António Costa: "Temos de manter nervos de aço" com os EUA

[Midas]

Um pequeno off-topic "p'ra descontra" para libertar o ar de preocupação.



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Se quiserem saber mais sobre o vídeo:

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - War bond
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_bond#United_States_2

Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - Series E bond
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Series_E_bond

[frugal]

Virtuagod:

qual a razao para se ter em carteira:

Fundos accionistas

EEF Equity Consumer Staples R Acc |Bloomberg
Fidelity Gl Consmr Industries A-EUR |Bloomberg Descoberto pela Manushe

Fundos Mistos

Carmignac Patrimoine A |Bloomberg
Invesco Balanced-Risk Alloc E |Bloomberg


Qual o peso percentual que devem ter estas componentes numa carteira de fundos como a que demonstras?

Abraço[/quote]

[ghorez]

Vivam,
Falaram-me deste fundo (http://www.esaf.pt/Default.aspx?tabid=1 ... istafundos) e fiquei admirado com 4% rentabilidade anual.
Será para continuar esta rentabilidade? Tinha ideia que estes fundos normalmente tinham rentabilidade anual entre 1 - 2 % ...

Bons negócios,
jepm

A tendência penso será 3%/ano. Dentro da classe de tesouraria (que é muito conservadora) é o mais arriscado (papel comercial). Além deste risco, tens o risco de associado ao grupo espírito santo.

[pinamiranda]

Vivam,
Falaram-me deste fundo (http://www.esaf.pt/Default.aspx?tabid=1 ... istafundos) e fiquei admirado com 4% rentabilidade anual.
Será para continuar esta rentabilidade? Tinha ideia que estes fundos normalmente tinham rentabilidade anual entre 1 - 2 % ...

Bons negócios,
jepm

[ghorez]

Viva,

Queria-vos pedir uma opiniao.

Nao tenho um tostao investido. Ainda nao me decidi por uma carteira, mas estou inclinado por algo simples: obrigacoes + accoes + imobiliario (dose pequena). O meu objectivo e' obter valorizacoes anualizadas de 3 a 5% num horizonte de 3 a 5 anos.

Estive quase a entrar no PIMCO TR no mes passado e por sorte adiei. Os fundos accionistas estao em maximos historicos e aproxima-se o verao. A questao que coloco e' se sera' oportuno criar uma carteira agora ou se mais vale continuar de fora 'a espera dos possiveis saldos que ai virao?

Um abraco

O que te posso dizer é para estabeleceres as % q queres alocar a cada activo e começar a investir. Se tens dúvidas no dia em que vais entrar e se não houver custos de transacção, vai colocando dinheiro nos activos periodicamente e não tudo de uma vez.

Por exemplo:
50% Acções
50% Obrigações
Total para investir 10 000€
Mês 1: Entras com 2000€ (1000€ Acções, 1000€ Obrigações);
Mês 2: Outros 2000€
e assim sucessivamente...até chegares aos 10000€.

Podes fazer mês a mês...semana a semana...trimestre a trimestre. O que te sentires mais confortável.
Mas como diz o jokerportuga, se pensas que isto será sempre a subir..é melhor ficares pelos depósitos a prazo.

[jokerportuga]

Viva,

Queria-vos pedir uma opiniao.

Nao tenho um tostao investido. Ainda nao me decidi por uma carteira, mas estou inclinado por algo simples: obrigacoes + accoes + imobiliario (dose pequena). O meu objectivo e' obter valorizacoes anualizadas de 3 a 5% num horizonte de 3 a 5 anos.

Estive quase a entrar no PIMCO TR no mes passado e por sorte adiei. Os fundos accionistas estao em maximos historicos e aproxima-se o verao. A questao que coloco e' se sera' oportuno criar uma carteira agora ou se mais vale continuar de fora 'a espera dos possiveis saldos que ai virao?

Um abraco

Por sorte adiaste?
Se estás a pensar que é sempre a subir, então este não é o teu tipo de investimento.

Bons investimentos

[mval2002]

Viva,

Queria-vos pedir uma opiniao.

