Fundos à la carte
Re: Fundos à la carte
The Collapse of The American Dream Explained in Animation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mII9NZ8MMVM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mII9NZ8MMVM
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
O fundo misterioso que é uma máquina de fazer dinheiro
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt//mercado ... _Destaques
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt//mercado ... _Destaques
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
- Registado: 9/12/2013 13:12
Re: Fundos à la carte
As bolhas e a ebulição dos mercados podem queimar não os seus dedos mas a sua carteira. Lembre-se que o movimento dos mercados acionistas tem também correntes de convexão: a "energia calorífica" que faz subir as ações será progressivamente cada vez menos à medida que essas ações atingem sucessivos patamares elevados, e vai haver uma altura em que essa "energia" já não será suficiente para suportar a cotação sobreelevada das ações (margem de expansão nula) e então começa o movimento descendente de uma corrente de convexão (swing de densidades resultante da estratificação de temperaturas), a qual ao bater no fundo vai novamente poder receber a "energia calorífica" do "bico do fogão" do mercado que fará com que as ações tenham uma grande margem de progressão, começando a subir novamente.
Agora, para entender melhor as bolhas e as correntes de convexão no processo de ebulição dos "mercados culinários", veja a explicação técnica visualizadas nas 2 imagens seguintes:
Agora, para entender melhor as bolhas e as correntes de convexão no processo de ebulição dos "mercados culinários", veja a explicação técnica visualizadas nas 2 imagens seguintes:
- Capturar 2.JPG (89.22 KiB) Visualizado 8906 vezes
- Mensagens: 101
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Re: Fundos à la carte
Algumas das frases-citações de Eddy Elfenbein que são umas verdadeiras pérolas sobre mercados e investimento:
Good stocks can go down for no reason.
Bad stocks can go up for no reason.
The most important variable to the stock market, by far, is the direction of long-term interest rates.
A trend can last much longer than you thought possible.
Commodities are almost always terrible investments.
The stock market hates inflation. The only thing it hates more is deflation.
The best environment for stocks is a low stable inflation rate.
As an investment tool, P/E Ratios work much better for individual stocks than for the market as a whole.
The best three fundamental metrics are (in order) ROE, Debt Ratios and Cash Flow.
Portfolio diversity is overrated.
CAPM and MPT are nonsense.
No one can consistently time the market. No one.
The market really does “climb a wall of worry.”
The market isn’t efficient—it can be beaten. But it’s very, very, very, very hard.
A high P/E Ratio is much better sign of a stock to sell than a low P/E Ratio is a sign to buy.
Except at very low levels, volatility is neutral.
The worst investor in the world is the guy holding on to a small loss waiting for the rally because “they don’t want to take the loss.” The stock doesn’t know you own it.
It’s pointless to measure the stock market relative to gold or in euros or pork bellies or whatever else people can come up with.
Good stocks can go down for no reason.
Bad stocks can go up for no reason.
The most important variable to the stock market, by far, is the direction of long-term interest rates.
A trend can last much longer than you thought possible.
Commodities are almost always terrible investments.
The stock market hates inflation. The only thing it hates more is deflation.
The best environment for stocks is a low stable inflation rate.
As an investment tool, P/E Ratios work much better for individual stocks than for the market as a whole.
The best three fundamental metrics are (in order) ROE, Debt Ratios and Cash Flow.
Portfolio diversity is overrated.
CAPM and MPT are nonsense.
No one can consistently time the market. No one.
The market really does “climb a wall of worry.”
The market isn’t efficient—it can be beaten. But it’s very, very, very, very hard.
A high P/E Ratio is much better sign of a stock to sell than a low P/E Ratio is a sign to buy.
Except at very low levels, volatility is neutral.
The worst investor in the world is the guy holding on to a small loss waiting for the rally because “they don’t want to take the loss.” The stock doesn’t know you own it.
It’s pointless to measure the stock market relative to gold or in euros or pork bellies or whatever else people can come up with.
