The Hemline Indicator
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The Hemline Indicator

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The Hemline Indicator
Trends in womens fashions and their link with economic activity have been so consistent that an investment analyst once devised the Hemline Indicator, supposedly to help predict the course of the stock market. If skirts went higher, the stock market would go higher. If hemlines fell, shares would fall in price.
According to the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, there was no such thing as fashion in ancient Greece or the Roman Empire; fashion did not exist until the middle of the fourteenth century. From the fifteenth century onward, fashion trends can be seen quite clearly as inextricably linked to economic conditions. During the fifteenth century, necklines were high, corsets loosely tied, and the feminine form well covered.
The following century brought a complete change in the fortunes of nations, and a change in womens fashions. Bosoms were exposed by low-cut bodices, and derrieres were thrust outwards through tight-pinched wasp-waisted corsets.
During Tudor times the wealthy nations declined. Bosoms were covered again, corsets were loosened and the feminine form was removed from display. Then came the Elizabethan times and prosperity, and out came the bosoms and bottoms.
In fashion, there is the thesis of erotic capital, by which the effectiveness of womens fashion depends on its newness to men. When concentration is on the legs for a considerable period, fashion will then shift to bosoms and bottoms.
Following the display of legs during the boom that began in the late 1780s and ended in 1814, it was not until the boom of the 1840s to 1860s that bosoms and bottoms occurred once again. Early Victorian styles permitted horizontal lines of décolletage, revealing not only bosoms, but also shoulders, a new zone of erotic capital.
The depression of the late nineteenth century sent necklines back up to the neck. Hemlines fell so low that skirts had to be lifted when a lady walked.
During the prosperity of the boom beginning at the turn of the twentieth century, erotic capital achieved its grandest exploitation in history by revealing the feminine form. Necklines opened up into a long V. Hemlines moved up until knees appeared. The female back emerged with evening dresses, and some daytime clothing, open in the back down to the waist.
During the depression of the 1930s, ladies covered up again. Hemlines dropped to the ankle, bosom lines rose to the neck and backs were covered.
It would appear that by the time of the 1990s boom, there was nothing new to display. But never underestimate the ingenuity of fashion designers. Our recent prosperity brought the hemline up to the crotch, and the neckline down to the waistline.
The recent 40% fall in the stock market could have been predicted three years ago when the hemlines of womens skirts started to fall. Those ladies and gentlemen who want to know what will happen to share prices over the next few years should keep a close eye on the Hemline Indicator.
John Smithee
Fenland Workers Party
Cambridgeshire
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