Nao tenho um tostao investido. Ainda nao me decidi por uma carteira, mas estou inclinado por algo simples: obrigacoes + accoes + imobiliario (dose pequena). O meu objectivo e' obter valorizacoes anualizadas de 3 a 5% num horizonte de 3 a 5 anos.

Estive quase a entrar no PIMCO TR no mes passado e por sorte adiei. Os fundos accionistas estao em maximos historicos e aproxima-se o verao. A questao que coloco e' se sera' oportuno criar uma carteira agora ou se mais vale continuar de fora 'a espera dos possiveis saldos que ai virao?

Um abraco

[VirtuaGod]

As obrigações ainda estão acima da média. Só agora estão a voltar ao seu "normal".

Fazes muito bem em informar o pessoal disso Rick (e do resto tb). O pessoal começa-se a habituar ao bem bom de rentabilidades de 8% ao ano, sem abanões, nos fundos obrigacionistas e nem se apercebe que NÃO é o normal.

[Midas]

As obrigações ainda estão acima da média. Só agora estão a voltar ao seu "normal".

The biggest monthly loss in fixed-income securities since 2004 has still left global yields short of the tipping point that would signal a bear market in bonds.

Yields on U.S. Treasuries (USGG10YR), German bunds and Japanese government bonds are about one standard deviation above their historical norm. Treasury 10-year rates have reached two standard deviations above the average twice since 2009, and each time the notes rallied. While sovereign yields at 1.39 percent are above the record low of 1.14 percent set May 2, they are about half the 3.64 percent average of the past 20 years, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Government Index.

Gross’s Prediction

While Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund for Pacific Investment Management Co., said May 16 that fixed income’s three-decade bull market “was over,” trading patterns suggest the increase in government debt yields isn’t abnormal. Gross said on May 31 that Newport Beach, California-based Pimco likes Treasuries that mature in 5-to-10 years as there will be “no tapering for now.”

Historical Volatility

Yields on Treasuries and bunds are more than 40 basis points below what would be two standard deviations from their means, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Japanese bonds are about five basis points away.

Standard deviations measure how tightly a data series is moving relative to the average. A price that’s two standard deviations away from its long-term level is considered “extreme and excessive” and may suggest a market is about to turn from its trend, according to Tom Fitzpatrick, the chief technical analyst at Citigroup Inc. in New York.

Standard deviations greater than one occur about 32 percent of the time in statistical models. The chance of yields reaching two standard deviations is about 5 percent over any given time, and below 0.3 percent for three levels.

Bonds’ Point of No Return About a Standard Deviation Away (Jun 3, 2013 11:11 AM GMT)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... ay-1-.html

[VirtuaGod]

óptima altura para comprar pimcos quem não os tinha, péssima altura para vender quem os têm

Fico contente quando leio isto. O problema acho que passa por o pessoal SÓ ter Pimcos, e ainda por cima o RR e o TR por mais que eu tenha avisado contra eles.

[nelsonpt]

optima altura para comprar pimcos quem nao os tinha, pessima altura para vender quem os têm

[zaq1]

Reforçando este parágrafo do artigo anterior:

"Emerging-market currencies will remain under severe pressure for at least three months,” Benoit Anne, SocGen’s head of emerging-market strategy in London, said by e-mail on May 31. “It will take time for the fundamentals to improve and then we also need the U.S. Treasury correction to stabilize.”



Esta semana vai começar como acabou a anterior...

Mais uns artigos:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... ay-1-.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... imism.html

[Midas]

O Fed, as U.S. Treasuries, as obrigações emergentes em moeda local e as moedas dos mercados emergentes.

Last month’s slump wiped out half of the 30 percent surge for emerging-market currencies since 2009, after U.S. policy makers introduced quantitative easing, or QE, in response to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, JPMorgan’s index shows.

The gauge dropped the most in seven months on May 23, plunging 0.75 percent. That was a day after Bernanke’s comments to lawmakers on the outlook for stimulus accelerated a rout in developing-nation assets.