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
Bernstein: Passive Investing Is Worse for Society Than Marxism.
"A supposedly capitalist economy where the only investment is passive is worse than either a centrally planned economy or an economy with active market led capital management,” writes Fraser-Jenkins.
High fees and subpar returns, coupled with the creation of a plethora of relatively inexpensive exchange-traded funds that track major equity indexes have helped fuel a massive shift in asset flows away from active management in favor of passive. While policymakers are quick to praise the benefits of these low-cost options for retail investors, Bernstein argues that this is a short-sighted view that doesn't take into account the potential downsides involved with the increase in passively-managed assets.
Fraser-Jenkins notes that the rise of indexing should theoretically entail that stocks tend to move in the same direction more often (though such a simple relationship isn't necessarily borne out by the data), and cites research indicating that "if the correlation of stocks increases then that impedes the efficient allocation of capital. That is, there isn't as big of a difference in capital expenditures on a sector by sector basis than what would be expected based on relative profit growth.
The social function of active management, in a capitalist society, is that it seeks to direct capital to its most productive end, facilitating sustainable job creation and a rise in the aggregate standard of living. And rather than be guided by the Invisible Hand and profit motive, capital allocation under Marxism is conducted by an oh-so-visible hand aimed at producing use-values that satisfy each member of the society's needs. Seen through this lens, passive management is somewhat tantamount to a nihilistic approach to capital allocation.
"The commonality between both active market management and the Marxist approach is that in both cases there are a set of agents trying – at least in principle – to optimize the flows of capital in the real economy," writes Fraser-Jenkins.
While the question of whether the rise of passive investing is an existential threat to capitalism remains an open one, Bernstein's team acknowledges one uncomfortable truth: it certainly looms as a major downside risk for the livelihoods of people who produce sell side equity research.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... an-marxism
"A supposedly capitalist economy where the only investment is passive is worse than either a centrally planned economy or an economy with active market led capital management,” writes Fraser-Jenkins.
High fees and subpar returns, coupled with the creation of a plethora of relatively inexpensive exchange-traded funds that track major equity indexes have helped fuel a massive shift in asset flows away from active management in favor of passive. While policymakers are quick to praise the benefits of these low-cost options for retail investors, Bernstein argues that this is a short-sighted view that doesn't take into account the potential downsides involved with the increase in passively-managed assets.
Fraser-Jenkins notes that the rise of indexing should theoretically entail that stocks tend to move in the same direction more often (though such a simple relationship isn't necessarily borne out by the data), and cites research indicating that "if the correlation of stocks increases then that impedes the efficient allocation of capital. That is, there isn't as big of a difference in capital expenditures on a sector by sector basis than what would be expected based on relative profit growth.
The social function of active management, in a capitalist society, is that it seeks to direct capital to its most productive end, facilitating sustainable job creation and a rise in the aggregate standard of living. And rather than be guided by the Invisible Hand and profit motive, capital allocation under Marxism is conducted by an oh-so-visible hand aimed at producing use-values that satisfy each member of the society's needs. Seen through this lens, passive management is somewhat tantamount to a nihilistic approach to capital allocation.
"The commonality between both active market management and the Marxist approach is that in both cases there are a set of agents trying – at least in principle – to optimize the flows of capital in the real economy," writes Fraser-Jenkins.
While the question of whether the rise of passive investing is an existential threat to capitalism remains an open one, Bernstein's team acknowledges one uncomfortable truth: it certainly looms as a major downside risk for the livelihoods of people who produce sell side equity research.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... an-marxism
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Re: Fundos à la carte
O neurónio pode ser considerado a unidade básica da estrutura do cérebro e do sistema nervoso.
O sistema nervoso constitui uma rede de comunicações do organismo, composta por um conjunto de órgãos do corpo humano que possuem a função de captar as mensagens e estímulos do ambiente, interpretar essas mesmas captações e elaborar respostas, as quais podem ser traduzidas na forma de movimentos, sensações ou constatações.
