Só imigração fez subir mão de obra. Contributo foi dos maiores da UE

[Dwer]

No Headline Call today due to final day of FOMC meeting.

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, January 27, 2004:
Buy at 1151.00 or lower. Trade stopped out for up to -6 pts. depending on entry.

* Buy BreakDown with absence of Bear Ugly news and neutral/Bearish High Five.

2nd Trade using the Trailblazer Setup buying the 1143-44 zone saw a nice run up to 1147.00 which was the previous consolidation level of the 3rd level selloff. When the 3rd level gets extended you can trade at any new long, spike bars beyond that 3rd level. Use a tight stop of 3.75 or less and look for 3-5 points. Trade produced up to +3.50 points.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's "Morning Call".

Today the FOMC completes their scheduled 2 day meeting and various announcements are expected. On these FOMC interest announcement days we abstain from trading due to possible erratic movements associated with the announcements.

Well, they smacked the markets pretty hard on Tuesday and knocked em through initial support around the 1147.00 area.

It was another odd day on the High Five as we had a lower TRIN with the NAZ was also not in too bad a shape at the time of the BreakDown so we bought the move according to our system. Looking back I would have rather waited as the VXO was pretty high (over.50) and there was just an ominous feeling about the markets.

Some of you got in lower than 1151.00 and took less of a loss on the stop. As things got heavy to the downside it was clear they were going to get hammered today.

Here is the Trailblazer Pattern you should look for: The "3 levels lower" aspect is clear on the above 5 minute charts but I want you to go into your one minute charts and really get the details. You should be trading these S&P500 electric cars with a one minute candlestick chart if you want to really follow our work.

I have introduced the Trailblazer Setup in order to give you new clarity into our work and also to allow us to scalp the appropriate amount of points as they show up in our TB setup.

First, there was the CROSSOVER of the 9 and 18 SMA lines at 10:26est. Go to your charts and put the cursor on that candle.

Note: If your charting system does not accomodate you getting EXACT prices of the H/L/O/and C of the candle then you need to upgrade to a better system. If you are astute with computer programs you can use an upgraded www.quote.com program with Erlanger Quote for great detailed charts.

For a more simple user friendly program check out www.money.net and get their Live charts program for the Emini S&P500. Esignal also has excellent service. If you want to use our Morning Call briefings you HAVE TO GO PRO AND GET THE BEST CHARTS FOR THE EMINI.

Next, you will notice the FIRST LEVEL Sell off at 10:39 at 1153.25, 2nd level sell off at 11:14est to 1150.00, and 3rd level sell off at 11:27 to 1049.00 Check this out in detail on the charts. Notice the consolidation periods between these numbers.

I realize it is a small range but that was the first through third level selloffs. At 12:02 est the market dropped dramatically down to 1144.50 on the low of the longest candle....Do you see that. Yikes, the High Five was Bear Ugly at that point and if you tried to get long on the BreakDown at those lower levels you got stopped out for just a few points.

The key is that you did the right thing according to our TCF system. Getting stopped out is part of trading the S&P500. You definitely have to get used to that to trade an account up over time.

Lately too we have been playing defense BIG TIME so any reduction of the stop level would have been an OK idea.

Now here is the key: Once that market caved in like that down to 1144.50 and we saw LONG EXTENDED RED CANDLES GOING LOWER that was the key to BUY AGAIN. Yes, right there in the 1143-44.00 area. The goal would have been 3 points or so right to the previous consolidation area. Prices hit there, backed off and went lower later into the close around 1142.00 so there should have been a slight profit or if you saw what was going on you could have grabbed 3 points.

Obviously if you got short up at the BreakDown you had a nice day but we did not have a setup for going short the BreakDown minus any strong, Bear Ugly news. That's the way it goes once in a while...you miss something or get stopped out following your system.

The day ended with the market channelling lower in a Washout type of down day. We had been looking for this washout on Monday as we had the setup for it but Tuesday turned out to be one of the notorious "Sneak Down Bear Ugly" days you have heard me talk about before.

Today's Call & Briefing:
No Call or briefing today due to FOMC meeting.

Bias is bearish however and early, hard squash lower in prices should find support. Look for sets of -1000 TICKS for a bottoming process along with the spike lower candles associated with the Trailblazer setup.

Value Area: 1,142.20 - 1,150.10
Watch for trade below 1142.00 to climb back up into the Value Area and tweak the overloaded Bears. We are still expecting more washout but if they go lower early today they will get picked up from the lows.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,138.50 - 1,139.50
No trade at this target today. Good support to come in at 1134.25 if they run em down that low.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,150.25 - 1,149.25
No trade at this target today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,138.80
We are getting close to CROSSOVER of the Pit Bull to the Bearish side. Good chance of support coming in here today.

Pro Trader's Action
Let's take the FOMC meeting day off and do some research of the Trailblazer patterns. Things should just get suspended until any important announcements come out.

I don't think we will miss anything significant and if we do it's no big deal.

It appears we are finally getting back to setting the stage for a true wrestling match in the markets which would get our TCF setups working better.

You have to remember that there are always going to be periods like this where the market moves in one direction and there is very little real trading.

During those periods Professional traders who have developed proven systems have to TRADE DEFENSE and stay in the game. There is no use in squabbling about profits but the key is to keep trying to make profits but REALIZE that you are in a different market environment.

The beginners who absolutely do not understand futures trading or the markets think that somehow you are "supposed to make profits all year long". Tell that to a Farmer, or a Car salesman during the winter in Wisconsin, or the computer salesman during a turndown period in the industry. It is the same with markets and proven systems. To everything there is a season. I have been using the TCF Trade setups for almost 7 years now and they have always worked just like you have seen either live or in the archives. However, there are short periods of time every year or so where the market gets what I call "convoluted" and things freeze up. A good, proven system at that point will kick in and preserve profits perhaps even with a small drawdown but still will live to trade WHEN THE MARKETS START TRADING AGAIN.

After today I think that time may be upon us again to see some good push and pull Bears against bulls trading again soon. Hey, even these rediculously small ranges appear to be opening up. Time to harvest may be here sooner than we think.

Talk to you on Thursday's action. Mohan