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WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Bush and congressional Democrats will debate the nation's economic policy next week and unveil competing proposals designed to stimulate the lackluster U.S. economy.

But before the plans are even on the table, the two sides have been trading charges, with Democrats saying the White House is focusing on the wealthiest taxpayers and Bush accusing Democrats of engaging in "class warfare."

On Saturday, as the president spent a quiet day at his ranch working on the final details of his proposal, Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle took to the airwaves to deride Bush's tax cut plan as "the wrong idea at the wrong time to help the wrong people."

"The president's plan won't help middle-income families, it won't contribute to economic growth, it won't make our homeland more secure, it won't expand educational opportunity for the young or strengthen Social Security for the elderly," he said. "Instead, by putting us deeper into deficit and debt, it makes all of those things harder to achieve."

The proposal that Bush will announce Tuesday in Chicago, which is being termed a "jobs and growth plan," will cost $600 billion, an administration official said Saturday -- double previous White House estimates.

Defending the cost of the plan at a time of deficit spending, the official said, "The president is interested in balancing the budget, but growth creates a surplus. Surplus doesn't create growth."

Congressional sources familiar with the details of the White House plan said it would likely include new tax breaks for individuals and businesses, such as tax cuts on stock dividends, write-offs for businesses that purchase certain equipment and acceleration of tax cuts currently scheduled to take effect in 2004.

In addition to reinstating an extension of unemployment compensation that expired in December, the plan may also include other benefits for jobless Americans, including job training programs, the sources said.

The president will also propose giving federal dollars to cash-strapped states to fund Medicaid and other programs, the sources said.

The plan could also include proposals targeted to middle- and low-income Americans, such as a child tax credit and a boost in the earned income tax credit, the sources said, but it is not clear if those provisions will make it.

Daschle, who is expected to announce a 2004 presidential exploratory committee in the coming weeks, said the tax cuts in the president's plan "would almost exclusively go to the wealthiest Americans."

"I intend to do everything I can to replace this misguided plan with a proposal for immediate tax relief for middle-class families -- tax relief that will actually spur economic growth," he said. He offered no specifics of what that plan might entail.

On Monday, House Democrats plan to release their own stimulus proposals. At a news conference Friday, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California gave few details of the proposal but characterized it as "fair" and "fiscally sound."

"It will create jobs and it will grow the economy," she said.

Pelosi dismissed the reported outline of the Bush plan as a "Trojan horse to wheel in some tax breaks for the high end that they're so fond of."

She pointed in particular to the plan to reduce taxes on dividends, which she said could cost $250 billion over 10 years -- a quarter of which would go to millionaires. And she also criticized the administration for not pushing for an extension in unemployment benefits sooner.

"It is certainly going to be too little too late but we'll just see how little it is," she said.

Congressional sources said the Democratic plan would be more expensive than the White House plan in the short-term, though it would cost less in the long-term -- reflecting the Democratic view that more must be done immediately to bolster the economy.

The Democratic plan will likely include a refundable tax credit, similar to the 2001 tax rebate checks, sources said. However, instead of covering only those people who pay taxes, as the 2001 rebate did, the Democratic plan would also provide the credit to those who don't pay taxes, the sources said.

Bush, speaking to reporters at his ranch Thursday, rejected Democratic criticism that his plan will primarily benefit wealthier Americans.

"What I'm worried about is job creation, and I'm worried about those who are unemployed," he said. "When I talk about an economic stimulus package, I will talk about how to create jobs as well as how to take care of those who don't have a job."

"I understand the politics of economic stimulus, that some would like to turn this into class warfare. That's not how I think. I think about the overall economy and how best to help those folks who are looking for work."

CNN White House Correspondent Dana Bash and CNN Congressional Correspondent Jonathan Karl contributed to this report.

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Japan's New Central Bank Chief Must Stimulate Prices (Update2)
By Yoshiko Matsushita


Fukuoka, Japan, Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's next central bank chief needs to set a target to raise consumer prices as a four-year slide saps business growth in the world's second-largest economy, a top ruling party official said.

``What we're facing now is an emergency situation,'' Taku Yamasaki, the Liberal Democratic Party's secretary-general, said in an interview with Bloomberg News. ``We need someone with a strong personality even if it's a little overbearing.''

Yamasaki indicated the government may pick a more compliant Bank of Japan governor to replace Masaru Hayami, whose five-year term ends March 19. Toshihiko Fukui, a frontrunner and former central bank deputy chief, may be too concerned about keeping the independence won by the central bank in 1998, Yamasaki said.

