Wall Street fecha semana sem rumo. Grandes tecnológicas pressionam

[Ulisses Pereira]

Deixo aqui uma perspectiva interessante do Gary Smith, analista técnico do www.realmoney.com:

"Now we know that after a particular stock makes a strong move up, it needs time to digest that move, usually by moving sideways. In fact, we've also seen this on the indices, as they tend to bolt up and then consolidate those gains.

This is never more apparent than on a long-term chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. You can see the move up from post-World War II until the mid-'60s, and then nearly 15 years of zero net gains. That sounds like an eternity, but on the chart below, it all looks normal.

Now, look at the move we had from 1982 to 2000 -- almost the same length of time as the previous mega-bull market. It now appears we're starting on the same sideways path that marked 1966 to 1982. So if we started digesting in 2000 and history repeats or even rhymes, then we're likely to go through this up-down, no-net-gain market until ... 2015. That's right, my long-term forecast: no new highs on any index until I have grandkids.

That leaves us with one question: Could you have made money from '66 to '82? Yes, I think so, as some of my backtested models showed my style would have been positive at least in the second half of that time period. The reason? While we moved sideways, the trends were long enough -- both up and down -- to trade in. "

(in www.realmoney.com)