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Mohan 30/01/04

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Mohan 30/01/04

por Dwer » 30/1/2004 10:59

Market to push higher today but look for selling below 1139.50 (Pit Bull) and 1145.00 zone. CAUTION: Friday's after 2 days of volatility tend to be good stand aside days.

Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, January 29, 2004:
Market hit BreakDown at 1126.00 and barely held a 6 point stop by 3 ticks.

Because we have been playing defense in these tight ranges some of you may have gotten stopped out with a tighter stop and some may have gotten in lower and held for some points on the long side.

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining us.

Today was an important day in seeing the ranges open up, the volatility and finally seeing the TCF setups come into play like before. Although it was very close (there is a lot of luck in this trading business) the 6 point stop held by 3 ticks.

Now a lot of you (including me) have been cutting the stops back some due to the tight ranges and the lack of volatility not seeing the TCF setups pan out as frequently. We have been suggesting tightening stops for about 2 weeks now and it has saved us some dough$ on the TCF setups that were not holding their ground. This has been a difficult last 2 months with many pro trader systems I've talked to handing their head to them. A very tough period.

Are we out of the Fog yet? It's too early to say but it is possible. TODAY WILL GIVE US MORE CLUES. There is definitely an "arm wrestling match" between the bulls and the bears going on now ...and that is good for the TCF setups.

Let's see how this pans out today. I am willing to stand aside today and see what happens.

So for Thursday's action, we saw the market drop down early and create the Hour One pivots. The High Five were doing their usual odd arrangement with the Dow up but with the other indexes giving bearish clues. The problem with this lately if you have been really paying attention is that we have had some big rallies on very bearish High Five readings. The Dow was anxious to be the solo star again 3 hours into trading which lately has been a clue for a rally.

Right off the BreakDown the market rallied to 1129.00 after some of you (including me) go long at the BreakDown. I was hopeful for a move to 1132.00 to scalp 6 points but No Cigar.

Prices came back and RALLIED OFF OF 1126 for over 2 hours more pushing 1129.00.

Then exactly at the 1:00 est candle the market started dropping in a beautiful Trailblazer move lower popping the lows below 1126.00 RIGHT NEAR THE CUT OFF TIME FOR TCF SETUPS.

This is why I noted on the chart that some of you may have stood aside and never got in the trade. It wasn't until over 20 minutes after the cut off period for TCF setups that the market finished off the Trailblazer 3 level lower pattern and rallied all the way back to 1128.00.

Prices stalled there between 1125 and 1128.50 before busting out to 1132-34.00 on the highs.

Those of you (like me) who got in, expected higher prices but played defense cutting the stop on the nose dive after the TCF cut off time had a frustrating time seeing the prices rally.

Look, if you want to be succesful in futures trading you have to be extremely MATURE and realize that emotional and risk control are going to be the greatest factors as you swim these waters everyday. These markets are not for wimps and you will see stuff like this happen many times in your career. That is just the way the mop flops in this business.

We had been playing defense and cutting our stops, we repeated that action on Thursday and the markets took off WAY LATER IN THE SESSION. Decisions have to be made and most of you who are reading our briefings carefully KNOW we have been cutting the stops and playing defense.

Perhaps the markets have opened up as of today and maybe they will go back into hibernation with tight ranges up to election time. We shall see and may know more today.

Be sure to study the Trailblazer 3 level drop that started on the 1:05 est candle and carried into the spike lower candle at 1:50est. Use your one minute candle charts and the 9 and 18 SMA Trailblazer lines to see the action.


Today's Call & Briefing:
We are looking for early higher prices up to 1139-1145 zone but with pullbacks off of those. We recommend standing aside today after 2 days of volatility and today being Friday.

Today is part of an LSS pattern that I have identified and allows me to make crystal clear Headline Calls with great accuracy unlike any other advisory in the stock market history.

I am working now on a retool for our site in order to play additional defense and hone in the more profitable days. If you are paying strict attention to our recent briefings you can see that the Trailblazer pattern is AWESOME. It is my gift to you and will assist us in nailing trades with more precision. It will give us clues as to when a move is over and will help us to enter trades with more accuracy.

The LSS Pattern day is called the Buy/Sell rally day and I am going to be suggesting that we stand aside from trading on these days. I will notify you of these days in the Headline Call and you can decide if you want to trade it or not. My research shows that these days are simply more of a "decision" type day for the market and the better and more accurate trades are made on other Clear LSS days.

So look for this information soon on our new "Trading Handbook Re-tool" section which will be dated with all recent retools including the Trailblazer method.

So there are no recommmended TCF Trade setups to watch for today. Overall we want to stay on the sell side of the market as we have entered a Sell Mode which will most likely last until a trip down to 1112.00 price area.

Value Area: 1,124.50 - 1,130.90
Watch this area for support. Trade that pulls back early into this zone should catch support and move higher until later in the day. We would then expect weakness into the close if that is what occurs first (finding support in the VA).

Buy Pivot Target: 1,123.00 - 1,124.00
No Trade at this pivot today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,135.50 - 1,134.50
Prices will probably hold the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1139.75 which is also the Pit Bull but big resistance comes in at 1145.00.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,139.50
First level resistance here at the Pit Bull. We are in a Sell Rallies mode below the Bull so look to sell em.

Pro Trader's Action
This has been a longer than usual briefing as I wanted to make sure you understand how the Trailblazer Level 3 panned out today, how it was very late in the session panning out past the Cut off time and how the markets were very tricky today in fufilling our Headline Call.

Let's stand aside today and see if the ranges and volatility continue keeping an eye on any BreakOuts selling off after attempting to rally up to the 1139-45 area.

Good luck and all the best of success. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer

There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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