Assim, como para se ter sucesso num qualquer processo de investimento é preciso perceber como funcionam os nossos neurónios e toda a sua rede de comunicações, aí vai um post sobre neurónios, do qual destaco alguns dos mimos do excelente artigo de Kevin Simler:
Neurons Gone Wild. By Kevin Simler
Neurons, selfish and feral.
In a recent Edge interview, Dan Dennett pitches the most fascinating new idea I've read in a long, long time: That our neurons are powerful computational building blocks in part because they've reverted to an older and slightly feral state.
Here's Dennett [1]:
Realize that every human cell in your body, including your neurons, is a direct descendent of eukaryotic cells that lived and fended for themselves, for about a billion years, as free-swimming, free-living little agents. They had to develop an awful lot of know-how and self-protective talent to do that. But when they joined forces to become multi-cellular creatures, they gave up a lot of that. They became, in effect, domesticated — part of larger, more monolithic organizations.
In general, we don't have to worry about our muscle cells rebelling against us. (When they do, we call it cancer.) But in the brain, I think, some little switch has been thrown in the genetics that, in effect, makes our neurons a little bit feral. It's like what happens when you let sheep or pigs go feral: they recover their wild talents very fast.
Maybe the neurons in our brains are not just capable, but motivated, to be more adventurous, exploratory, or risky in the way they live their lives. They're struggling amongst themselves for influence and for staying alive. As soon as that happens, you have room for cooperation, to create alliances, coalitions, cabals, etc.
Dennett traces this idea — of the "selfish" neuron — to computational neuroscientist Sebastian Seung. According to Seung and Dennett, it's precisely because of neuronal selfishness that the brain is able to "spontaneously reorganize itself in response to trauma or novel experiences."For example:
Mike Merzenich sutured a monkey's fingers together so that it didn't need as much cortex to represent two separate individual digits, and pretty soon the cortical regions that were representing those two digits shrank, making that part of the cortex available to use for other things. When the sutures were removed, the cortical regions soon resumed pretty much their earlier dimensions.
Or if you blindfold yourself for eight weeks, as Alvaro Pascual-Leone does in his experiments, you find that your visual cortex starts getting adapted for Braille, for haptic perception, for touch.
Why should these [idle] neurons be so eager to pitch in? Well, they're out of work. They're unemployed, and if you're unemployed, you're not getting your neuromodulators, so your receptors are going to start disappearing, and pretty soon you're going to be really out of work, and then you're going to die.
In other words, the selfishness of neurons incentivizes them to be useful — to hook up with the right network of their fellow neurons, which is itself hooked up with other networks (both 'up' and 'downstream'), all so they can keep earning their share of life-sustaining energy and raw materials.
Thus there is, in this view, an internal 'economy' in the brain, in which neurons must compete with each other for resources. This design stands in contrast to the standard, Von Neumann computer architecture, whose parts never have to worry about where their energy is coming from. Without resource contention, there's no need for selfishness. And this is, in part, why computers are less flexible and adaptable — less plastic — than brains.
http://www.meltingasphalt.com/neurons-gone-wild/
O sistema nervoso constitui uma rede de comunicações do organismo, composta por um conjunto de órgãos do corpo humano que possuem a função de captar as mensagens e estímulos do ambiente, interpretar essas mesmas captações e elaborar respostas, as quais podem ser traduzidas na forma de movimentos, sensações ou constatações.
Assim, como para se ter sucesso num qualquer processo de investimento é preciso perceber como funcionam os nossos neurónios e toda a sua rede de comunicações, aí vai um post sobre neurónios, do qual destaco alguns dos mimos do excelente artigo de Kevin Simler:
Neurons Gone Wild. By Kevin Simler
Neurons, selfish and feral.
In a recent Edge interview, Dan Dennett pitches the most fascinating new idea I've read in a long, long time: That our neurons are powerful computational building blocks in part because they've reverted to an older and slightly feral state.
Here's Dennett [1]:
Realize that every human cell in your body, including your neurons, is a direct descendent of eukaryotic cells that lived and fended for themselves, for about a billion years, as free-swimming, free-living little agents. They had to develop an awful lot of know-how and self-protective talent to do that. But when they joined forces to become multi-cellular creatures, they gave up a lot of that. They became, in effect, domesticated — part of larger, more monolithic organizations.
In general, we don't have to worry about our muscle cells rebelling against us. (When they do, we call it cancer.) But in the brain, I think, some little switch has been thrown in the genetics that, in effect, makes our neurons a little bit feral. It's like what happens when you let sheep or pigs go feral: they recover their wild talents very fast.
Maybe the neurons in our brains are not just capable, but motivated, to be more adventurous, exploratory, or risky in the way they live their lives. They're struggling amongst themselves for influence and for staying alive. As soon as that happens, you have room for cooperation, to create alliances, coalitions, cabals, etc.
Dennett traces this idea — of the "selfish" neuron — to computational neuroscientist Sebastian Seung. According to Seung and Dennett, it's precisely because of neuronal selfishness that the brain is able to "spontaneously reorganize itself in response to trauma or novel experiences."For example:
Mike Merzenich sutured a monkey's fingers together so that it didn't need as much cortex to represent two separate individual digits, and pretty soon the cortical regions that were representing those two digits shrank, making that part of the cortex available to use for other things. When the sutures were removed, the cortical regions soon resumed pretty much their earlier dimensions.
Or if you blindfold yourself for eight weeks, as Alvaro Pascual-Leone does in his experiments, you find that your visual cortex starts getting adapted for Braille, for haptic perception, for touch.
Why should these [idle] neurons be so eager to pitch in? Well, they're out of work. They're unemployed, and if you're unemployed, you're not getting your neuromodulators, so your receptors are going to start disappearing, and pretty soon you're going to be really out of work, and then you're going to die.
In other words, the selfishness of neurons incentivizes them to be useful — to hook up with the right network of their fellow neurons, which is itself hooked up with other networks (both 'up' and 'downstream'), all so they can keep earning their share of life-sustaining energy and raw materials.
Thus there is, in this view, an internal 'economy' in the brain, in which neurons must compete with each other for resources. This design stands in contrast to the standard, Von Neumann computer architecture, whose parts never have to worry about where their energy is coming from. Without resource contention, there's no need for selfishness. And this is, in part, why computers are less flexible and adaptable — less plastic — than brains.
http://www.meltingasphalt.com/neurons-gone-wild/
- Mensagens: 101
- Registado: 20/11/2016 15:31
Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 5.PNG (111.67 KiB) Visualizado 9011 vezes
- Capturar 6.PNG (117.31 KiB) Visualizado 9011 vezes
Fonte: Bespoke Investment Group
- Mensagens: 101
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Re: Fundos à la carte
Mais abaixo vou postar uma verdadeira lição de economia sobre o mundo moderno das novas tecnologias galopantes que estão a liquidar os velhos ou tradicionais empregos.
É bom refletirmos todos sobre o assunto e contrariar a exclusão de empregabilidade em que o criador (Homem) está a ser liquidado/desempregado pela sua criação (novas tecnologias).
As novas tecnologias devem servir para facilitar a vida ao Homem, aumentar a sua produtividade e desse modo deveria aumentar o tempo livre da classe trabalhadora, e não o contrário: aumento das horas de trabalho, como quer o Schäuble e os falcões pertencentes ao grupo do 1% que detém a riqueza equivalente aos restantes 99 % da população mundial, de modo a continuarem a alimentar vorazmente a sua riqueza à custa da classe trabalhadora e com o apoio das classes politica e jurídica que criam legislação, fiscalidade, regulação monetária e outras regulações/desregulações que favorecem sempre os mesmos: o grande poder económico-financeiro .
Technology, Not Trade or Regulations, Killed Manufacturing Jobs.
Manufacturing output is at an all-time high. Manufacturing employment is at a post-industrialization low. Deregulation, dollar devaluation and protectionist/isolationist policies will not resurrect manufacturing employment.
You might reasonably guess that manufacturing in the US is in a secular downtrend. It's not. Real output is at an all-time high (ATH). It has nearly doubled in the past 30 years.
Why then do we believe otherwise? The answer is manufacturing employment, which has been in a long term secular decline. Manufacturing employment peaked in 1979. Today, it is about half of those levels.
Increasing global trade is not the primary culprit in the decline in US manufacturing employment. Again, output is at an ATH. Manufacturing jobs have fallen with new technology and other means for increasing productivity. The number of employees needed to make the same output has more than halved in the past 30 years.
The US economy has not been driven by manufacturing employment in decades. In 1953, more than 30% of total employment was in manufacturing. Today, it is about 8%.
The downtrend in the importance of manufacturing employment is more than 70 years old. No amount of deregulation, dollar devaluation or protectionist/isolationist policies will resurrect employment in manufacturing industries.
As The Economist summarizes: The manufacturing employment downtrend predates the end of Bretton Woods. It predates the union-crushing, deregulating era of the late 1970s and early 1980s. It predates the era of Japanese dominance, the rise of the Asian tigers, and the recent surge in Chinese growth. A plunging dollar, a "get tough" approach to China, and an embrace of industrial policy won't reverse this trend.
The technology will continue to make old jobs obsolete. Truck driver is now the most common job in most states. Within the next decade, automated, self-driving vehicles are a distinct likelihood.
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.pt/2016/11/te ... tions.html
É bom refletirmos todos sobre o assunto e contrariar a exclusão de empregabilidade em que o criador (Homem) está a ser liquidado/desempregado pela sua criação (novas tecnologias).
As novas tecnologias devem servir para facilitar a vida ao Homem, aumentar a sua produtividade e desse modo deveria aumentar o tempo livre da classe trabalhadora, e não o contrário: aumento das horas de trabalho, como quer o Schäuble e os falcões pertencentes ao grupo do 1% que detém a riqueza equivalente aos restantes 99 % da população mundial, de modo a continuarem a alimentar vorazmente a sua riqueza à custa da classe trabalhadora e com o apoio das classes politica e jurídica que criam legislação, fiscalidade, regulação monetária e outras regulações/desregulações que favorecem sempre os mesmos: o grande poder económico-financeiro .
Technology, Not Trade or Regulations, Killed Manufacturing Jobs.
Manufacturing output is at an all-time high. Manufacturing employment is at a post-industrialization low. Deregulation, dollar devaluation and protectionist/isolationist policies will not resurrect manufacturing employment.
You might reasonably guess that manufacturing in the US is in a secular downtrend. It's not. Real output is at an all-time high (ATH). It has nearly doubled in the past 30 years.
- Capturar 1.PNG (40.61 KiB) Visualizado 9044 vezes
Why then do we believe otherwise? The answer is manufacturing employment, which has been in a long term secular decline. Manufacturing employment peaked in 1979. Today, it is about half of those levels.
- Capturar 2.PNG (55.22 KiB) Visualizado 9044 vezes
Increasing global trade is not the primary culprit in the decline in US manufacturing employment. Again, output is at an ATH. Manufacturing jobs have fallen with new technology and other means for increasing productivity. The number of employees needed to make the same output has more than halved in the past 30 years.
- Capturar 3.PNG (42.12 KiB) Visualizado 9044 vezes
The US economy has not been driven by manufacturing employment in decades. In 1953, more than 30% of total employment was in manufacturing. Today, it is about 8%.
- Capturar 4.PNG (49.95 KiB) Visualizado 9044 vezes
The downtrend in the importance of manufacturing employment is more than 70 years old. No amount of deregulation, dollar devaluation or protectionist/isolationist policies will resurrect employment in manufacturing industries.
As The Economist summarizes: The manufacturing employment downtrend predates the end of Bretton Woods. It predates the union-crushing, deregulating era of the late 1970s and early 1980s. It predates the era of Japanese dominance, the rise of the Asian tigers, and the recent surge in Chinese growth. A plunging dollar, a "get tough" approach to China, and an embrace of industrial policy won't reverse this trend.
The technology will continue to make old jobs obsolete. Truck driver is now the most common job in most states. Within the next decade, automated, self-driving vehicles are a distinct likelihood.
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.pt/2016/11/te ... tions.html
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Re: Fundos à la carte
PRUSSLC:LX
Equity Russia Opportunities
+57.04%
Equity Russia Opportunities
+57.04%
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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Re: Fundos à la carte
BCE alerta para potencial correcção "abrupta" nos mercados
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/mercados ... Principais
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/mercados ... Principais
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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- Mensagens: 1752
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Re: Fundos à la carte
Visualização gráfica dos resultados de investimentos no mercado de ações nos últimos 45 anos, considerando as seguintes 4 hipóteses:
Market timing:
- Não investido nos 25 melhores dias de retornos;
- Não investido nos 25 piores dias;
- Não investido em ambos os 25 melhores e piores dias.
Buy-and-hold: investido em todos os dias do período temporal considerado.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-mi ... 2016-01-25
Market timing:
- Não investido nos 25 melhores dias de retornos;
- Não investido nos 25 piores dias;
- Não investido em ambos os 25 melhores e piores dias.
Buy-and-hold: investido em todos os dias do período temporal considerado.
- Capturar 1.PNG (106.98 KiB) Visualizado 9165 vezes
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-mi ... 2016-01-25
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Re: Fundos à la carte
Grande frase:
"We often think of a strong market as one in which many stocks are making new highs. Interestingly, a better indication of market strength has been the absence of weakness: few stocks making new lows." - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
https://www.blogger.com/profile/11988667917563876202
"We often think of a strong market as one in which many stocks are making new highs. Interestingly, a better indication of market strength has been the absence of weakness: few stocks making new lows." - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.
https://www.blogger.com/profile/11988667917563876202
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Re: Fundos à la carte
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- Mensagens: 101
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Re: Fundos à la carte
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Re: Fundos à la carte
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- Mensagens: 101
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Re: Fundos à la carte
- Capturar 1.PNG (130.69 KiB) Visualizado 9299 vezes
- Mensagens: 101
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Re: Fundos à la carte
Já reduzi bonds europeias e aumentar nas acções europeias...
Não há bem que sempre dure, nem mal que nunca acabe
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Re: Fundos à la carte
There is zero evidence of a long-term correlation between stocks and the dólar.
http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/11/21 ... he-dollar/
http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/11/21 ... he-dollar/
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Re: Fundos à la carte
US Junk Bonds Rebounded Last Week.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-junk ... last-week/
- Capturar 1.PNG (86.34 KiB) Visualizado 9452 vezes
- Capturar 2.PNG (90.35 KiB) Visualizado 9452 vezes
http://www.capitalspectator.com/us-junk ... last-week/
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Re: Fundos à la carte
ARGENTINA AND VIETNAM—NEXT IN LINE?
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... ket-stocks
- Capturar 1.PNG (31.63 KiB) Visualizado 9524 vezes
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... ket-stocks
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Re: Fundos à la carte
The Trump Effect on Markets: A Financial (not a Political) Analysis!
The Value Effect.
The value of stocks collectively can be written as a function of three key inputs: the cash flows from existing investment, the expected growth in earnings and cash flows and the required return on stocks (composed of a risk free rate and a price for risk). The following figure looks at the possible ways in which the Trump presidency can affect value:
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.pt/2016 ... ncial.html
The Value Effect.
The value of stocks collectively can be written as a function of three key inputs: the cash flows from existing investment, the expected growth in earnings and cash flows and the required return on stocks (composed of a risk free rate and a price for risk). The following figure looks at the possible ways in which the Trump presidency can affect value:
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.pt/2016 ... ncial.html
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Re: Fundos à la carte
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