“Bernanke is saying that it’s not going to happen in a rush but at least the debate is beginning,” Bhanu Baweja, the London-based global head of emerging-market fixed-income and foreign-exchange at UBS, said in a May 30 phone interview. “It’s a very big deal.”

Yields on local-currency bonds of emerging nations surged to a seven-month high of 5.76 percent, from 5.34 percent before Bernanke spoke, the JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Composite Yield to Maturity Index shows.

Speculation the Fed will pull back QE is pushing up yields on U.S. Treasuries, reducing the advantage of emerging-market securities and demand for the currencies needed to buy them.

Emerging Market Dominoes to Fall as SocGen Sees Rout (Jun 3, 2013 9:39 AM GMT)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... ncies.html


( Anda(va) tudo a "viver á conta" do Fed. )

[Midas]

O contágio das U.S. Treasuries:

In the worst month for fixed-income assets in almost a decade, U.K. government bonds suffered more than most.

As sovereign securities across the world declined in May amid speculation the Federal Reserve may taper its bond-buying plan, British debt trailed all but one of the 26 markets tracked by Bloomberg. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said May 15 that a U.K. recovery is “in sight” while investors are betting his successor, Mark Carney, may pursue new strategies to boost economic growth.

(...)

U.K. gilts declined 2.4 percent in May, the most since December 2009, and the second-worst performer after South African bonds in indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.

(...)

While 10-year gilts outperformed their U.S. equivalents last month, the yields on shorter-dated U.K securities increased more.

(...)

The two-year gilt yield rose 13 basis points in May to 0.37 percent. That pushed the yield difference, or spread, over their U.S. equivalents up by four basis points to eight basis points.

Two-year gilts have underperformed their U.S equivalents (...)

Gilts Trail in Worst Global Bond Month Since 2004: U.K. Credit (Jun 3, 2013 8:22 AM GMT)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-0 ... redit.html

[ghorez]

Obrigações vão descer 25%? Óptimo...o meu mínimo de comprar em saldos é -25%!!

[Manushe]

Uma boa semana para todos

[Midas]

Deixo aqui, um artigo que poderá ser interessante e controverso.


10 investing rules for the coming bond crash (April 24, 2013, 12:01 a.m. EDT)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-inv ... 2013-04-24 (Pag. 1)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-inv ... genumber=2 (Pag. 2)


Uma das passagens deste artigo:

10. Never trust your emotions

Behavioral economics was launched when Ellis wrote the first edition of “Winning the Losers’ Game.” This new science makes it clear investors are their own worst enemy. We’re not rational. We’re too optimistic in spite of impossible odds.

Um comentário ao Paul Farrell bem feito:

What’s up with Paul Farrell? I know he’s sore about Wall Street traders who game the system and make big bucks, supposedly legally and supposedly at the expense of Mom and Pop on Main Street, but he’s a very intelligent guy. Yet, so much of him since the crash of 2008 has been pure fear mongering. Not helpful! NOT a credit to MW! His best work, IMHO, was his “Lazy Portfolio” that showed good returns with virtually no trading. Now, that’s HELPFUL!!

Is he quoting Ellis accurately? Is it really helpful to say to any of us, “Get it? Do not own bonds. Get out now.” “… a ‘bond bomb’ will explode …”

Why not advise us of the kind of bonds to avoid and the kind that are still wise to hold for portfolio diversification and to dampen equity volatility?

Like, how about reminding us of how the average effective duration of our bond portfolio is really the guide to its interest rate risk? Now, THAT’S helpful. NOT, saying, effectively, DUMP ALL BONDS!

Please check my math: If the interest rate on the 10-yr Treasury currently at, say, 1.8% moves up to its “historical average of 5.5%,” a rise of 3.7%, very unlikely in one year, but then for a bond portfolio to lose 25% in one year, it would need an average effective duration of 6.8 say 7 years. (average duration in years times % change in rate = approx. % change - gain or loss - in bond value)

In event of that rate rise he says, “…an intermediate bond fund could go down 25% in value.” But the average effective duration of the BarCap US Agg Intermediate Bond Index is currently approximately 4 years, not 7 years. So, the interest rate risk on such an intermediate fund is -15%, (4yrs times 3.7%) not -25%. Right?

