José Luís Carneiro considerado o melhor líder para o PS

[Ulisses Pereira]

Concordo contigo Cem.

Há muitos investidores que, hoje em dia, discordam da eficácia dos "breakouts". Aliás, há alguns cuja estratégia, basicamente, consiste em contrariar "breakouts". Contudo, eles continuam a ser o elemento fundamental no meu "trading" e, mesmo entrando em muitos falsos "breakouts" (como já aqui disse, tenho uma percentagem de acertos na casa dos 30%), aqueles que se revelam acertados mais que compensam as perdas alcançadas nos outros em que o "stop" foi activado.

E, obviamente, o "money management" tem aqui - como em quase todas as matérias do "trading" - um papel crucial.

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Cem]

Interessante artigo, especialmente a segunda parte!
É um assunto crítico para qualquer trader, mais do que negociar breakouts, saber a que níveis de risco são recomendáveis colocar as ordens de compra (ou venda em descidas) relacionadas com os stops de saída ou níveis a partir dos quais se reconhece um falso breakout.
Este tipo de padrão é obviamente conhecido e reconhecido por qualquer especulador como um dos mais lucrativos.
Uma boa técnica, mesmo para quem não use sistemas de trading, é usar um trigger com stop de compra caso se quebre uma forte resistência para comprar um primeiro grupo de acções, normalmente cerca de 1 a 2% acima do valor da resistência, e aguardar um reteste à resistência para comprar um segundo bloco. Se for um falso breakout o stop de saída é colocado um pouco abaixo dessa antiga resistência, as perdas serão negligenciáveis, se for um breakout com pernas para andar os lucros da trade compensam claramente as tentativas falhadas em 4 ou 5 breakouts, já que um lucro médio de qualquer bom arranque nestes padrões costuma exceder normalmente os 10%.
Bom contributo.
Um abraço,
Cem

[Camisa Roxa]

Já li e imprimi tudo para posterior referência!

Cumprimentos

[Curare]

Trading Tactics

RECOGNIZING FALSE BREAKOUTS AND WHIPSAWS


Swing traders encounter false breakouts and whipsaws throughout their careers. That shouldn't be surprising, though, because all we're doing is playing an odds game.

Even a perfect setup can fall apart for no reason and with little warning. This reminds us that risk management is mandatory if we want to trade successfully.

Breakouts occur in zones of conflict. Both sides of the market are very passionate at these turning points, but no one knows how much force is required to carry price into a sustainable trend. So any position you take near a breakout level carries considerable risk, no matter how perfect a pattern looks.

Price can respond in different ways to breakouts. First, it may carry through successfully to higher levels. Second, it may generate whipsaws that force losses on both sides of the market. Third, it may trap buyers in a false move and start a trend in the opposite direction. Each of these outcomes requires careful trade management.

A successful breakout occurs in three phases. It begins when price breaks through resistance on increased volume. We'll call this the action phase. Price expands a few points or ticks, and then reverses as soon as buying interest fades.

This starts the reaction phase. The market sells off and spawns the first pullback, where fresh buyers see a chance to get in close to the breakout price. If all systems are go, a second rally kicks in and carries price above the initial breakout high. This marks the resolution phase.

The three phases of a successful breakout depend on certain volume characteristics. Demand must exceed supply during the initial breakout. Volume should "dry up" when it pulls back in the reaction phase. And new buyers need to jump in to ensure a successful resolution phase. Whipsaws and false breakouts result when these supply-demand dynamics fall out of balance.

What exactly are whipsaws? Simply stated, they're choppy price swings back and forth through common support or resistance levels. Natural tug and pull generates most whipsaws.

But hidden hands also manipulate price through common stop levels in order to generate volume, and intentionally wash out one side of the market. Whatever the source, whipsaws are responsible for many of the losses in a swing trader's portfolio.

Whipsaws emerge when a breakout can't generate an efficient reaction phase. This failure may or may not trigger a major reversal. The pullback shakes out weak hands and forces price back into resistance.

But there's usually a healthy supply of buyers throughout the choppy movement. These bulls step in repeatedly to support the market. A successful breakout can begin quickly after a whipsaw fades out. The loss of volatility actually triggers a buying signal on many trading screens. This starts a bounce that generates the momentum needed to carry price up and beyond the last high.



Major reversals occur when price action traps one side of the market. Many traders wait to enter positions at key breakout levels. Once these folks execute their trades, they're at the mercy of the market.

In other words, their profits depend on others seeing the breakout and jumping in behind them. False breakouts occur when this second crowd fails to appear.

An overbought, one-sided market can drop quickly below a breakout level. This throws all the traders who bought the breakout into losing positions. Without the support of fresh buyers, a stock can fall from its own weight. Each incremental low triggers more stops and increases fear within the trapped crowd. Momentum builds to the downside, breaks key support and invites fresh short-sale signals from a whole new batch of traders.

http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/hrebreakout.htm

Abraço.

[Curare]

Trading Tactics

BREAKOUT TRADING

Significant declines evolve into long bottoms characterized by failed rallies and retesting of prior lows. As new accumulation slowly shakes out the last crowd of losers, a stock's character changes. Prices push toward the top of key resistance. Short-term relative strength improves and charts print a series of bullish price bars with closing ticks near their highs. Finally the issue begins a steady march through the wall marked by previous failures.

Stocks must overcome gravity to enter new uptrends. Value players build bases but can't supply the critical force needed to fuel rallies. Fortunately, the momentum crowd will arrive just in time to fill this chore. As a stock slowly rises above resistance, greed rings a loud bell and these growth players jump in all at the same time.

The appearance of a sharp breakout gap has tremendous buy power. But the skilled trader should remain cautious unless the move is accompanied by heavy volume. Bursts of enthusiastic buying should draw wide attention, which ignites further price expansion. When volume fails to show, the gap may quickly fill and trap the emotional longs.

Non-gapping, high volume surges provide a comfortable price floor similar to gaps. But support may be more difficult to measure. And momentum can take longer to develop, forcing a stock to swing into a new range rather than rise quickly. Fortunately this scenario also sets up pullback trades as support forces profitable bounces.

The uptrend terrain faces predictable obstacles marked by Clear Air pockets and congestion from prior downtrends. These barriers force frequent dips that mark good buying opportunities. The trader must identify these profitable zones in advance but also recognize that dips will disappear during the strongest rallies. Here price blasts through prior resistance as enthusiasm explodes.

During uptrends, one goal is to locate runaway expansion moves. As trend builds momentum, both gapping and non-gapping surges will register on technical indicators, such as MACD or ADX. Short pullbacks should not violate the math of this developing strength. As volatility absorbs each surge, more powerful rallies should erupt. During these events, price range and volume will expand bar to bar, often culminating in a second (continuation) gap and a final exhaustion spike.

http://www.hardrightedge.com/wheel/tcbreak.htm

Abraço.

[Curare]

Cá vai uma pequena ajuda...

The Development of a Breakout

By Diane Krueger

For novice traders, using breakouts may seem like a piece of cake. Wait for the price to move up or down, then trade. However, trading breakouts requires more knowledge, patience and expertise than some traders think.

There are many ways to trade breakouts, but the concept remains the same. Breakouts generally involve a rise in a commodity's price above the major moving averages, a resistance level, usually its previous high, or a drop below a support level, its previous low. Support and resistance are important concepts for traders to understand when using breakouts. Support is a price level a commodity has difficulty falling below. In contrast, resistance is a price level a commodity has difficulty rising above. A breakout can occur after breaking an all-time high, also. Trading breakouts involves putting yourself in the direction of a trend. Therefore, because trends are temporary, it is important for traders to monitor price levels to trade with the trend and avoid losses.

An important point to remember when using breakouts, as a general rule, is volume picks up noticeably with the break of prices into a new trend or out of congestion. If the breakout is not accompanied by an increase in volume, it is likely to be a false breakout and prices will return to their previous levels quickly.

When there are more buyers than sellers and demand overwhelms supply, a bullish breakout should transpire. Bullish breakouts usually occur with significant increases in volume over average daily trading activity. Conversely, when there are more sellers than buyers and supply overwhelms demand, a bearish breakout should occur. Significant increases in volume for bearish breakouts also should take place.

Generally, it is a bad sign if a breakout is not accompanied by an increase in volume. Most breakouts normally are followed by an eventual pull back and test of the breakout point. It is important for traders not to buy or sell in the face of an immediate break in support or resistance levels because if the breakout is fleeting, prices will return to prior levels quickly. For example, if you felt the price at which you bought was extended from the breakout and you sold, you may want to re-enter if the retest of the breakout holds and price bounces on good volume.

"The primary advantage to buying or selling on a breakout is that it forces you to go with the trend and it forces you to wait for a trend to develop before entering," says Jay Kaeppel, director of research at Wheaton, Ill.-based Essex Trading Group and author of The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading. "While you may sometimes get into a trade late waiting for a breakout, you don't have to predict which direction the market is going or enter a trade and wait around hoping that the market will go in the direction you predicted. You simply wait for the market to tell you."

Confirmation tips

After breaking a support or resistance level, it's common for traders to question the new price levels. For example, after a breakout above a resistance level, buyers may question the validity of the new level and decide to sell. This creates a situation commonly referred to as trader's remorse.

Prices often return to a support or resistance level following a price breakout. Novice traders can get caught in the undertow of trader's remorse if caution is not taken. A seasoned trader may have noticed a lack of volume increase and decided to take his profits and run. While the new trader, not paying attention to volume levels, gets caught in the selling fury and suffers significant losses.

Breaking the levels of support or resistance can be triggered by a variety of factors that are above or below traders' expectations. Changes in earnings, management and competition can all contribute to a breakout. An informed trader needs to be familiar with and monitor the possible causes of a break in support or resistance levels.

"As with any trading method, there will be some false signals," says Rose Wang Chin, principal at New York-based Carat Capital LLC. "Also, breakouts may get you into a trade once the trend has been underway for a while. You may miss a portion of the move or get in just in time for a reversal."

Beware of those dangerous moves, echoes Mark Leibovit, chief market strategist at Sedona, Ariz.-based VRTrader.com. "False breakouts can create whipsaws. A key is determining ahead of time, as best as practicable, where you are in the move. A breakout near the top of a move, for example, especially accompanied by good news, might be a bull trap."

A good way to affirm your expectations following a breakout is to examine the volume associated with the price breakout. If prices break through support or resistance levels with a large increase in volume and the trader's remorse period is on relatively low volume, it implies that the new levels will remain.

Conversely, if the breakout is on moderate volume and the remorse period is on increased volume, it suggests traders are not confident with the new price levels and a return to previous levels occurs. Using filters, increasing the time frame before making the trade and using other forms of technical analysis may help to alleviate getting caught in a false breakout or being affected by trader's remorse.

"I usually buy in two stages," says Lawrence G. McMillan, president of Morristown, N.J.-based McMillan Analysis Corp. "I buy a half position when the futures trade at prices above resistance and complete the position by buying the other half if prices close above the breakout level that day. In this way, if it's a false breakout, you've only taken half a position."

Wang Chin suggests an idea used by professional traders: "Historically, breakout systems have been one of the better risk-adjusted technical trading systems. They result in the trader following the underlying trend, while avoiding some false movements in the markets."

Making the trade

There are several different ways to trade breakouts. Monitoring patterns within consolidations; tops and bottoms; highs and lows; moving averages; daily, weekly or monthly prices are just a few ways to look for breakouts. But, solely relying on one method can be harmful to a trader's financial health. As is the case with other forms of technical analysis, a variety of data needs to be collected and analyzed to make an informed trade.

