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[Visitante]

There is an outside chance that the market may go NEGATIVE right off of a weak opening and flounder BELOW 1144.00. This is a sign of weakness and the recent days of the lower early day and later rallies may be coming to an end.

Hmmmm... é capaz de ter razão... para hoje.

Abraço Dwer,
D1as

[Dwer]

Market Force: Bearish on rallies. Look for any rallies today to start getting hit with selling. Also watch for price breakdowns below 1144.00 as a sign of weakness.

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, April 5, 2004:
No trades entered Monday. Market traded in tight range most of the day.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

Our Headline Call for Monday was for continued bullishness with an expectation of seeing the market run up near 1151.00

Most of the day we saw the market trade in a small range between 1141'and 1144 until the final 50 minutes of trading when they took off towards 1150 into the close.

We stood aside in early trading although looking back there was a Trailblazer 3rd level move lower that also showed triple bottom support at 1144.25 at the exact BreakDown to one tick lower. I left that trade alone but with patience it would have been a nice move up later in the session. Could have had a nice nap waiting for that move...LOL.

We are starting to see the beginning of some exhaustion as the market is preparing to "roll into a Sell Mode". Once we see this occur (which should be soon) we will then be monitoring the Sell Market Force to see if they can take em down substantially on an "opening day" and then on to support near the 1104 to slightly below the 1100 handle area again.

More on this below.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our focus today is to see if we can get one more rally up in the early going ideally on a HIGHER OPENING which runs up FIRST.

Should this be the case we would expect the market to start showing signs of weakness and faltering on the rallies. The best scenario if this setup occurs would be the see the TRIN moving above .90 or higher and a weaker NAZ in relation to the Dow.

If for any reason the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) is really strong (trading above +12-15 or higher) then be willing to either get short on a higher rally above the first blast up or just wait to compare to the Hour One pivot BreakOut.

Today is setup that an early rally up that occurs swiftly may not decide to hang around for the BreakOut and may fall off as fast as it ran up.

Once we see how the market gets cooking off the first 40 minutes or so we will have a better clue as to how all of this will play out.

There is an outside chance that the market may go NEGATIVE right off of a weak opening and flounder BELOW 1144.00. This is a sign of weakness and the recent days of the lower early day and later rallies may be coming to an end.

I expect we will have one more strong move up this morning as THERE ARE TOO MANY BEARS STILL getting short on the flat, low range action.

That is why I was standing aside Monday in our Live Update service. I didn't want to short the low range as I had stated in our Headline Call to expect 1151 yet I did not see a strong, complelling reason to be long near 1044.00

It appears that more and more we are seeing some semblance of the TCF system that we used very succesfully in 2003 coming back into play.

Be careful and don't get fooled as it is not so simple. Just because you see the market make an 8-10 point move doesn't mean the EXACT system is working. The main thing right now I am CLEARLY noticing is succesful is that by being on the correct side of the Headline Call Market Force is going to keep the trade out of trouble.

I had changed the Headline Call recently to reflect the type of Market Force that is prominent for the day and it has been succesful so far.

So again, look for early rallies to falter and start to pullback unless the High Five is very strong. If so then we will most likely see continued strength with support and a tight range for today.
Value Area: 1,140.30 - 1,145.00
1145.00 is expected to be support for a run up to the 1156 goal area mentioned.

If we fall back then below 1144-45 is a sign of weakness.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,142.50 - 1,143.50
No trade at this pivot today. We have the Buy Pivot target right in the middle of the VA today which is very interesting and will provide clues as to this area being support near the 1144.00 area or as expected we push below that and lose some handles in the process.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,151.75 - 1,150.75
Watch for a Trailblazer 3rd level up move in the 1152-56 area for shorting. I realize this is a larger range but it encompases the Sell Pivot and the +4.25 stop/pivot price.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,119.10
We are bullish above this but we are expecting the gap between current prices and this Pit Bull to start shrinking soon.

Pro Trader's Action
Watch for a move higher early to be Bearish on rallies. If we get cooking to the upside look for the 1152-56 area to be a resistance zone and the lower 1144 area to be a weakness point below.

The markets will most likely try and "hang up" today but we expect the weakness to start kicking in. If we get short that may take some faith in the system and the Headline Call but if we got the High Five confirming that action then the patience will come easier.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action.

Live update traders look for an update just after the first half hour is complete.

Let's have some fun today, Mohan