Furthermore, those of us who read more helpful sources, such as Harold Evensky, the widely published “Dean of Financial Planning” in Coral Gables FL, understand that one’s bond portfolio should have an average effective duration of no more than 4 years, preferably 3.5 years, in these times of higher interest rate risk. Now look at PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund PLDDX: Per Morningstar.com, average effective duration: 2.99 years. Perfect! THAT’s the kind of bond fund to hold!

C’mon, Paul; you have done, can do and owe MW followers much, much better.

Também gostei desse comentário.
Eu achei o artigo algo extremado, principalmente a primeira página, daí ter dito que poderia ser controverso. Mas reflete as reacções de medo e pânico nos últimos tempos, principalmente após as declarações do Fed, dos investidores em obrigações dos EUA. Existe um clima de ansiedade nos investidores obrigacionistas, devido á possibilidade de aumento das taxas de juro e do fim dos QEs. Se por um lado, os sinais de melhoria económica dos EUA, fazem subir os mercados accionistas, por outro, eles fazem cair os mercados obrigacionistas, devido a possibilidade de terminar as politicas expansionistas do FED. Neste momento existe muito nervosismo e incerteza nos mercados dos EUA.

( Não é só na Europa, que existe crises.
Só falta o Bernanke (Fed), vir acalmar os mercados, após os ter "incendiando", para ser parecido com as declarações dos responsáveis europeus. )

[VIXIUM]

Deixo aqui, um artigo que poderá ser interessante e controverso.


10 investing rules for the coming bond crash (April 24, 2013, 12:01 a.m. EDT)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-inv ... 2013-04-24 (Pag. 1)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-inv ... genumber=2 (Pag. 2)


Uma das passagens deste artigo:

10. Never trust your emotions

Behavioral economics was launched when Ellis wrote the first edition of “Winning the Losers’ Game.” This new science makes it clear investors are their own worst enemy. We’re not rational. We’re too optimistic in spite of impossible odds.

Um comentário ao Paul Farrell bem feito:

What’s up with Paul Farrell? I know he’s sore about Wall Street traders who game the system and make big bucks, supposedly legally and supposedly at the expense of Mom and Pop on Main Street, but he’s a very intelligent guy. Yet, so much of him since the crash of 2008 has been pure fear mongering. Not helpful! NOT a credit to MW! His best work, IMHO, was his “Lazy Portfolio” that showed good returns with virtually no trading. Now, that’s HELPFUL!!

Is he quoting Ellis accurately? Is it really helpful to say to any of us, “Get it? Do not own bonds. Get out now.” “… a ‘bond bomb’ will explode …”

Why not advise us of the kind of bonds to avoid and the kind that are still wise to hold for portfolio diversification and to dampen equity volatility?

Like, how about reminding us of how the average effective duration of our bond portfolio is really the guide to its interest rate risk? Now, THAT’S helpful. NOT, saying, effectively, DUMP ALL BONDS!

Please check my math: If the interest rate on the 10-yr Treasury currently at, say, 1.8% moves up to its “historical average of 5.5%,” a rise of 3.7%, very unlikely in one year, but then for a bond portfolio to lose 25% in one year, it would need an average effective duration of 6.8 say 7 years. (average duration in years times % change in rate = approx. % change - gain or loss - in bond value)

In event of that rate rise he says, “…an intermediate bond fund could go down 25% in value.” But the average effective duration of the BarCap US Agg Intermediate Bond Index is currently approximately 4 years, not 7 years. So, the interest rate risk on such an intermediate fund is -15%, (4yrs times 3.7%) not -25%. Right?

Furthermore, those of us who read more helpful sources, such as Harold Evensky, the widely published “Dean of Financial Planning” in Coral Gables FL, understand that one’s bond portfolio should have an average effective duration of no more than 4 years, preferably 3.5 years, in these times of higher interest rate risk. Now look at PIMCO Low Duration Bond Fund PLDDX: Per Morningstar.com, average effective duration: 2.99 years. Perfect! THAT’s the kind of bond fund to hold!

