Pensões em Portugal são das que mais vão consumir receita

[Dwer]

Sell off expected to occur today. Look for market to open flat to higher and stall near the highs for signs of later day lower prices. If an early, fast drop occurs then support will come in and prices will gradually stabalize in the middle of the days range.

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, February 10, 2004:
Sell 1145.00/ Cover 1142.00 for up to +3.00pts.

*Sell the area above the Sell Pivot target approaching resistance at 1146.50 as outlined in Tuesday's briefing.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

Although Greenspan will be speaking today we want to look to get on the short side using our combined TCF Trading setups.

The Headline Call explains what we will be looking for and I will give you more details on that below.

Our Headline Call for Tuesday was for Higher prices off of a flat to lower opening which is exactly what we got. The opening just below Monday's 1139.90 close shot up early and prices held up near the highs most of the session.

Later we looked for a trade that would move above the Sell Pivot Target but did not cross over the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1146.50. We were also looking for the important 1142.00 to still be a formidable upside resistance zone.

We got short in the 1145.00 area just before the Cut off time for general TCF setups and saw the market collapse quickly right after our entry down to the 1140.00 area just above the BreakOut at 1141.00.

Due to the highly mixed and contrary High Five readings it was important to scalp out of that fast move lower. It was just too fast and too extreme.

In line with our Market Force indicators the prices rose out of the quick sell off and pressed higher again closing near the upper third of the day's range.

There were no clear Trailblazer signals on Tuesday. High Five was mixed all day with no clear indication of a bullish or bearish one sided reading.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to go in today and try to get short but we also need to be careful with the Greenspan remarks.

The key will be to see how they open and trade in the first 30 minutes or so. If we get the prices hanging up near the highs then we should be able to find a spot just above the BreakOut or the Sell Pivot target to short.

Ideally we would want to see the High Five match the bearish, selling idea and not so mixed like Tuesday.

If we do not get such a setup as described here we would probably want to be more willing to stand aside.

Just remember not to force a trade and try and get short in a rally that shows a 3 level Trailblazer move. If we get these ingredients all together then try and hold short for a bigger picture lower move. Lately we have been quite happy to scalp for 3 to 4 to 6 points but this could be a bigger move.

If we get short and prices stall hanging on every word of Greenspan then prepare for a nervous trade but it could be worth the wait.

Value Area: 1,141.20 - 1,145.60
The Value Area is now in the exact zone we are looking at to fail IF we are going to move back strongly into the Sell Mode.

I expect this will be the case today. Otherwise trade holding above the top of the VA will put the Sell Mode we are in within an aberration and prices should rise again to test the Highs of 1155.00 area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,138.25 - 1,139.25
No Trade at this target today but watch for support at the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1134.00.

Trade moving below 1134.00 is solidly back to bearish as we would then be approaching the Pit Bull.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,147.25 - 1,146.25
Continue to look for short trades just above this area. Expect 1151.50 to hold back the buying (+4.25 stop/pivot). This is a similar stategy as we outlined here today for Tuesday's action.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,132.90
If we get the expected drop then we should be close to moving lower to challenge this Pit Bull number. That would be a pretty decent drop for today and would probably be associated with Greenspans remarks about the economic situation.

Pro Trader's Action
Today is not an FOMC meeting announcing interest rates and even so normally we would stand aside on any day where Greenspan is speaking.

Today, however, we are going to see if we can get on the short side like Tuesday as we are getting Market Force signals for lower move today and would like to be part of that if it pans out.

Focus on the BreakOut and the Sell Pivot Target to find a spot to get short. Use the Trailblazer readings to get in this trade and look to hold short for a larger scale sell off it it pans out. Also let's see if we can get the High Five backing up the short and we should have a good position.

An early, fast drop is going to change the pattern so be aware of that.

Good luck today with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan