Mohan 28/06/04 (depois de umas fériazitas)
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Mohan 28/06/04 (depois de umas fériazitas)
Market Force: Bearish with prices holding below 1135.00 / Neutral above 1135.00. Today is pivotal in seeing market return to full Sell Mode or continue the aberration holding above 1135.00. Continue to Sell rallies as we expect market to move lower.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, June 25, 2004:
S@1145.25/ B@1140.25 +5pts.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.
Some important announcements before we get started:
First, this is going to be a light trading week as we have the FOMC meeting interest rate announcements on Wednesday along with the purported "Handover of Iraq to the Iraq people" which could be another WILD CARD along with the FOMC meeting. So we will happily stand aside on Wednesday as is our tradition.
Friday there will be no Live Update Trading either as we are heading into the long Fourth of July Weekend and most of the larger traders, specialists and commercials will also be heading out early creating a light volume day. We always follow the lead of the big players on these type of days before holidays.
2nd: I have some AMAZING follow up information to the (now infamous) rigging in the S&P500 that has been going on. There is talk of the S&P500 being artifically held up since November of 2003.
Now for the "historians" of Mohan's work that have been carefully following how I outlined how our TCF2003 setups and methods started floundering in December of 2003 and my re-tooling of the methods to shore them up as best as I could in Mid January...this discussion is AMAZING as it shows the timing of the interference and how it correlates with our setups having problems. Add to that the wierd historic range shrinking and lack of volatility AT THOSE HIGHER PRICES ESTABLISHED up to that point and we have some important pieces of the puzzle.
The key now will be to see if we can get the clean Ebb and Flow of the markets as we used to get. Check it out at: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/macke ... 4_990.html
This is very, very important information that all of our subscribers should read when you get a chance.
OK, so here we go.
On Friday we got a nice combination of what I was looking for to pan out. First, we had the early run up in prices above 1142.00 with the High 5 appearing a bit bullish but more towards Neutral.
This was the pattern I talked about perpetuating the downside. We got the move back to the Hour One low after just barely tapping the BreakOut Hour One high. It was a slow erosion process that we identified on the way down on our Live Update Service.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the action on Friday.
"In the Morning Call briefing today I had talked about 2 distinct market setups that I had expected one of to pan out.
My main thought was that we were going to run up a bit after the open, miss hitting the Hour One High and then fall back and hit the Hour One low as the first pivot of the day.
The key difficulty was to determine if that Hour One pivot was going to sell off strongly (which was my first choice) or bounce off of that and settle flat on the opening price.
Well, fortunately they ran up and just missed punching through the BreakOut High first at 1145.75 because we needed that room to get some points down to the mystery Hour One low.
I put out a Sell signal just 2 ticks from the high of the day and we covered em up right at the Hour One low at 1140.25 for a +5pts gain.
After we got out they bounced a few points and the slow erosion continued. I had mentioned on the last post after we got out that I suspected we would go down to 1138.00.
After they spiked prices down there (when the 100 day MA was taken out decisively near 1141.00) prices stalled around until (get this) 5 minutes after the Dow closed....then they reamed em down to 1133 half.
There are a lot of shenanigan plays that go on now a days in these final, final minutes which are obviously very hard to catch. Anyway, I was more than happy to be out earlier with 5 pts. profit and off to a great start on the weekend."
Today's Call & Briefing:
This week is going to be very interesting as we have the Sell Mode reasserting itself after a WEAK attempt to move into an aberration and press higher. The market could not even make it to 1150.00 before falling back to our old friend 1132-34 price zone which is where the aberration started from. This suggests weakness.
We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (starting Tuesday with announcements on interest rates on Wednesday) and the purported "Handover of Iraq" which should be interesting. Not sure how these events will be affecting the Sell Mode/Aberration Limbo we have been in.
Just be aware that Thursday could also be a very LIMBO type day and we may stand aside that day too.
It is important to remember that in our TCF 2004 system I am making trading recommendations based on exact, crystal clear readings I am getting on my Market Force indicators. These indicators tell me what type of day it should be in the market most likely.
I then wait for the opening and early market directional moves to give me more hints as to the confirmation of the Market Force indicators or whether we will be fading them based on price action and the High Five along with the rest of the tape.
To do this effectively and with the most saftely possible we want FULL VOLUME AND FULL PARTICIPATION in the markets of the major players which include the floor trading community, specialists, commercials, institutional players and of course the public.
We don't REQUIRE them all to be involved but the "more the merrier". When they are standing aside for whatever reason that is a good consideration that we should be doing the same.
It is often very difficult for beginning traders or amateurs to understand this. Usually their emotions about "having to trade" cloud their vision about such things. The truth is however that our system and most any system is going to function best with the full participation of the markets players.
For today we ARE expecting full participation and on an early run up in the markets we are expecting CONTINUED EROSION to lower price levels.
