Taxas de juro vão subir em Junho nos EUA
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Headline Disappointment'
Yesterday's employment report left intact expectations the Federal Reserve will raise its target interest rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, this month, while it wasn't enough to boost expectations for a larger, half-point cut, said traders.
``There's a little headline disappointment -- the numbers aren't strong enough to revise expectations to 50 basis points for June,'' said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary currency trader in New York at WestLB AG, Germany's third-biggest state-owned bank by assets. ``That would have got the dollar really moving.''
In the 20 minutes after the report, the U.S. currency first rose as high as 112 yen and then fell as low as 110.23 as some traders sold the dollar on disappointment job creation wasn't stronger. The dollar first advanced to $1.2140 per euro, then sold off to as weak as $1.2278 in the same time span.
``I'm bullish on the euro next week,'' said Richard Franulovich, a currency strategist in New York at Westpac Banking Corp. A level of $1.2280 is a ``key resistance level'' for the euro the past month, he said.
July Futures
U.S. Treasuries fell yesterday as some traders said the job gains may signal the Fed has to raise rates at a faster pace than expected previously. Morgan Stanley yesterday forecast the Fed would raise rates four times this year to 2 percent, a change from its prior call of three boosts to 1.75 percent.
July federal-funds futures indicated traders see a 100 percent chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's June 29-30 meeting. The contract yielded 1.27 percent, little changed from before the employment data. The December contract yields 2.195 percent.
The labor data ``should be a bit of a positive,'' said Steven Englander, chief currency strategist in New York at Barclays Capital Inc. It shows ``there's momentum there'' in terms of job growth. ``We're still dollar-positive,'' he said, predicting $1.10 per euro within six months.
A Fed rate boost can help the dollar by making U.S. deposits more attractive relative to Europe, where the central bank's benchmark rate is 2 percent.
April, March Data
The dollar soared 1.7 percent against the euro and 2.2 percent versus the yen on May 7, when figures showed the economy added 288,000 jobs in April, more than analysts had forecast.
The U.S. currency had a 1.8 percent gain against the euro and rose 0.8 percent compared with the yen on April 2, when a report showed the economy created more jobs in March than economists had predicted.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse First Boston this week said China may raise rates as soon as July. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.6 percent this week, further damping demand for the yen.
``The China interest-rate story just won't die; it's negative for the yen,'' said Toshi Honda, a currency strategist in London ay Mizuho Corporate Bank.
China's economy grew at a 9.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter. The government has clamped down on investment in industries such as steel, cement and real estate that it blames for power and raw-materials shortages and for rising inflation.
June 5 (Bloomberg
Yesterday's employment report left intact expectations the Federal Reserve will raise its target interest rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, this month, while it wasn't enough to boost expectations for a larger, half-point cut, said traders.
``There's a little headline disappointment -- the numbers aren't strong enough to revise expectations to 50 basis points for June,'' said Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary currency trader in New York at WestLB AG, Germany's third-biggest state-owned bank by assets. ``That would have got the dollar really moving.''
In the 20 minutes after the report, the U.S. currency first rose as high as 112 yen and then fell as low as 110.23 as some traders sold the dollar on disappointment job creation wasn't stronger. The dollar first advanced to $1.2140 per euro, then sold off to as weak as $1.2278 in the same time span.
``I'm bullish on the euro next week,'' said Richard Franulovich, a currency strategist in New York at Westpac Banking Corp. A level of $1.2280 is a ``key resistance level'' for the euro the past month, he said.
July Futures
U.S. Treasuries fell yesterday as some traders said the job gains may signal the Fed has to raise rates at a faster pace than expected previously. Morgan Stanley yesterday forecast the Fed would raise rates four times this year to 2 percent, a change from its prior call of three boosts to 1.75 percent.
July federal-funds futures indicated traders see a 100 percent chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's June 29-30 meeting. The contract yielded 1.27 percent, little changed from before the employment data. The December contract yields 2.195 percent.
The labor data ``should be a bit of a positive,'' said Steven Englander, chief currency strategist in New York at Barclays Capital Inc. It shows ``there's momentum there'' in terms of job growth. ``We're still dollar-positive,'' he said, predicting $1.10 per euro within six months.
A Fed rate boost can help the dollar by making U.S. deposits more attractive relative to Europe, where the central bank's benchmark rate is 2 percent.
April, March Data
The dollar soared 1.7 percent against the euro and 2.2 percent versus the yen on May 7, when figures showed the economy added 288,000 jobs in April, more than analysts had forecast.
The U.S. currency had a 1.8 percent gain against the euro and rose 0.8 percent compared with the yen on April 2, when a report showed the economy created more jobs in March than economists had predicted.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse First Boston this week said China may raise rates as soon as July. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.6 percent this week, further damping demand for the yen.
``The China interest-rate story just won't die; it's negative for the yen,'' said Toshi Honda, a currency strategist in London ay Mizuho Corporate Bank.
China's economy grew at a 9.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter. The government has clamped down on investment in industries such as steel, cement and real estate that it blames for power and raw-materials shortages and for rising inflation.
June 5 (Bloomberg
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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their biggest gains of the week Friday after the Labor Department said the economy added 248,000 jobs last month. Economists estimated 225,000 new jobs, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg poll. The workforce has increased by 1.2 million this year and has recouped all the jobs lost in the aftermath of the recession.
The Federal Reserve may look at the pace of job growth when deciding on interest-rate policy at its June 30 meeting. About half of the 119 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to raise its benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.
Stocks may rise even with a Fed rate increase imminent. ``A strong economy means earnings will grow, which is good for stocks further down the line,'' said Benedict P. Willis III, an independent broker at the New York Stock Exchange.
June 5 (Bloomberg)
The Federal Reserve may look at the pace of job growth when deciding on interest-rate policy at its June 30 meeting. About half of the 119 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to raise its benchmark overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.
Stocks may rise even with a Fed rate increase imminent. ``A strong economy means earnings will grow, which is good for stocks further down the line,'' said Benedict P. Willis III, an independent broker at the New York Stock Exchange.
June 5 (Bloomberg)
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Taxas de juro vão subir em Junho nos EUA
Taxas de juro vão subir em Junho nos EUA
[ 2004/06/04 | 19:48 ] Editorial
Links relacionados
Economia norte-americana criou 248 mil empregos em Maio A Reserva Federal norte-americana vai subir as taxas de juro na próxima reunião que terá lugar nos próximos dias 29 e 30 de Junho, afirmaram todos os 22 analistas contactados pela Reuters.
Depois de hoje ter sido divulgado um forte crescimento no mercado de trabalho, os especialistas alteraram a sua opinião e agora todos defendem que o preço do dinheiro vai mesmo subir já este mês, para 1,25% face aos actuais 1%.
[ 2004/06/04 | 19:48 ] Editorial
Links relacionados
Economia norte-americana criou 248 mil empregos em Maio A Reserva Federal norte-americana vai subir as taxas de juro na próxima reunião que terá lugar nos próximos dias 29 e 30 de Junho, afirmaram todos os 22 analistas contactados pela Reuters.
Depois de hoje ter sido divulgado um forte crescimento no mercado de trabalho, os especialistas alteraram a sua opinião e agora todos defendem que o preço do dinheiro vai mesmo subir já este mês, para 1,25% face aos actuais 1%.
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
- Localização: 4
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