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ECONOMIC REPORT: Durable goods orders a mixed bag
Transportation orders plunge; core capital goods robust
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:34 AM ET Feb. 26, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A big drop in orders for new airplanes and vehicles in January masked signs of stronger demand in the United States for core capital investment goods, according to Commerce Department estimates released Thursday.

New orders for durable goods fell 1.8 percent in January, far short of the 1.5 percent gain expected by Wall Street economists. Excluding the 10.4 percent drop in transportation orders, durable orders were up 2 percent.

December's durable orders were revised higher yet again to show a 1.6 percent increase, ahead of the flat original estimate and the first revision to a 0.3 percent gain.

Durable goods orders are a key leading indicator of U.S. economic activity, but the monthly numbers are very volatile and prone to large revisions.

Orders for core capital goods - which exclude both civilian aircraft and defense goods - rose 3.6 percent in January after a 3.8 percent gain in December. Core capital orders are up 12.9 percent year-to-date.

Core capital goods orders reflect demand for investment goods needed by firms to expand their production or replace obsolete equipment.

Shipments of durable goods were flat in January. Inventories rose 0.1 percent. Unfilled orders fell 0.1 percent.

Most sectors showed higher demand in January.

Orders for computers and electronics gained 7.1 percent, including a 73.3 percent increase in communications equipment following two months of large declines. Shipments of electronics rose 2.2 percent, including a 6 percent increase in semiconductors.

Demand for metals strengthened. Orders for primary metals rose 2.5 percent, while orders for fabricated metals increased 2.4 percent.

Orders for electrical goods increased 3.7 percent.

On the weak side, however, orders for machinery fell 1.9 percent after a large increase in December.

The weakest sector was transportation, which tends to be very volatile. Orders plunged 10.4 percent, the biggest drop since September 2002. Civilian aircraft orders sank 27.9 percent after a similar-sized increase in December. Defense aircraft orders plunged 34 percent.

Orders for motor vehicles dropped 5.1 percent, the largest decline since August.

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8:31am 02/26/04 STOCK FUTURES DIP ON DATA, BUT REMAIN POSITIVE
8:32am 02/26/04 MARCH S&P FUTURES UP 0.30 AT 1,143.30
8:32am 02/26/04 MARCH NASDAQ 100 FUTURES FLAT AT 1,472.00
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. JAN. DURABLE ORDERS MISS EXPECTATION OF 1.5% GAIN
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVERAGE JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 2,750 TO 354,750
8:31am 02/26/04 U.S. 4-WEEK AVERAGE JOBLESS CLAIMS HIGHEST SINCE DEC.
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. JAN. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS OFF 1.8%
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 6,000 TO 350,000
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. DEC. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS REVISED TO 1.5% VS. 0.3%
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. JAN. TRANSPORTATION ORDERS PLUNGE 10.4%
8:30am 02/26/04 U.S. JAN. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 3.6%

U.S. durables orders plunge on transportation goods
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - A big drop in orders for new airplanes and vehicles in January masked signs of stronger demand in the U.S. for core capital investment goods, according to Commerce Department estimates released Thursday.
New orders for durable goods fell 1.8 percent in January, far short of the 1.5 percent gain expected by Wall Street economists. Excluding the 10.4 percent drop in transportation orders, durable orders were up 2 percent.
December's durable orders were revised higher to show a 1.6 percent increase.
Orders for core capital goods rose 3.6 percent in January after a 3.8 percent gain in December.
Shipments of durable goods were flat. Inventories rose 0.1 percent. Unfilled orders fell 0.1 percent.