``We don't need to have an agreement with the Bank of Japan to set the target if we can communicate well,'' Yamazaki later said on Japan's NHK television program ``Sunday Debate.'' ``I want someone who can harmonize with us as a new Bank of Japan governor.''

Yamasaki and other politicians may be losing sight of the more immediate problem of ballooning bad loans at Japan's private lenders, an investor said.

``Tackling deflation is one goal,'' said Yukari Sato, a senior economist at J.P. Morgan Securities Asia. ``But, ideally, the next BOJ governor will be someone who can cooperate on government efforts to accelerate bad loan disposal.''

Japanese banks are struggling to wipe away bad loans that amounted to 52.4 trillion yen ($437 billion) as of March 31, according to government figures. Takenaka in November outlined a plan that calls for tougher loan assessments and a review of what banks count as capital.

Decision Still `Open'

The decision on the next BOJ chief is still ``open,'' said Yamasaki, who denied a Yomiuri newspaper report on Dec. 19 that he recommended former central bank board member Nobuyuki Nakahara, an advocate of inflation targeting. ``I haven't recommended anyone for the post,'' he said.

Fukui, who worked at the BOJ for 40 years and now heads the Fujitsu Research Institute, told Bloomberg News last month he opposes government interference with the central bank's policies, including pressure to set a target for boosting prices.

Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka and other top government officials have also put pressure on the central bank to adopt an inflation target -- setting a goal for prices to rise, and pumping money into the banking system until it's met.

Falling prices have squeezed profits and made it harder for companies to pay debt. Japanese consumer prices, excluding fresh food, haven't risen annually since April 1998. In December, Tokyo core prices fell 0.7 percent from a year ago.

``To overcome a possible crisis, monetary policy is the last resort as the government has done pretty much all it can do now, especially on fiscal and tax-related policies.'' Yamasaki said.

Yen

Yamasaki also called for a weaker yen against the dollar, saying the level now ``isn't desirable'' as a stronger yen makes Japanese exports less competitive. Exports comprise a 10th of Japan's economy.

The yen rose almost 10 percent against the dollar last year, eroding the value of overseas profits for exporters. On Dec. 31, the yen rose to as high as 118.39 against the dollar. It traded at 119.81 in New York on Friday.

``From a point of view of whether it's an appropriate level or not, I'd say the yen should be much weaker than now,'' Yamasaki said. ``The current level isn't desirable.''

Lower House Election

The government is preparing this month to nominate the central bank governor, who must be approved by both houses of parliament. In practice, the decision will be made by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, whose party leads the coalition government.

The nomination will probably come before Jan. 20, the beginning of the next session of parliament.

On the timing of the next lower house election, Yamasaki said it ``will probably be held between July and December.'' Japan's lower house must be dissolved before June 2004, when its four-year term ends.

Asked about the possibility the lower house election will come before the Liberal Democrats vote in September on Koizumi's continued leadership of the party, Yamasaki said, ``that could happen.''

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Uncle Sam giveth, states taketh away

Economy could get $50B stimulus in 2003 -- but cash-strapped states could take it right back.
January 3, 2003: 4:12 PM EST
By Mark Gongloff, CNN/Money Staff Writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - President Bush and Congress hope to rejuvenate the U.S. economy this year with a cocktail of tax cuts, spending hikes and other federal programs -- but cash-strapped state governments could water down the federal government's medicine.

On Tuesday, Bush is expected to announce the details of a fiscal stimulus package that could pump $300 billion into the economy in the next ten years, mainly in the form of tax breaks. Many economists think the package could boost the economy by about $50 billion this year.

But state governments, strapped for cash because of plunging tax revenue, might counteract the federal stimulus with tax hikes, spending cuts and job cuts -- possibly even wiping out any positive effect of the federal package this year, according to some economists.


"The impact is going to be very significant -- it may shave as much as a half-percentage point from economic growth this year," said Mark Zandi, economist and co-founder of Economy.com.

Zandi estimates the states' efforts to fix their budget woes could sap about $50 billion from the economy in 2003 -- matching an estimated $50 billion in federal stimulus this year.

Other economists disagree, saying states likely won't take such drastic measures, that an economic recovery will help state tax revenues recover with little help at all.

"State and local budgets can be corrected by small changes in the relative growth rates of spending and tax revenues, rather than by jarring policy initiatives," Salomon Smith Barney senior economist Robert DiClemente said in a research note.

Still, states are in their worst fiscal shape in decades, according to some measures.

