Mohan 29/06/04
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Mohan 29/06/04
Market Force: Neutral. Market expected to turn up today off the early lows. Trade holding above 1134.00 keeps market in Limbo as Sell Mode is stalled once again.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, June 28, 2004:
1)S@1140.50/B@1136.50 +4.00 pts.
2)B@1137.00/S@1133.00 -4.00 pts.
TOTAL: BREAKEVEN
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's action. Or at least we hope we get some action today as the market may be in a bit of a LIMBO again hovering near 1134.00 and we got the Federal Reserve meeting starting adding to the limbo.
Are interest rates rising factored in to the markets price? You can never be sure and often there is talk that they ARE priced in and then traders see those higher numbers and KABLAM...down go the futures.
This action occured on Monday so maybe that WAS the pricing in. Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service.
"The opening pattern for going short panned out today as the market gapped up early by about +7 handles to 1142.00, tried to make a new high, and then pulled back the rest of the day.
We got short at on our signal at 1140.50 and posted advice to hold short looking for 1136-37 to come into play.
After the 1:30est time frame as suggested we started getting long, spike candles heading lower and begun to monitor support areas. After blowing through 1139.00 they started moving under pressure towards our goal of 1136-37 in moves away from the Trailblazer channel which often signals support.
We also had a High 5 that was not Mega Bearish or anything ...so we covered the short and reversed long.
We covered up the short at 1136.50 for a +4.00 profit and our long was entered at 1137.00. I tried to hold out with the long trade with our mental stop right around 1134.50. I gave it a bit of room below that but prices collapsed hard again hit our stop at 1133.00 for a -4.00 pt loss.
I think the trading days like these for me are one of the more frustrating breed. You have your plan pan out so nicely, you reverse at a spot where (from my experience on these particular type of Monday's) 75% of the time you will get a bounce...and the floor falls through.
Anyway, we didn't lose money on a winning strategy so breaking even for today was the least of 2 evils. The market ended up getting squashed into the close right near 1131.00 and in hindsite it would have been nice to just have held short...but we'll get em tomorrow. 4000 days left in our career."
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are in the Neutral Market Force today and will mostly be expecting a bounce off of an early lower price drop.
If we do get a flat to lower open and an early drop we will be focusing on how things look after the first hour of trading. There is a good chance that we will hit the Hour One low today as the first pivot and we will be looking for Trailblazer formations in that zone combined with the Buy Pivot target price zone and the -4.25 at 1123.50.
So if we get the lower opening we are going to be focusing on this 1123-28 price zone for a possible buy with the Hour One low coming in that range too.
If we get a flat to higher opening and an early run up in prices then we most likely will be in more of a Limbo price pattern today and may look to wait until 11:30est to examine any trade ideas.
Value Area: 1,133.70 - 1,142.70
Watch for rallies up to 1143.00 to feel some resistance as we do this range trading between 1132-1145.00 zone.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,127.75 - 1,128.75
Watch for a Trade at this pivot area if we get the Hour One low in this same area. Will depend on the open range too in the first 20 minutes of trading.
Watch 1123.50 the -4.25 stop/pivot for stronger support.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,139.25 - 1,138.25
No trade at this pivot but watch this area in relation to the Hour One BreakOut price. We are expecting today to bounce off any early lows but ultimately remain in Neutral with slight up bias going into the 4th of July Holiday weekend.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,134.90
Here we are back just below the Pit Bull. We did not get an outstanding rally when we Crossed over above the Pit Bull and now we want to see if we are going to confirm the Sell Mode and see prices move strongly lower below this number. I am getting the feeling from looking at the indicators that LIMBO is going to continue in this range trading zone mentioned above.
Pro Trader's Action
This week is expected to be a very light trading week. I am going to be looking for our regular TCF2004 trade setups but extra cautious not to jam any trades as there is a lot going on that could keep the market in suspense.
Will the Fed raise interest rates? Will the "handover of Iraq" stop the incessant internal attacks?
Can we finally get out from under some of that pressure and start seeing life be a bit more peaceful without all the Iraq terror drill?
These things will affect the markets. It also appears, at least temporarily, that we may be back to a more regular market flow now that some heat has been put on these riggers who were trying to prop the market up with their illegal strategies. At least at this point the market has a more fluid feel to it and there is more of an ebb and flow. So we shall see how this continues.
Good Luck with your trades today, look to get long if they press the downside on the early session, and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, June 28, 2004:
1)S@1140.50/B@1136.50 +4.00 pts.
2)B@1137.00/S@1133.00 -4.00 pts.
TOTAL: BREAKEVEN
Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's action. Or at least we hope we get some action today as the market may be in a bit of a LIMBO again hovering near 1134.00 and we got the Federal Reserve meeting starting adding to the limbo.
Are interest rates rising factored in to the markets price? You can never be sure and often there is talk that they ARE priced in and then traders see those higher numbers and KABLAM...down go the futures.
This action occured on Monday so maybe that WAS the pricing in. Here are my Wrap Up comments from our Live Update Service.
"The opening pattern for going short panned out today as the market gapped up early by about +7 handles to 1142.00, tried to make a new high, and then pulled back the rest of the day.
We got short at on our signal at 1140.50 and posted advice to hold short looking for 1136-37 to come into play.
After the 1:30est time frame as suggested we started getting long, spike candles heading lower and begun to monitor support areas. After blowing through 1139.00 they started moving under pressure towards our goal of 1136-37 in moves away from the Trailblazer channel which often signals support.
We also had a High 5 that was not Mega Bearish or anything ...so we covered the short and reversed long.
We covered up the short at 1136.50 for a +4.00 profit and our long was entered at 1137.00. I tried to hold out with the long trade with our mental stop right around 1134.50. I gave it a bit of room below that but prices collapsed hard again hit our stop at 1133.00 for a -4.00 pt loss.
I think the trading days like these for me are one of the more frustrating breed. You have your plan pan out so nicely, you reverse at a spot where (from my experience on these particular type of Monday's) 75% of the time you will get a bounce...and the floor falls through.
Anyway, we didn't lose money on a winning strategy so breaking even for today was the least of 2 evils. The market ended up getting squashed into the close right near 1131.00 and in hindsite it would have been nice to just have held short...but we'll get em tomorrow. 4000 days left in our career."
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are in the Neutral Market Force today and will mostly be expecting a bounce off of an early lower price drop.
If we do get a flat to lower open and an early drop we will be focusing on how things look after the first hour of trading. There is a good chance that we will hit the Hour One low today as the first pivot and we will be looking for Trailblazer formations in that zone combined with the Buy Pivot target price zone and the -4.25 at 1123.50.
So if we get the lower opening we are going to be focusing on this 1123-28 price zone for a possible buy with the Hour One low coming in that range too.
If we get a flat to higher opening and an early run up in prices then we most likely will be in more of a Limbo price pattern today and may look to wait until 11:30est to examine any trade ideas.
Value Area: 1,133.70 - 1,142.70
Watch for rallies up to 1143.00 to feel some resistance as we do this range trading between 1132-1145.00 zone.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,127.75 - 1,128.75
Watch for a Trade at this pivot area if we get the Hour One low in this same area. Will depend on the open range too in the first 20 minutes of trading.
Watch 1123.50 the -4.25 stop/pivot for stronger support.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,139.25 - 1,138.25
No trade at this pivot but watch this area in relation to the Hour One BreakOut price. We are expecting today to bounce off any early lows but ultimately remain in Neutral with slight up bias going into the 4th of July Holiday weekend.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,134.90
Here we are back just below the Pit Bull. We did not get an outstanding rally when we Crossed over above the Pit Bull and now we want to see if we are going to confirm the Sell Mode and see prices move strongly lower below this number. I am getting the feeling from looking at the indicators that LIMBO is going to continue in this range trading zone mentioned above.
Pro Trader's Action
This week is expected to be a very light trading week. I am going to be looking for our regular TCF2004 trade setups but extra cautious not to jam any trades as there is a lot going on that could keep the market in suspense.
Will the Fed raise interest rates? Will the "handover of Iraq" stop the incessant internal attacks?
Can we finally get out from under some of that pressure and start seeing life be a bit more peaceful without all the Iraq terror drill?
These things will affect the markets. It also appears, at least temporarily, that we may be back to a more regular market flow now that some heat has been put on these riggers who were trying to prop the market up with their illegal strategies. At least at this point the market has a more fluid feel to it and there is more of an ebb and flow. So we shall see how this continues.
Good Luck with your trades today, look to get long if they press the downside on the early session, and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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