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[Ulisses Pereira]

"Big Tech Dreams Won't Be Realized"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
02/05/2004 08:25 AM EST



"Let's make some sense about what's really happening in tech land. We got too enthused about everything. We extrapolated all of the good -- Nortel's (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) comeback, Juniper's (JNPR:Nasdaq - commentary - research) blowout quarter, Broadcom's (BRCM:Nasdaq - commentary - research) remarkable comeback -- into a thesis that all was well.

We took budget-flush spending and decided that it had to continue through 2004, as oxymoronic as that is. We figured that demand for everything from PCs to flat-panel display screens would increase, not decrease or stall, which is what has happened.


We did all of this because we wanted to believe that the Nasdaq was going right to 2500 -- heck, it still might get there, but not at the pace we had it going -- and because it was so much fun to make quick money.

Now the hangover from the party's on, and suddenly it looks like we can't ever have fun again. Now Cisco's (CSCO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) going back to $18. Now we are thinking, heck, Juniper's had its great quarter; fuhgeddaboutit. Now we're thinking wireline and wireless aren't growing.

My suggestion to those who feel the hangover is to take a couple of aspirin and listen up. Cisco's not going away; it will fix its problems and enterprise will turn up. I'm sure that sometime in March we'll hear rumblings how things have gotten better there.

Nortel, Lucent (LU:NYSE - commentary - research), Corning (GLW:NYSE - commentary - research) and the rest of the single-digit midgets deserve to be somewhere higher than they were last year. But we don't know how high until we have more information, and no one has that. So they are leap-of-faith stocks for the moment. I think Nortel still can climb, but we're in a real holding pattern for now.

Sometimes what's best is to remember that there are winners, and to buy the winners when they get sold down with the newfound losers. Broadcom and Juniper both were selling off with Cisco Wednesday.

But what's even better than that is a recognition that technology may not be the strongest sector in 2004, and that a repeat of last year's fourth quarter is simply out of the question right now. "

(in www.realmoney.com)