para o terceiro trimestre deste ano, devido ao menor consumo privado, depois do preço do petróleo atingir máximos históricos e do mercado de trabalho dar ainda sinais de fraqueza.
Os 54 economistas consultados pela agência Bloomberg estimam que o Produto Interno Bruto dos Estados Unidos cresça, em média, 3,9% entre Julho e Setembro, abaixo dos 4,2% previstos no mês anterior.
Para a totalidade deste ano as previsões apontam para um crescimento económico de 4,4%, menos que os 4,5% previstos anteriormente.
No mês de Julho as empresas americanas criaram 32 mil novos postos de trabalho, o valor mais baixo do ano e que sinaliza a fraca recuperação do mercado de trabalho na maior economia do mundo.
Em conjunto com a escalada dos preços do petróleo nos mercados internacionais, o fraco mercado de trabalho está a travar o crescimento no consumo das famílias americanas, provocando um abrandamento no crescimento da maior economia do mundo.
O crescimento mais lento da economia já foi visível no segundo trimestre, com o PIB a progredir a uma taxa anual de 3%, contra os 4,5% verificados nos primeiros três meses do ano.
Estes factos poderão levar a Reserva Federal norte-americana a abrandar a subida dos juros, com vista a suportar o crescimento da economia. Antes os economistas estimavam que a instituição liderada por Alan Greenspan efectuasse uma subida de 0,25 pontos percentuais aos juros em todas as reuniões até ao final do ano.
Agora estimam que os juros, no final de Setembro, estarão nos 1,5%, pelo que acreditam que nas próximas duas reuniões (amanhã e 21 de Setembro) apenas por uma vez ocorrerão mexidas.
No entanto, amanhã os economistas estimam que Greenspan anuncie nova subida dos juros, de 1,25 para 1,5%, sendo mais provável que em Setembro o custo do dinheiro fique inalterado.
Já no final de 2004, segundo a média das estimativas nos economistas consultados pela Bloomberg, os juros deverão estar em 2%.
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