Beginning in the third quarter of 2001 -- when the Sept. 11 terror attacks helped worsen a recession that had existed since March -- state tax revenue began to fall and has fallen on a year-over-year basis in every quarter since, according to data compiled by the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government.

"The drop in revenue is the worst since data have been collected -- since World War II," said Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers in Washington, D.C., a group that researches state budget practices and helps budget officers form policy.

And that pain could be worsened by federal government tax cuts, which could shrink the amount of taxable income into which states sink their hooks. For example, a dividend tax cut, widely expected to be part of Bush's proposal, will cut federal taxable income, and many states use federal taxable income as the basis for their taxes.

Rainy day funds dry up
Last year, many states were able to use rainy day funds, cigarette-tax hikes and other politically painless measures to fill the budget gap caused by a drop in revenue.


But states also increased taxes by a total of $9.1 billion, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the first such net gain since 1994 -- a trend that could pick up steam this year, with rainy day funds dry and other politically painless options gone.

"They really are at a point where the easy stuff to do has been done, so now the choice has become between tax increases and fairly stringent cuts in programs," said Pattison.

Pattison did note that political constraints and worries about the negative economic impact of such painful measures could delay them for some time and that states might try other last-chance measures -- including hikes in fees and college tuition -- before swallowing bitter tax-hike or spending-cut pills.

But such a day of reckoning is closer than ever, especially since state governments -- unlike the federal government -- must have a balanced budget every year.

The unthinkable becomes thinkable
"A lot of the things that until now seemed unthinkable are starting to be thinkable," said Nick Johnson, director of the state fiscal project at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington think tank that focuses on issues affecting lower-income families.

"It didn't seem likely that states would take health insurance from a million people ... but that's what a number of states have done and are proposing to do -- and that's just the tip of the iceberg," Johnson added. "They have to balance the budget somehow."

With that potential political pain in mind, some legislators have already suggested that state help be part of a federal stimulus package, and it's increasingly possible that Bush will agree -- especially if such a measure helps win Democratic support for the package.

"Part of the program may include relief for states ... so the drag may not be as large from the state side," said Merrill Lynch senior economist Gerald Cohen, who also noted that spending on the military and homeland security will give an additional boost to the economy. "You definitely will see some drag from the states, offsetting the stimulus from the federal side, but it won't be enough to totally offset the federal side."

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Wall Street gets busy

Vacation's over and the first full week will give investors much to chew on.
January 3, 2003: 5:49 PM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - It's been a long holiday respite for many Wall Streeters, but come Monday morning they'll heave a sigh, push the last bit of yule log into the fire, and head off to work. The first full trading week of the year will be a busy one.

Much is afoot. Tuesday President Bush gives a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago where he's expected to detail his tax-cut and fiscal stimulus proposals. Friday brings the key economic release of the month, the December jobs report. And with earnings season just around the corner, expect companies whose results will come up short of expectations to confess their sins.

Put all those things together and you've hit on three of the market's four major themes of the year: Can Washington put together a stimulus package that will help put the economy back on the rails? Do consumers have the wherewithal to keep the economy propped up until that stimulus hits, or will a deteriorating labor market snuff their willingness to spend? Will the earnings picture improve, as it must for companies to spend and hire again, in 2003?

The fourth issue -- what will happen with Iraq? -- will surely be in the news as well. (For a look at key events in the week ahead, click here.)

"It's going to be a real interesting week," said Ned Riley, chief investment officer at State Street Global Advisors.

Let's hope it's interesting in the sense of thought-provoking and engaging -- and not in the sense of the old Chinese curse: "May you live in interesting times."

Robin Hood
President Bush's plan to succor the U.S. economy will probably be the week's biggest headline grabber. Among the White House's frontline proposals will likely be a reduction of the tax investors pay on dividends, accelerating the date of previously passed tax cuts, increasing the write-downs companies get on equipment purchases, and the extension of unemployment benefits for jobless workers.


Democrats, with an eye toward the 2004 election, will say the Bush plan favors the rich, Republicans will counter that the Democrats are just playing politics and that that's a bad thing to be doing in the nation's hour of economic need, to which Democrats will say the Republicans are disingenuous ... you get the picture.

What economists care about is whether the plan is going to work, and most reckon that it probably will ensure the economy is growing strongly by the end of the year. That doesn't mean that they think it's the most efficient way of getting things going -- they see little immediate economic benefit in, for example, cutting dividend taxes. But you didn't expect something efficient out of Washington, did you?

Men at work?
Friday's jobs report could be a recipe for confusion. The consensus among economists is that the economy added 21,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate held at 6 percent, but individual estimates are all over the place. Salomon Smith Barney, for example, is looking for the sort of report that could put a big smile on investors' faces -- the unemployment rate slipping to 5.8 percent, 100,000 new jobs. In contrast, Lehman Brothers expects an unemployment rate of 6.1 percent and a loss of 25,000 jobs.


So what's up? It's not that Lehman and Solly's views of the economy are so different, just that they have differing ideas of how seasonal factors related to holiday employment are going to affect the report. Investors might be better off focusing on the overall employment picture rather than this single report.

"It's going to be relatively soft labor market over the course of the year," said Raymond James economist Scott Brown, who looks for unemployment to tick up through midyear and then settle back down to 6 percent or so by year's end.

Brown noted many companies appear to be holding off on expansion plans because of concerns over Iraq. Unless that uncertainty is removed, through either swift military action or political resolution, in the months to come, the economic outlook will be bleak.

"If we're into July and we're still wondering what's going to happen with Iraq, that will not be a good thing," said Brown.

Red sky in the morning
Typically, companies that aren't going to get the results investors expect issue warnings late in the quarter. But in the fourth quarter, they typically wait until Christmas and New Year have past. The first full week of trading is often chock-full of companies saying they're not quite up to snuff.


That can pose a hurdle for the market, but this time around, thinks State Street's Riley, the news is already baked in the cake. On Friday, for example, stocks shook off an earnings warning from Home Depot easily, giving back just a fraction of the ground they gained in Thursday's big rally.

"The market may be more conditioned to take surprises than we give it credit for," said Riley.

Key events in the week ahead
Monday the Institute for Supply Management releases its December purchasing managers' index for the service sector. Although economists don't put much stock in this report (it has little history and they don't like the way it's constructed), the market often responds to it. The consensus forecast, according to Briefing.com, is for the index to drop to 55.8 compared with 57.4 in November.

November factory orders are due out Tuesday. Because they've already seen durable goods orders for November, investors think they already know what this report will look like: weak. Economists expect a drop of 0.6 percent compared with a 1.2 percent gain in October.

Tuesday President Bush is set to announce the details of his tax cut and economic stimulus package in his speech before Economic Club of Chicago.

Wednesday morning Alcoa announces its fourth-quarter earnings. It was a tough year for the big aluminum maker: The global economy cooled, demand slackened, and Alcoa's stock price fell by 36 percent. Analysts polled by Multex expect it earned 26 cents a share in the fourth quarter versus the 11 cents it made in the fourth quarter of 2001. For the full year they expect it earned $1.02 a share versus last year's $1.46. Alcoa is the first Dow component to report results -- look for earnings season to really heat up in following week.

Wednesday afternoon the Fed releases November consumer credit figures. Because this number is subject to huge revisions, the market doesn't follow this one too closely. Still, consumer credit grew at a slower pace in 2002, reflecting increased caution among consumers. Economists expect it grew by $3.8 billion in November versus October's $1.5 billion.

November wholesale inventories get released Thursday. Economists expect they picked up by 0.2 percent after falling by 0.3 percent (thanks, in part, to the West Coast port shutdown) in October.

Some economists like to call the jobs report "the mother of all economic indicators." Clearly some economists need to get more -- but nonetheless Friday's report will be the key to the week. The consensus thinks 21 thousand jobs were added in December, against a loss of 40 thousand jobs in November, and that unemployment held steady at 6 percent. Be careful, however: The funky seasonal patterns created by the holidays mean that this report could easily surprise in either direction.

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Anacom solicita proposta de revisão dos preços do lacete local à PT

3-1-2003 18:22



A Autoridade Nacional de Comunicações (Anacom) anunciou, esta sexta-feira, que solicitou uma proposta de revisão integrada dos preços da oferta de referência para o acesso ao lacete local à PT Comunicações.
A entidade reguladora alega que a mensalidade do lacete local para a prestação de serviços de banda larga e a mensalidade do acesso partilhado encontram-se 7 e 40%, respectivamente, acima da média da União Europeia.

O prazo de entrega da nova proposta e da sua fundamentação é 20 de Janeiro

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Economia brasileira deverá crescer menos de 2% por ano

3-1-2003 19:20



A economia brasileira deverá crescer menos de 2% por ano, em 2003 e 2004, segundo estimativas de seis instituições financeiras compiladas pelo Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Económico e Social (BNDES).

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Índices norte-americanos fecham pouco alterados com retalhistas a pressionar

Os índices accionistas nos Estados Unidos encerraram a semana com fracas variações, tendo as empresas retalhistas liderado as quedas. O Nasdaq avançou 0,16% e o Dow Jones desceu 0,07%.
Numa semana em que amealharam ganhos o Nasdaq terminou nos 1.387,02 pontos e o Dow Jones fechou a valer 8.601,69 pontos.

As retalhistas condicionaram a evolução dos índices depois da Home Depot, empresa líder na venda de artigos para o lar, ter baixado as expectativas de lucros para o presente ano fiscal.

Os resultados líquidos da Home Depot, do ano que termina a 2 de Fevereiro, estarão compreendidos entre os 1,53 e os 1,55 dólares (1,48 e os 1,49 euros) por acção, contra os 1,57 dólares (1,52 euros) por acção previstos anteriormente.

A Home Depot caiu 13,99% e a Wal-Mart, maior retalhista do mundo, depreciou 3,1%.

As construtoras automóveis também penalizaram os índices, depois de terem anunciado vendas pouco animadoras no mês de Dezembro. A General Motors caiu 0,9%.

A impulsionar o Nasdaq a Hewlet Packard avançou 2,36%, a Cisco Systems progrediu 1,98% e a Oracle somou 3,12%.


Fonte: Canal de Negócios

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Euro valoriza com descida dos índices nos Estados Unidos

O euro seguia a subir face ao dólar, em consequência da descida dos índices norte-americanos, influenciada pela quebra do desempenho dos retalhistas nos Estados Unidos (EUA), liderada pela Home Depot.
O euro [EUR] seguia a subir 0,53% para os 1,0416 dólares.

O Dow Jones seguia a cair 0,28%, enquanto o Nasdaq desvalorizava 0,45%. Os analistas, citados pelas agências internacionais, consideram que este desempenho é consequência da dificuldade da maior economia do mundo recuperar.

As retalhistas lideraram as quedas dos índices depois de a Home Depot, empresa líder na venda de artigos para o lar, ter cortado as expectativas de lucros para o presente ano fiscal.


Fonte: Canal de Negócios 2003/01/03 20:00:54h

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ONI Way troca arresto sobre activos por garantia bancária de 70 milhões

A ONI Way trocou o arresto que pendia sobre os seus activos por uma garantia bancária de cerca de 70 milhões de euros, libertando-os para a planeada venda aos três operadores móveis, disse António Vidigal, presidente da ONI Way, ao Negocios.pt.
«Conseguimos levantar o arresto que pendia sobre os activos por uma garantia bancária», disse António Vidigal, em declarações telefónicas ao Negocios.pt.

Treze lojistas da ONI Way, de um conjunto de 25, interpuseram uma providência cautelar no Tribunal Cível de Lisboa que implicou no arresto, ou apreensão judicial, dos activos da empresa, impossibilitando-a de proceder à sua venda.

Com a transferência do arresto para uma garantia bancária «a ONI Way mantém os activos e fica liberta para dispor deles em qualquer decisão a ser tomada na próximo segunda-feira», acrescentou a mesma fonte.

Após a troca para uma garantia bancária, «no valor de 70 milhões de euros», a ONI Way admite «chegar a um acordo com os lojistas, para os compensar dos custos que tiveram», disse Vidigal.

No entanto, a ONI Way entende que o valor da indemnização exigida «é exorbitante», adiantou Vidigal, lembrando que «todas as lojas foram construídas por nós».

Os lojistas, com esta acção em tribunal, visam ser indemnizados pelos investimentos e perdas com o fecho da empresa, pois iriam ser agentes comerciais da companhia.

Na próxima segunda-feira a ONI Way vai decidir, em assembleia geral, sobre as alternativas que se colocam à empresa, sendo a mais provável a venda de activos e capital social aos operadores móveis nacionais com o consequente encerramento da companhia.

Os accionistas Telenor e Iberdrola, com 28% do capital, mostram-se contra o encerramento da ONI Way. Vidigal não quis comentar esta informação, afirmando que «essa é uma questão de accionistas e não da administração».

Apesar de não estar formalmente decidido o encerramento da ONI Way, o principal accionista, a Electricidade de Portugal [EDP], acordou em vender os activos da empresa por 161 milhões de euros à Vodafone Telecel, TMN e Optimus, que vêm assim afastado o receio da entrada de um novo operador no mercado móvel.


Fonte: Canal de Negócios 2003/01/03 19:54:48h

[Pata-Hari]

Um bom-dia a todos!