Escalada do preço das casas bate subidas do Leste europeu

[Dwer]

S&P500 Indexes rallied with Dow closing at same price as Wednesday January 14th price. Market indicators including High Five trading contrary to normal market movements. Use Caution and stand aside or stay on short side of rallies today if you want to trade.

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, January 21, 2004:
Sell 1137.50/ Cover for -6 pts. loss

* Sell BreakOut with Dow rallying, NAZ down, TRIN above 1.30, and VIX up. Visible odd contrast with market indicators.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

Well, Wednesday marked one of the oddest days I've seen in my many years of trading the TCF setups. We had a strong rally in the indexes after mid session in the markets which simply brought the Dow up to where it closed back on Janurary 14 of this month.

The most odd occurance of all was seeing the S&P500 futures rally in contrast to our position with the NAZ down STRONGLY and the TRIN up over 1.30. MER was also down strong over a buck and VIX was higher.

This truly was a very unusual day that I have not seen the likes of with the High Five especially.

On Tuesday we got long on the indexes at the BreakDown and it was all we could do to sqeeze a few points out on the buy side with the High Five looking pretty decent. Wednesday with an almost Bear Ugly High Five Selling the BreakOut there was never any downside pressure at all and the S&P500 kept pushing higher.

It is times like these that can try our souls and especially for our longtime subscribers who know our work well and have seen the amazing results over the last year and a half.

THE BOTTOM LINE RIGHT NOW IS THAT THESE MARKETS ARE NOT TRADING...THEY ARE SIMPLY OPENING LOWER AND GOING STRAIT UP or staying relatively flat on lower Dow days giving up very few points on the downside. On days where we are looking for a reaction to the downside off rallies there is virtually no "push and pull" trading force going on.

So what do we do? The key during periods like this is to do what we have already suggested...learn to survive. Things will eventually change and there will be trading on both sides again. The TCF setups will see reactions to rallies on the downside and strong lower moves will be lifted off exahustion lows and pulled back up.

To suggest otherwise would be to surmise that from now on the markets will never trade again but only go up! Obviously this is rediculous.

Our Morning Call briefings are designed for daytraders in the S&P500 who are or want to learn to be professional career traders. Odd periods like this come and go with Pros learning to adapt, re-tool, alter and re-configure methods as needed. Amateurs who can only trade one certain way will go by the wayside.

Our Headline Call for Wednesday was wrong. We were looking for any rally to crack to the downside. That did not occur. We are going to be wrong sometimes. Take a look at our archives over the last year. You will see a very high degree of accuracy in our Headline Calls. No one has ever stepped up to the plate and made exact crystal clear calls as I am doing here in the Morning Call briefings. Certainly there are times like now where that is going to be a tough nut to crack.

I have implemented some changes as far as taking less profits on the setups in this tight range environment. Stay the course and things will start trading again soon.

Today's Call & Briefing:
January has been one hell of a month for most traders who are on the floor or work in an intraday trading environment. Many I know of are struggling beyond belief as the markets refuse to trade but simply move upwards or sideways waiting for the next move up.

I have confessed a few weeks ago that I have a huge pile of stocks that I've held long since the so called Iraq War and it has been an amazing ride. I strongly suggested longer term bullishness back then and backed up my call by loading the boat.

I am only saying this because I can see what it is like from both sides of the fence. Intraday trading in December was extremely difficult. I normally take most of that month off as traditionally a lot of other large traders are off and I simply join them. Also, December is known for being a difficult time usually for us day traders.

After the December move from around 1060.00 on the S&P500 futures to over 50 handles higher from there we saw all of this done with an average range of close to 8-9 points which is outrageously small for daytraders. Janurary has given us an average range of a whopping 10-11 pts...just slightly higher.

And now on Wednesday we are seeing the markets rallying with a very Bearish High Five.

So I wanted to be sure you had all of this information clearly in front of you so you can see why for today only we may want to just stand aside no matter what TCF setups occur.

Eventually the markets MUST return to trading again...or unless you believe they will simply keep rising or stall here forever. There will be reaction days to both strong rallies and strong drops which is what we need as intraday traders to make things work and earn our paycheck.

TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Today may be a good day to stand aside. However if you are inclined to trade then watch for another BreakOut to occur and look to sell that BreakOut.

Those of you who are familiar with our Trailblazer report can enter on spike rallies that move beyond a widening channel as excess bears liquidate into that move. More on this to come next week as we add more details about this setup to our TCF setup list. (If you are not familiar with this be patient and I will cover all the details next week for you.)

IF WE GET A FAST EARLY DROP AGAIN THIS MORNING then be on the lookout for a BreakDown buy to once again get long as we did on Tuesday.

It appears we are getting near a topping pattern as described on today's Headline Call but as I have tried to express in this briefing. However, we are in a period that will require a bit more patience so we can preserve capital and play defense until the markets start trading again.

Value Area: 1,133.00 - 1,144.40
Watch for prices to drop into the Value Area and push toward the lower support as a sign of the market weakening. Otherwise holding above 1144.00 will most likely consolidate as the market decides to make it's next move.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,136.50 - 1,137.50
On an early drop off the opening area we can look to buy this buy pivot. Standing aside may be a good idea as we look for more clues of market decision but the fast, lower early drop in the first half hour or so of trading will continue the bullish pattern.

Watch 1132.25 for support on an early drop here to the Buy Pivot target.

The tricky part about trading the Buy Pivot today is that when the market does hit a genuine exhaustion point then there will be extreme trades to the downside as well and support levels will fail to hold.

Again, our Morning Call system is designed to trade markets that are in a "push and pull" phase where there is trading activity in a decent sized range. As our methods are based on Floor trader methods strait up markets or strait down markets are harder to catch although we do have our setups for those. Be careful right now and let's see if a larger scale downside move can snap the strait up bull move and we can get some more trading going again.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,152.00 - 1,151.00
On a HIGHER OPENING AND AN EARLY PUSH UP IN PRICES we can go ahead and sell this Sell Pivot target if you are not standing aside.

This would represent a move that would signal an temporary exhaustion and could begin a lower move today. Use a 5 point stop and watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1156.25

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,131.10
We are holding steady above the Pit Bull and the market is responding bullishly to that. This price is just below the support mentioned above on the Buy Pivot target.

Pro Trader's Action
It may be a good idea to stand aside today after yesterdays loonly rally against a very bearish High Five. As mentioned in the Headline Call although this rally created a lot of emotions amongst traders (mostly beginners) in truth it only carried the Dow to where it closed back on Janurary 14.

So with divergences like this we may see some more oddities today and it would be nice to let things sort out a bit. However, if you want to trade this action I have suggested some spots to nail the trades.

A repeat of a BreakOut is likely to fail right now so keep this in mind if we get that again.

Good luck if you decide to trade today and all the best of success.

Mohan