Cramer: "Remember to Sell"
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eu acredito que estamos muito próximo de quedas grandes, quando isso vai acontecer não sei não sou bruxo mas nestes valores vou estar atento 1150-1161-1180 se lá chegar, pela experiência que tenho dos mercados quando sobem antes da earnings season é porque vão cair a seguir e visse-versa. os mercados já descontaram estes resultados portanto é altura de vender.
um abraço.
um abraço.
-
visi
Cramer: "Remember to Sell"
"Remember to Sell"
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/16/2004 09:25 AM EST
"Don't forget to sell.
You will see those four words from me many times in the coming months. You will see them because I will not let happen to you what happened to so many of our readers in 2000.
That's right. We are a community. And as I have said, I have spent the last three weeks going over what happened in the pricking of the bubble. I've been reading the correspondence, trying to make sense of everything that happened. Trying to make sense of my critics. Trying to make sense of the era.
The soul-searching is made more poignant by the revival of Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - commentary - research), a name that I stuck with until late in the game, a name I made a lot of money in. But if you held on to it, you lost fortunes. You see, when I liked Juniper, it was OK to like Juniper. Then, of course, it wasn't.
But if you bought Juniper because I talked about it and held it, you got hurt and maybe angry at me and our product. You might have gotten knocked out of the game.
The whole time I have been writing about the market, I have believed in one bedrock concept: You have to stay in the game to win. That's always been my philosophy. I have had to develop ways to stay in the game; others, of course, developed ways before me. Diversification is a way to stay in the game. Doing homework on the companies you own is a way to stay in the game. But the most important lesson, the one that I am trying to make as my contribution to the canons of staying in the game, is remembering to sell.
Three years ago, I gave a speech about companies that could be winners of the new world, the companies that might very well inherit the earth. I was asked by the moderator to say exactly what I was buying that day. They wanted it to be very specific. I recently went over that speech, those stocks, and then what I had written about those stocks -- all available in our bountiful archives.
True to my blotter, I blew out almost every one of those stocks, many of them substantially higher than they were when I made the speech, but not most of them. Some I lost money on. But the takeaway was threefold:
1. I stayed flexible and when the insiders bailed, I bailed.
2. I remembered that I was playing with pieces of overvalued paper that would not be worth much if things went bad (because those stocks were priced for perfection).
3. There was nothing wrong with selling simply because the stocks had made big moves and I had made a lot of money.
Now a whole new group of people has come into this market in the last 18 months. I know them. I communicate with them. They got intrigued because the market's been so good. They see things like Juniper going up 15% and they say, "What the heck do I need this headache of GE for when I can buy a stock that could go up 15%? Who needs to be diversified into a drug company that could never go up 15% and an oil company that could never go up 15% when I could be in Juniper and JDS Uniphase?!?"
Right now, someone is making a decision to create fast money without the tools to realize that fast money.
If you want to be the all-Juniper fund, be my guest. But remember what it entails:
Flexibility, the ability to change your mind and most of all, selling so as not to be a pig and so as not to let them take the gains from you!
Is that clear?
Doesn't matter. Even if you say, "Yes, it is clear," I am going to go back over this topic a gazillion times. I tried my best in 2000 but when I read my myriad columns about selling, I never made it clear enough how dreadful the consequences were if you didn't stay in the game, if you rode things down, if you forgot to sell.
This time, I will be better. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/16/2004 09:25 AM EST
"Don't forget to sell.
You will see those four words from me many times in the coming months. You will see them because I will not let happen to you what happened to so many of our readers in 2000.
That's right. We are a community. And as I have said, I have spent the last three weeks going over what happened in the pricking of the bubble. I've been reading the correspondence, trying to make sense of everything that happened. Trying to make sense of my critics. Trying to make sense of the era.
The soul-searching is made more poignant by the revival of Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - commentary - research), a name that I stuck with until late in the game, a name I made a lot of money in. But if you held on to it, you lost fortunes. You see, when I liked Juniper, it was OK to like Juniper. Then, of course, it wasn't.
But if you bought Juniper because I talked about it and held it, you got hurt and maybe angry at me and our product. You might have gotten knocked out of the game.
The whole time I have been writing about the market, I have believed in one bedrock concept: You have to stay in the game to win. That's always been my philosophy. I have had to develop ways to stay in the game; others, of course, developed ways before me. Diversification is a way to stay in the game. Doing homework on the companies you own is a way to stay in the game. But the most important lesson, the one that I am trying to make as my contribution to the canons of staying in the game, is remembering to sell.
Three years ago, I gave a speech about companies that could be winners of the new world, the companies that might very well inherit the earth. I was asked by the moderator to say exactly what I was buying that day. They wanted it to be very specific. I recently went over that speech, those stocks, and then what I had written about those stocks -- all available in our bountiful archives.
True to my blotter, I blew out almost every one of those stocks, many of them substantially higher than they were when I made the speech, but not most of them. Some I lost money on. But the takeaway was threefold:
1. I stayed flexible and when the insiders bailed, I bailed.
2. I remembered that I was playing with pieces of overvalued paper that would not be worth much if things went bad (because those stocks were priced for perfection).
3. There was nothing wrong with selling simply because the stocks had made big moves and I had made a lot of money.
Now a whole new group of people has come into this market in the last 18 months. I know them. I communicate with them. They got intrigued because the market's been so good. They see things like Juniper going up 15% and they say, "What the heck do I need this headache of GE for when I can buy a stock that could go up 15%? Who needs to be diversified into a drug company that could never go up 15% and an oil company that could never go up 15% when I could be in Juniper and JDS Uniphase?!?"
Right now, someone is making a decision to create fast money without the tools to realize that fast money.
If you want to be the all-Juniper fund, be my guest. But remember what it entails:
Flexibility, the ability to change your mind and most of all, selling so as not to be a pig and so as not to let them take the gains from you!
Is that clear?
Doesn't matter. Even if you say, "Yes, it is clear," I am going to go back over this topic a gazillion times. I tried my best in 2000 but when I read my myriad columns about selling, I never made it clear enough how dreadful the consequences were if you didn't stay in the game, if you rode things down, if you forgot to sell.
This time, I will be better. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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