José Luís Carneiro considerado o melhor líder para o PS

[Pata-Hari]

Jotabil, fiz um comentário esta manhã, com o gráfico actualizado, que não se alterou.

Concordo com a análise do MA e com os teus comentários a ela. Acho que ele fundamenta e dá argumentos a ter em conta. Aliás, neste caso com claramente maior sucesso que os meus.

Quanto às médias moveis... eu acho que são um indicador de tendência como outros.. não acho que sejam valores a ter em mente diáriamente, mas é o meu approach e a minha opinião . É um indicador de tendência, é uma média. Nada de mais. Diz-me o que eu tb posso ver a olho nú.

[jotabil]

Boa noite marrequinha



sobre a pt


-Li com atenção o que o marco antónio expressa sobre a evolução da cotação...Não faço qualquer comentário sobre o que diz.....parece-me logico e fundado.....


-Qual a tua opinião ....ou se já tiveres comentários actualizados e graficos ...dá-me o endereço.



- Consideras os sinais das MM para a eventual mudança de tendência?
......e sendo assim ...qual é a mais significativa......a MM20, a MM50...ou a MM200?.....e quais os sinais indicadores....


bem ...muita pergunta.....mas uma imagem serve mais do que muitas palavras.....ao contrario do que diz o rui veloso.....


cumps..

[Pata-Hari]

Tem umas coisas com piada, a começar pelo primeiro comentário. Não é bullish, aviso já...

...............................................

Walker Market Letter

January 8th, 2003

http://www.LowRisk.com

...............................................


Apparently I struck a chord with some of my comments in the
12/19 Walker Market Letter. Among others, I was quoted by
ABCnews.com, Forbes.com, and Yahoo.com news.

This is the part they quoted... I was writing about all the
bullishness *last* January:

"Yup, all that bullishness based on the perceived
odds of a two year losing streak ending was just
plain silliness. But the sad thing is that there
were plenty of people who put there money into the
market based on such silliness. "


Well, what do you know, we are hearing similar stuff this
January!

I have included a market commentary just below...



// -- MODEL UPDATE -- //

LowRisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 7 (on a
scale of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)

***
Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% stocks as of 12/06/00
Graduated Strategy - 25% stocks, 75% money markets as of 12/10/2002
Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98

**********


Here we are a few trading days into the new year and the
bullishness is running rampant. After four days the Nasdaq
composite was up 7.2% and the SP500 gained 4.9%. If they can
only continue that pace for the rest of the year they will
finish December with gains of 7,851% and 1,936%, respectively.
I am willing to bet my mortgage that they fall short of
those numbers.

I guess what I am trying to say is don't get carried away
with bullish excitement. The first week of trading in 2002
started off great as well, but the January highs were not
seen again for the rest of the year.

There are still an awful lot of hopeful bulls that think
this market is just going to magically turn into a bull
market. Don't hold your breath... we are in the midst of a
historic bear market. We are not going to see a "V" bottom
and then a blast off higher. It will take months (and
possibly years) to really hammer out in a low and give us
the base for a sustainable bull market. That should happen
just about the time that those hopeful bulls finally give up
hope.

The bulls aren't the only ones with big visions. I have
noticed another phenomenon in the last six months or so, and
that is the greatly increased number of "perma-bears". These
are people that are preaching about an impending economic
collapse. Sort of like the Y2K thing, but this time it isn't
a computer bug that will doom us - it is a bear market.

I suppose they could be right - this *could* be the
beginning of the end of western civilization, or at least of
our current economic system. But I wouldn't bet on it - I
don't think the odds are very good.

I generally don't like to do much crystal ball gazing, but I
suspect we will get something in between a roaring bull
market and economic ruin... maybe a choppy market that more
or less goes sideways in a large range for a long time.

In any case, we are still mostly on the sidelines in the
safety of cash... where we have been pretty much throughout
this bear market. Our timing model is definitely poised to
move either higher or lower in a quick fashion... but right
now I think the odds are that we will stay mired in this
trading range for a while.