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[Dwer]

Market Force: Bearish. On a higher opening and early rally in prices look to stay on the Sell side of the market today.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, May 21, 2004:
No Headline Call on Friday therefore there were no Trade Recommendations.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.

We did not offer a Headline Call on Friday and therefore there were no trade recommendations.

The market opened up about +3 points higher and sold off to the 1090.00 area, found support and pushed up within one tick of the 1100.00 handle. Shortly after they fell back towards the 1090.00 support and pushed a bit higher into the close.

It was another See Saw type trading day that duplicated Thursday's action in many ways.

The market has had time to give us an "Opening Day" bullish BreakOut to the upside and simpy has not done it. The prices have been relatively range bound and the overall impression is more weakness to set in which is what we are expecting for today. Here's the scoop on what my 18 proprietary indicators are telling me.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for Bearishness on an early higher opening and early push up in prices.

This latest testing of the lower 1090 zone and the attempts to move through 1100.00 handle are plain and simple showing further signs of weakness.

My Market Force indicators are suggesting today that we are going to get some more serious weakness IF we get a higher opening and early rally in prices.

Usually Monday's are the most bullish day of the week and what I think could happen today is we could start out like that only to be very dissappointed into the close as prices move lower.

The low of last week was 1078.25 and we could revisit that number this week if our Market Force call for today is correct and maybe even today if things get really heavy.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR TODAY: If we get a Higher Opening and an early push up watch for the BreakOut Hour One high to attempt to move higher and "hang up" near the highs. Later in the session I would expect weakness to come in IF the High 5 are not mega bullish or anything.

If we open lower and show weakness right from the opening then there is a good chance we could get hammered lower. We would have to take a close look at the Trailblazer chart patterns and the way things look after the first hour of trading with the High 5, the tape and the chart formations.

The overall expectation is for weakness to kick in on a flat to higher opening and early attempt to rally.

IF the High 5 do go Mega Bullish and the Dow is only up +50 or Less after the first hour is finished BUT THE NAZ(our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) is up +15 or more with TRIN below .80 or less we could get a strong BreakOut to the upside.

Today appears we are going to get a BIG MOVE one way or the other and the DOWNSIDE IS FAVORED from what the indicators are showing me.

Value Area: 1,090.50 - 1,095.10
If we cannot hold above 1089-1090.00 which is a number we have been discussing for the last few sessions as support/resistance then we are moving lower.

This will be the first sign of weakness...failure to hold above 1089.00. Next, compare that number with the OPENING PRICE. Holding below the opening price today will especially be significant for the bearish side.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,087.75 - 1,088.75
No trade at this target but watch for support here initially that FAILS later in the session. Then watch the -4.25 stop/pivot price below that at 1083.50 to be support. Not holding 83.50 should run em down to test last weeks low at 1078.25 which is quite possible if things are weak today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,098.50 - 1,097.50
On the Hour One BreakOut high today compare that with this number and see how that stacks up with the +4.25 stop/pivot also at 1102.75.

If we try and push up to these numbers and the BreakOut is in this same zone of 1098.50-1102.75 then we should have a good idea of where to get short after prices hang up for some time.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,090.80
The Pit Bull has now adjusted to be right at this crucial point of support/resistance.

Trading below this price should send em lower and above will continue the range bound pattern.

The market has been looking for a reason to BreakOut to the upside the last 4-5 sessions and has FAILED to do so. That is a sign of weakness and we have to recongnize that.

If we could get some good news about SOMETHING...ANYTHING... going then the market would love to have a reason to rally. The Iraq news dominated drill just keeps pounding the rallies as many institutional traders are nervous to get long in here beyond their underlying long positions.

Pro Trader's Action
We have been calling the Market rightfully a WILD CARD the last few sessions and this has proven to be true.

Now we are back after the Option Expirations day which gave us more of the same action.

Today is expected to be more decidedly BEARISH if we get a higher opening and early rally.

Let's see what occurs as we get the week going.

Another reminder: We will not be offering a Headline Call or making trade recommendations on Friday as it will be a low volume day as the larger traders head out for the Memorial Day weekend. We like to follow their lead on these holiday weekends so we will also not trade that day.

Look forward to seeing you in the action.