C’mon, Paul; you have done, can do and owe MW followers much, much better.

[Midas]

PIMCO no Twitter:
https://twitter.com/PIMCO

PIMCO ‏@PIMCO 3 h

Gross: So how do you like these apples? Slow global growth, currency wars, tight risk spreads. Put risk assets in your rear view mirror.

PIMCO ‏@PIMCO 31 maio

Gross: PIMCO likes 5-10 year Treasuries here. Economy growing at 1.7%, NO tapering for now. Fed funds rate at .25% for long time.

PIMCO ‏@PIMCO 30 maio

When a traditional investment model no longer produces the returns you seek – It’s time for alternatives. http://ht.ly/lxREz

[Midas]

Deixo aqui, um artigo que poderá ser interessante e controverso.


10 investing rules for the coming bond crash (April 24, 2013, 12:01 a.m. EDT)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-inv ... 2013-04-24 (Pag. 1)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-inv ... genumber=2 (Pag. 2)


Uma das passagens deste artigo:

10. Never trust your emotions

Behavioral economics was launched when Ellis wrote the first edition of “Winning the Losers’ Game.” This new science makes it clear investors are their own worst enemy. We’re not rational. We’re too optimistic in spite of impossible odds.

[frugal]

Treasuries Loss Is Biggest in 3 Years as Fed Considers Tapering

Virtuagod

qual a razao para se ter em carteira:

Fundos accionistas

EEF Equity Consumer Staples R Acc |Bloomberg
Fidelity Gl Consmr Industries A-EUR |Bloomberg Descoberto pela Manushe

Fundos Mistos

Carmignac Patrimoine A |Bloomberg
Invesco Balanced-Risk Alloc E |Bloomberg


Qual o peso percentual que devem ter estas componentes numa carteira de fundos como a que demonstras?

Abraço

[nelsonpt]

ehhhe
tenho acompanhado isto e tal como voces tambem estou a levar na "boca" com estas descidas

e se perguntam, mais um assustado?
nao... sou demasiado conservador demasiado prudente e demasiado agarrado ao dinheiro que tanto me custa a ganhar

Sair, agora que quase a totalidade da minha carteira está abaixo dos 0% nao é coisa que irei fazer!

Melhores dias virão, e as subidas irão regressar

Nao se enervem tanto...chill out

[VirtuaGod]

Treasuries Loss Is Biggest in 3 Years as Fed Considers Tapering

[Midas]

Pois é Rick, esta já é prai a 4ª versao da carteira, hoje calhei de colocar o fundo da Vontobel e retirar o Pimco TR pois li que a Vontobel foi distinguida este ano por este fundo e fui dar uma vista de olhos no mesmo e parece-me um fundo bem gerido.

O PImco TR tem muita divida USA e isso ja tenho noutros por isso resolvi tira-lo. Em relação ao fundo de acoes que sugeres vou da uma vista de olhos no mesmo.

Isto é um projeto que tem vindo a sofrer alteraçoes desde ha 3 semanas e vou subscrever pra semana.

Não desgosto do Vontobel, bem pelo contrário, eu gosto da versão deste fundo em USD. Mas para um período de 3-5 anos, o "Hedge" ajuda a controlar a volatilidade do risco cambial. E investir em fundos em moeda estrangeira a curto prazo, o risco é maior, devido a volatilidade de curto prazo das moedas. Por isso, acho que fazes bem em fazer cobertura de risco cambial ("Hedge"). A Vontobel costumar ter fundos de acções mais defensivos do que muitas gestoras. Quando te falei em possivelmente alterares as % Fidelity/Eurizon e juntares o Vontobel, era numa perspectiva de fazeres a gestão que te sentires mais confortável na totalidade de carteira, deves ver os fundos de acções como um todo. Ver individualmente e em conjunto com todos os fundos de acções na carteira.

[Midas]

The performance of the $293 billion Total Return Fund puts it behind 94 percent of similarly managed funds through May 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Fonte: Gross’s Pimco Total Return Fund Falls 1.9% in May (May 31, 2013 6:10 PM GMT+0100)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-3 ... n-may.html