However, we are most likely going to be waiting for the MID MORNING SESSION TO TRADE like we did last week on Thursday. I cannot be exactly sure of this however as there is a very good chance that an early pop up in the morning is going to be sold off quickly and we will move towards the Hour One low as the first pivot hit after the first hour is complete.
So for today: Watch for a higher opening and an early run up to be bearish for today. We would expect that the first Hour One pivot hit will be the lower BreakDown price so there is a possibility of getting a short on just after the first hour IF THE HIGH FIVE ARE NEUTRAL TO BEARISH.
If the High 5 are BULLISH or Bullish/Neutral then we will be watching most likely up until 12:00est for more price information and High 5 tell tale signs before getting short.
The art of trading today will be in determining what the condition of the High 5 and whether to short early for a run lower right after the first hour to find support or for a slow erosion drop LATER similar to what occured on Friday's action.
Value Area: 1,134.00 - 1,142.30
Watch for prices to hold below 1142.30 for the continuation of the Bearish Sell Mode.
From the overnight action it appears we may open right in the middle of this Value Area and we will see the mystery continue to unfold as to whether the market will trade in normal ebb and flow of the Market Force underlying short term indicators or be stalled in Limbo by ...well, check out the link I gave you above and you will understand.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,130.75 - 1,131.75
There is a good chance of seeing support come in here on a LOWER OPENING and early lower drop. If this occurs then wait for the first hour to finish and we will look to compare this to the Hour One Low BreakDown for a possible long trade.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,142.75 - 1,141.75
Right up here at the top of the Value Area and Sell Pivot target lurks this double resistance at the 1142.00 area.
Let's see if they hold em back or we see the stop/pivot +4.25 at 1147.00 get tested.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,134.30
We are closing right on the Pit Bull and this intensifies the mystery of whether we will be heading lower (expected) or continuing in the aberration on the Sell Mode and moving towards 1165.00 as our first goal up (iffy).
Punching lower through the Pit Bull and HOLDING BELOW THE PIT BULL is going to continue the downward move.
They smoked em down here on Friday after stalling at the Hour One low with some marvelous spikes down...huge leveling down. It was almost like Ol' Igor got a call from the Feds or something telling him to cool it....for now. LOL
Pro Trader's Action
This has been a longer than normal briefing today due to the large amount of information I had for you.
Today is very simple though. We are looking for the continuation of the erosion to lower price levels either earlier for support to come in below Friday's lows or for prices to hang up near the highs to sell off mid session like Friday.
There is an outside chance we could have a BreakOut Buy cooking today but I would rather expect that any rallies are going to occur off of EARLY LOWS and will be effective only in bringing the market out of a deep hole earlier.
Good Luck in your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, June 25, 2004:
S@1145.25/ B@1140.25 +5pts.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.
Some important announcements before we get started:
First, this is going to be a light trading week as we have the FOMC meeting interest rate announcements on Wednesday along with the purported "Handover of Iraq to the Iraq people" which could be another WILD CARD along with the FOMC meeting. So we will happily stand aside on Wednesday as is our tradition.
Friday there will be no Live Update Trading either as we are heading into the long Fourth of July Weekend and most of the larger traders, specialists and commercials will also be heading out early creating a light volume day. We always follow the lead of the big players on these type of days before holidays.
2nd: I have some AMAZING follow up information to the (now infamous) rigging in the S&P500 that has been going on. There is talk of the S&P500 being artifically held up since November of 2003.
Now for the "historians" of Mohan's work that have been carefully following how I outlined how our TCF2003 setups and methods started floundering in December of 2003 and my re-tooling of the methods to shore them up as best as I could in Mid January...this discussion is AMAZING as it shows the timing of the interference and how it correlates with our setups having problems. Add to that the wierd historic range shrinking and lack of volatility AT THOSE HIGHER PRICES ESTABLISHED up to that point and we have some important pieces of the puzzle.
The key now will be to see if we can get the clean Ebb and Flow of the markets as we used to get. Check it out at: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/macke ... 4_990.html
This is very, very important information that all of our subscribers should read when you get a chance.
OK, so here we go.
On Friday we got a nice combination of what I was looking for to pan out. First, we had the early run up in prices above 1142.00 with the High 5 appearing a bit bullish but more towards Neutral.
This was the pattern I talked about perpetuating the downside. We got the move back to the Hour One low after just barely tapping the BreakOut Hour One high. It was a slow erosion process that we identified on the way down on our Live Update Service.
Here are my Wrap Up comments for the action on Friday.
"In the Morning Call briefing today I had talked about 2 distinct market setups that I had expected one of to pan out.
My main thought was that we were going to run up a bit after the open, miss hitting the Hour One High and then fall back and hit the Hour One low as the first pivot of the day.
The key difficulty was to determine if that Hour One pivot was going to sell off strongly (which was my first choice) or bounce off of that and settle flat on the opening price.
Well, fortunately they ran up and just missed punching through the BreakOut High first at 1145.75 because we needed that room to get some points down to the mystery Hour One low.
I put out a Sell signal just 2 ticks from the high of the day and we covered em up right at the Hour One low at 1140.25 for a +5pts gain.
After we got out they bounced a few points and the slow erosion continued. I had mentioned on the last post after we got out that I suspected we would go down to 1138.00.
After they spiked prices down there (when the 100 day MA was taken out decisively near 1141.00) prices stalled around until (get this) 5 minutes after the Dow closed....then they reamed em down to 1133 half.
There are a lot of shenanigan plays that go on now a days in these final, final minutes which are obviously very hard to catch. Anyway, I was more than happy to be out earlier with 5 pts. profit and off to a great start on the weekend."
Today's Call & Briefing:
This week is going to be very interesting as we have the Sell Mode reasserting itself after a WEAK attempt to move into an aberration and press higher. The market could not even make it to 1150.00 before falling back to our old friend 1132-34 price zone which is where the aberration started from. This suggests weakness.
We have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday (starting Tuesday with announcements on interest rates on Wednesday) and the purported "Handover of Iraq" which should be interesting. Not sure how these events will be affecting the Sell Mode/Aberration Limbo we have been in.
Just be aware that Thursday could also be a very LIMBO type day and we may stand aside that day too.
It is important to remember that in our TCF 2004 system I am making trading recommendations based on exact, crystal clear readings I am getting on my Market Force indicators. These indicators tell me what type of day it should be in the market most likely.
I then wait for the opening and early market directional moves to give me more hints as to the confirmation of the Market Force indicators or whether we will be fading them based on price action and the High Five along with the rest of the tape.
To do this effectively and with the most saftely possible we want FULL VOLUME AND FULL PARTICIPATION in the markets of the major players which include the floor trading community, specialists, commercials, institutional players and of course the public.
We don't REQUIRE them all to be involved but the "more the merrier". When they are standing aside for whatever reason that is a good consideration that we should be doing the same.
It is often very difficult for beginning traders or amateurs to understand this. Usually their emotions about "having to trade" cloud their vision about such things. The truth is however that our system and most any system is going to function best with the full participation of the markets players.
For today we ARE expecting full participation and on an early run up in the markets we are expecting CONTINUED EROSION to lower price levels.
However, we are most likely going to be waiting for the MID MORNING SESSION TO TRADE like we did last week on Thursday. I cannot be exactly sure of this however as there is a very good chance that an early pop up in the morning is going to be sold off quickly and we will move towards the Hour One low as the first pivot hit after the first hour is complete.
So for today: Watch for a higher opening and an early run up to be bearish for today. We would expect that the first Hour One pivot hit will be the lower BreakDown price so there is a possibility of getting a short on just after the first hour IF THE HIGH FIVE ARE NEUTRAL TO BEARISH.
If the High 5 are BULLISH or Bullish/Neutral then we will be watching most likely up until 12:00est for more price information and High 5 tell tale signs before getting short.
The art of trading today will be in determining what the condition of the High 5 and whether to short early for a run lower right after the first hour to find support or for a slow erosion drop LATER similar to what occured on Friday's action.
Value Area: 1,134.00 - 1,142.30
Watch for prices to hold below 1142.30 for the continuation of the Bearish Sell Mode.
From the overnight action it appears we may open right in the middle of this Value Area and we will see the mystery continue to unfold as to whether the market will trade in normal ebb and flow of the Market Force underlying short term indicators or be stalled in Limbo by ...well, check out the link I gave you above and you will understand.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,130.75 - 1,131.75
There is a good chance of seeing support come in here on a LOWER OPENING and early lower drop. If this occurs then wait for the first hour to finish and we will look to compare this to the Hour One Low BreakDown for a possible long trade.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,142.75 - 1,141.75
Right up here at the top of the Value Area and Sell Pivot target lurks this double resistance at the 1142.00 area.
Let's see if they hold em back or we see the stop/pivot +4.25 at 1147.00 get tested.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,134.30
We are closing right on the Pit Bull and this intensifies the mystery of whether we will be heading lower (expected) or continuing in the aberration on the Sell Mode and moving towards 1165.00 as our first goal up (iffy).
Punching lower through the Pit Bull and HOLDING BELOW THE PIT BULL is going to continue the downward move.
They smoked em down here on Friday after stalling at the Hour One low with some marvelous spikes down...huge leveling down. It was almost like Ol' Igor got a call from the Feds or something telling him to cool it....for now. LOL
Pro Trader's Action
This has been a longer than normal briefing today due to the large amount of information I had for you.
Today is very simple though. We are looking for the continuation of the erosion to lower price levels either earlier for support to come in below Friday's lows or for prices to hang up near the highs to sell off mid session like Friday.
There is an outside chance we could have a BreakOut Buy cooking today but I would rather expect that any rallies are going to occur off of EARLY LOWS and will be effective only in bringing the market out of a deep hole earlier.
Good Luck in your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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