"When trading breakouts, I don't use any particular system other than to note where prices have met resistance at least two times previously," McMillan says. "Then, any subsequent move above those resistance levels is an upside breakout. The more resistance that has built up preceding the breakout, the better I will like the breakout when it eventually occurs.

"On the other hand, if you don't notice the breakout until after it's already occurred, presumably the day after you spot the breakout on a chart, then I wouldn't chase it. I would attempt to buy it on a pullback to levels just above the breakout level."

The methods traders use for monitoring breakouts are a lot like snowflakes - no two are alike. Finding a method that you feel comfortable with and that actually works is a challenge for some traders. Because of the particular dynamics involved in trading breakouts, many traders have developed idiosyncratic signals or techniques that will alert them when a breakout occurs.

"I don't like buying or selling to enter a new trade based simply on when the market makes a new 10-day high, for example," Kaeppel says. "I prefer to buy or sell breakouts based on some multiple of the 10-day standard deviation of daily price movement or some multiple of the 10-day average daily range. Using these methods, the trigger points adjust automatically to current market conditions."

Breakouts provide traders with a place to set stops. For example, a short seller could set a buy stop above the market. This would limit the losses on short positions established under the assumption that selling pressure would limit price advances.

"I use trailing stops once the profits begin to accumulate. After the breakout, if the contracts move nicely higher, then I will begin using the 20-day simple moving average as a mental closing stop. This method automatically forces the trailing stop higher as prices continue to rise. Also, it's never a bad idea to take some partial profits along the way, to reduce your overall risk and to lock in some profits," McMillan says.

Although the methods may vary, the goal remains the same. To spot and profitably trade new breakouts is the desired objective for any trader. However, keeping your eyes on the prize can be difficult in the fast-paced and constantly changing world of breakouts.

Trading breakouts is not a walk in the park. Spotting breakouts before they occur is a difficult task. There are necessary precautions that need to be taken to stave off debilitating losses. A trader needs to have some type of stop-loss provision in place before trading breakouts. Because many breakouts fail, establishing a stop-loss provision can help cut your losses in the midst of a collapsing breakout.

"I would stop myself out if prices closed back below the breakout level," says McMillan. "That means it was a failed breakout."

Another disadvantage to using breakouts is slippage costs. The difference between the estimated and actual prices you pay and receive on your trades could be large with breakouts. "If you are doing large size it may be difficult to get filled at your stop price if you are buying into a strong new up trend or selling into a strong downtrend," Kaeppel says.

When trading breakouts, you nearly always start the trade with profits. The possibility of a lucrative payoff is what attracts some to trading breakouts. However, the momentum required to create the breakout may be fleeting and losses may ensue. Novice traders are not aware of the possible dangers that lurk around the corner. Whether the momentum carries through and creates profits is an uncertainty traders must be aware of when using breakouts.

Deciphering the difference between a real breakout and a false breakout is crucial for making successful trades. There are many factors that contribute to breakouts. Traders must be prepared and have done the homework to trade breakouts before they actually show up on charts.

Discipline is an important quality for any trader, but especially for one who trades breakouts. A trader needs to be patient and wait for the breakout to develop. Often times there are many false signals that may lead an unprepared trader in the wrong direction. Trading breakouts requires paying attention to the many factors that make up a breakout. Volume and the extent of the price movement must be considered carefully to determine that a breakout really has occurred. This is where the discipline is needed. When traders see price levels breaking resistance or support levels they must wait to see if it truly is a breakout.

"A lot of breakouts fail," Kaeppel says. "It takes a great deal of discipline to keep entering orders to buy on the next upside breakout when the last three upside breakouts failed and resulted in losses."

Desculpem lá mas mesmo toscamente, não vou traduzir isto...

http://www.futuresmag.com/futuresclassroom/articles/fcr_a_9.html

Abraço.[/b]