IAG e Air France reiteram interesse na TAP. Lufthansa em silêncio

[Dwer]

Look to stay on the Buy Side as we are rolling into a new Buy Mode. Lower early price moves favor higher prices. If we move higher early today and prices "hang up" near the highs expect a sell off later in the session.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, March 12, 2004:
1) Buy 1109.25/ Sell 1115.25 +6pts. (Buy BreakDown)

2) Buy 1112.25/ Sell 1115.25 +3pts. (early TB 3rd level lower before B/D hit) *

* Note: This early TB trade would have been stopped out and re-entered long at the BreakDown for a 1-2 pts. loss off early resistance higher/ Re-entry shown as first trade.

Total: Up to +6 pts.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.

Friday put on a good showing to the upside as we had expected in our Headline Call. We were looking ideally for lower early prices before an upmove but instead got a +5pts. gap up on the opening which barely pulled back before moving higher.

The B/D at 1109.25 and the B/D Hour One pivot at 1115.25 were fairly close together and with the Dow up substantially at the time of the BreakOut it would have been sharp to look to take profits near there.

What we are seeing now, at least on this last few days of volatility, is the larger point TCF setups working a bit. The difficulty is that the High Five are not correlating as accurately to what we have shown in the Trading Handbook but we do now need to consider looking to hold out longer for some larger profits on these setups now.

We will continue as we have been doing to use the Trailblazer setups to enter the Hour One and Buy/Sell pivots and also consider the reflex volatility moves after the 3rd level move in favor of the position. This is what is starting to setup as being the ideal way to trade right now.

The last few months have been treacherous for traders with tight ranges and low volatility. We have seen SOME improvement in the ranges and volatility along with the TCF setups off the special numbers we show each day.

The key to seeing the TCF Handbook trades work out consistently is to see 10 day average ranges of +12 points or higher. The higher the better for the 8 pt. type trades we are used to holding out for.

Be looking to hold out for the larger scale moves now as we see if these current ranges can hold up.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are now, according to our underlying short term Market Force indicators, rolling to a new Buy Mode. There may still be some more bottoming action that we will see as the convinced bears still keep trying to ram the rallies lower but it appears a bottom has been put in.

Today will be important to see if the Market Weather is changing. Friday gave us some hints of this.

We talked about the Market Weather and the day to day sequencing patterns at my recent seminar in DelRay Beach, Florida. Many of you who were there can now see this pattern unfolding. I will be having another seminar on April 26-30 where we will again TRADE LIVE and watch the new Trailblazer patterns in real time. We had some great success at our last seminar with several large traders tell us they made over 50,000$ in their accounts on our our Tuesday session using or signals. If you are interested in taking your trading of our Morning Call methods to the next level call our office and join us in April. Call (800) 806-4801 for details.

We are looking for the markets to stay bullish with a special pattern setup we will be watching for today.

If the markets open lower and run lower FIRST we expect prices to push higher again today.

If we see the markets rally right off the opening 30 minutes or so and "hang up" near the highs most of the early session we expect the market will sell off later in the session.

The way the market reacts to the OPENING PRICE and the closing price in relation to where they opened and the lows will give us much important information.

In the meantime we would want to trade the action today and here is what we would look for:

We will be on the lookout for a BULLISH BREAKOUT BUY today as a good possibility. With this we would want to see a Flat Dow (means under +50 points or less but now down -20 points or more) at the time of the B/O with NAZ strong and leading the way being up +12-15 or more. We would look for a lower TRIN below .80 and VXO down too (this can be compared with VIX for a double view of that overall indicator.)

If the Dow is higher from an early rally especially with an up opening then we want to be careful to look for a weaker NAZ below +12 and higher TRIN and VIX to look to short the BreakOut later in the session.

Value Area: 1,112.70 - 1,118.30
Holding above 1118.30 especially after pulling back towards the lower VA area (also Buy Pivot target) EARLY will be a bullish sign.

Remember, an early rally that "hangs up" will most likely sell off later in the session.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,111.25 - 1,112.25
Let's look for Trailblazer formations around this zone early on a LOWER OPENING for a buy.

We are expecting the BreakOut to be the first Hour One pivot hit today so if they run down here early there is a good chance they will take off to the upside before seeing the BreakDown get hit. Worth a shot.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,122.50 - 1,121.50
No trade at this pivot today but compare this price zone and the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1126.75 with the BreakOut and see if they are breaking 0ut bullish or resisting based on the criteria given above. If they are Breaking Out lower then you can use the higher numbers here at the 1126 area as an important pivot point for resistance or a move through on the way higher.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,139.30
We still got a stretch back up to the Pit Bull and therefore are still in a "Sell Rallies" mind set.

This essentially means that we are right now looking to buy lower drops but if we get a strong rally attempt we still want to stay on the sell side of that move as the rollover to the new Buy Mode shapes up.

Pro Trader's Action
We are now looking for a bottom to be forming and the new Buy Mode to start kicking in. Sometimes we get a preliminary alert for this that is a bit too early but we want to be more inclined to favor the buy side. Unless it's proven wrong we expect a bottom may have formed in the 1105.00 area.

That now is a crucial number to be watching for any drops to get bought up from. We still may be seeing pullbacks like the one we are calling for today on a higher open and early rally that "hangs up" but the idea is that there is a bottom that has formed and the direction going forward will be upwards.

Let's see how that starts panning out.

For today I've given you clear instructions on what we plan to do so let's just work the numbers and the chart patterns to make some dough$.

Are we out of the woods and heading back to seeing the regular 8 point TCF setups start occuring regularly again? Not sure. Don't get too excited yet. The High Five are still acting strange in relation to those larger scale TCF setups but we want to be looking for those to more or less start working out again soon and holding out for the larger moves.

Good luck with your trades today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan