Escalada do preço das casas bate subidas do Leste europeu

[Dwer]

Market has lower to go. Look to sell rallies again today especially on a higher opening and early move up in prices.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, January 23, 2004:
Sell 1148.75/1149.25 MIT ...Cover for up to +8 points

*Sell the Sell Pivot target/ BreakOut Hour One pivot zone and cover holding short as the market melts down in a Trailblazer 3 level down pattern.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and we hope you had a nice weekend.

I put out a special ASK MOHAN post this weekend to introduce you more to the New Trailblazer TCF Setup that we are going to be working with extensively from this day forth. We are expecting to have the updated section on the site this week with the listing of any re-tools to the TCF setups or Handbook that we do along with the full Trailblazer report. Please be sure to read my latest "Ask Mohan" report to get up to speed on these developments.

The market finally started trading a bit on Friday and opening up the ranges somewhat. The early rise in prices to hit the Sell Pivot target and then the BreakOut at 1149.25 after the first hour were the best clues for getting short.

We had also elaborated in our briefing for Friday and the Headline Call on reasons for being on the short side.

After the BreakOut was hit the prices moved solidly lower as the High Five began to erode. At least as far as the Friday action goes it appears we have broken the odd "strait up" pattern in which we hardly saw any pullbacks.

In fact, here is a bit of serious trivia for you: As of January 21st 2004 the S&P500 has run a string of 216 trading sessions without a 5% correction. The longest run was 404 sessions without a 5% pullback which took place between 5/2/95 and 7/12/96.

So if we have broken this run as of Friday then hopefully we can get back to seeing the markets start trading in more of a push and pull fashion regardless of whether they go up or down long term. I am still longer term bullish looking out over the next year or so but expecting the usual scarry pullbacks along the way.

So we got short up in the zone described above and saw prices pullback in a classic TCF Trailblazer type pattern which was stretched out over a longer time frame period and is clearly visible on the 5 minute chart above.

With our new approach using the Trailblazer "Too Far Away" spike candles or the spike candles following a "3rd level move" completion you can see the first liquidation occuring around the 1140-41 area. This is where we chose to cover also because we had around 7-8 points in hand and the way this market has been lately didn't want to see that evaporate in one of those late afternoon rallies again.

So on balance, a decent trading day coupled with the hope that with such price action as seen we will get back into a more extended range, volatile period of action. This would be perfect and right in time to greet our New Trailblazer Setup which will rock in such an environment while also giving us extra trade clarity.

Today's Call & Briefing:
On our Headline Call for today we are expecting lower prices to continue.

If we are going to continue to head lower as our 18 proprietary TCF Market Force indicators are suggesting then we would ideally look for the S&P500 to open flat to slightly higher and move up early today. This would create a favorable environment for the lower action.

I listed this as a confirming condition in the Headline Call but even with a slightly lower open and early move down IF we do get a rally off of that fairly early then prices could continue to crumble after the New York Lunch period.

What we mainly want to watch for now is a "Weather Change" in the markets environment. What I mean by this is that we have been in a bullish pattern where we get the lower early moves and the gradual rise into the upper third of the range on the close.

The bearish short term "Weather" pattern is the opposite IE: slightly higher openings, a tendency to rally early and then fizzle out towards the lower third of the range in the closing 2 hours. I hope you realize how valuable these last 2 sentences are. Once you learn to read the markets bias using this simple formula it will add tremendous clarity to your trading.

So let's be on the lookout for a shift in the pattern to bearish and also be ready to sell rallies again.

If we get the lower opening and early panic run lower then we are still going to do some more work to the upside for today. We are getting near some strong support levels and if they blow through them to the downside we will have more evidence of a lower move which would take us to our original goal of around 1101.00 on the S&P500 futures. I had given you the support numbers heading lower on Wednesday's Morning Call briefing which is instantly available to subscribers on the website under "Morning Call Archives".

TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We will want to be on the lookout for a possible Bear Ugly market situation today that would drive prices lower with some surprising bad news. Although this is NOT expected the environment to rig the markets with one of these days is ripe.

If this does not occur then we will be on the lookout to BUY the BreakDown if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. We would be looking for a Trailblazer pattern where we see liquidation going into the BreakDown especially if the High Five are bearish and we would ideally want to subtract 2-4 points.

Gradually we will get into these Trialblazer ideas more and more this week. I am just going to step up and start talking about them right away on today's briefing. Just read the new Ask Mohan report I wrote, set up your charts as suggested, and over the next few days you will be getting the method down as you watch your one minute Candlestick charts with the 9 and 18 period SMA (simple moving average) lines on them.

More on the Buy/Sell Pivots below.

Value Area: 1,135.30 - 1,145.00
The Value Area was filled and prices pushed below it on Friday under 1142.00 which was a bearish sign.

Today we will be looking for 1135.00 to get tested again with either continued erosion or some support coming in. The Pit Bull is just below that so there should be some clear signs at that price level comparing it to the price action and the High Five.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,134.00 - 1,135.00
Here we are right at the Pit Bull and the strong support on Friday. So should we buy em here?

Maybe...not sure yet. Although it is tempting to say buy em here let's wait and see if we get a higher opening and early run up OR we get a flat to lower price opening and early move down here with support.

If so then we could watch the BreakDown price to compare and correlate along now with our Trailblazer TCF setup to assist us in determining if we want to get long in this zone.

Remember, I will be clearly identifying the Trailblazer patterns from now on in relation to the regular TCF Trade setups you have become familiar with. Our clarity and entry/exit moves will improve dramatically as you learn this method.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,147.75 - 1,146.75
No trade at this sell pivot directly today but like on Friday wait and see how the opening goes and the early move direction. We want to keep this price zone on our radar and any price within the +4.25 stop/pivot above it at 1152.00 (the old resistance).

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,134.00
As mentioned above we are closing in on this price and my expectation is that we will blow through it to the downside pretty soon if not today.

Watch for initial support here as we look at this point as a "Line in the Sand". If prices melt right through it then we are going to be on our way to 1127-29 as the next pit stop on our way to 1101.00 eventually on the lower move. That may take some weeks or it could happen very quickly.

Pro Trader's Action
We are opening a NEW CHAPTER in these Morning Call Briefings and it begins today with the introduction of the new Trailblazer Setup.

Don't concern about learning it too fast as we will be posting a report on it this week on the site along with the entire Trailblazer report for our subscribers. We will be reviewing the new setups everyday that occur with new TCF Trailblazer so plan on watching and studying this for a week or 2.

We will always have our regular TCF setups as we have in the past issues and actually the Trailblazer setup is designed in many ways to facilitate our entry and exit into those primary setups. However, keep in mind that Trailblazer is very price dynamic and may have us getting into setups that will be in relation to the TCF setups you have come to know only will get us in at better prices in some cases even FRONTRUNNING a specific setup.

Do you recall those trades where the prices "missed" the BreakOut by 3 ticks and then sold off for 6-8 points?

Those occur several times a month and it is my hope that with Trailblazer you will be able to catch those too as you grow in your skill of reading them.

So get ready for some new excitement in trading here on the Morning Call.

If you are not already a full time subscriber then join us today. There is no better time to begin a subscription then NOW if you are on a Free trial. Our Briefings are designed for professional traders but beginners can also take advantage of them.

Keep in mind that at my last seminar there were 6 independent, long term floor traders from the CME in attendance that I had met and KNEW ABOUT. I am not sure how many were actually there. We also have some large Hedge fund managers as subscribers so you are joining with an elite group.

Good luck with your trading today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan