Trump vai enviar cartas a 12 países a notificar tarifas

[Incognitus]

O problema continua a ser o mesmo do ano 2000: boas perspectivas não justificam qualquer preço. No entanto o Cramer e 98% das pessoeas não pensam dessa forma.

De resto, até o Cramer implicitamente mostra que isto é uma bolha, no resumo de outro artigo:

"XM Satellite Secondary Puts Us on Watch This deal could mark the start of a pattern that led to the popping of the bubble in 2000: massive insider sales."

[Visitante]

Marta... se olhares para o hor+ario de colocação dos posts, vês q o segundo foi actualmente o primeiro a ser escrito .

E até acho q faz muito sentido o que ele diz... de facto está tudo muito longo e confiante... e segundo ele temos razões para isso... mas isso devia a que as pessoas n entrassem em euforias e estivessem preparadas para uma descida no curto prazo (ou seja, atenção... muita atenção e stops apertados ).

Beijocas
Nunofaustino

[Ulisses Pereira]

Eu acho que é bem claro no que ele diz. O próprio título do artigo de cima mostra bem o que ele acha, ou seja: Por um lado, está a tirar dinheiro do mercado porque está a ver uma onda eufórica de optimismo, sinal de que o mercado precisa de cair um pouco mas, por outro lado, as boas perspectivas de algumas acções fazem com que ele fique sem saber qual destes factores vai ter mais impacto.

Mas claro que o que está na moda é dizer que o mercado vai fazer isto ou aquilo e quando alguém se mostra indeciso é logo gozado...

Beijos,
Ulisses

[Pata-Hari]

LOL, eu acho que isso não faz sentido nenhum num ele diz "caramba, é melhor tirar dinheiro do mercado, já está tudo dentro, não shorto, mas dentro não me sinto confortável", e no outro, 5 minutos mais tarde, diz "COMPRAR! ADORO COMPRAR, TANTA COISA PARA EU COMPRAR..." lol. O "homem" nesses 5 minutos nem teve tempo para escrever o segundo artigo, quando mais para mudar assim de opinião...

Sempre achei que este cramer se drunfava, mas hoje ainda acho mais....

[Ulisses Pereira]

Isto vem na sequência deste artigo:

"Complacency's Rise Dampens Bullish Outlook"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/14/2004 10:22 AM EST


"Can 1,500 Chicago executives be wrong?

That's what I wondered Tuesday after Terry Savage, the terrific Chicago-Sun-Times columnist and author, asked the attendees of the Executives' Club of Chicago luncheon I was speaking at to raise their hands if they thought the Dow was going to retreat below 10,000.


Only three people raised their hands.

The showing took my breath away, especially when you consider that when that question was asked at this event a year ago, when the Dow was at 8700, more than a third of the attendees thought the Dow could go much lower and most thought it wouldn't do anything.

When I saw only three hands go up vs. tons of hands going up when Savage asked for shows of confidence in 10% and 25% gains, I gulped, turned to my co-panelist, Diane Swonk from Bank One, and blurted "Bad dispersion!"

Yep, I can't stress how much that tidbit, that anecdotal tidbit, made me want to reassess my aggressively bullish stance. I can't stress it enough because it says three important things:

1. Everyone's invested already or else hundreds more hands would have gone up for the Dow retreat question.
2. Nobody's got puts or shorts or positions that would profit from a decline.
3.They were wrong last year; it would be consistent if they were wrong again this year.

Of course, the issue I am fighting against has to do with the delectable combination of good earnings, low inflation and low interest rates coupled with, of course, the lack of competition from other investment alternatives.

The straw poll at this luncheon Tuesday doesn't impact those fundamentals.


But it does speak loudly: There is less room for error than we think. When everyone is in, it's really hard to get new money coming in that will move the market higher other than the money that comes from the annual contributions, which turns to a trickle come February.

You can't just be a contrarian and make money. You can't say "OK, I have to bet against those hands because my gut says to do so even though I don't have a good bear case."

But you can raise cash when you see too much complacency around.

And that's what I've been doing -- not hand-over-fist, not aggressively, but not idly, either -- and I will continue to do so today for my Action Alerts PLUS portfolio. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Glut of Good Stocks Challenges Market Concerns"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
01/14/2004 12:27 PM EST


"What keeps interfering with my judgment about being cautious after the initial spurt of the year ends is how much I want to buy stocks here. Every morning I sit and marvel that there are literally dozens of stocks that strike me as big stocks for 2004. It's hard to hate a market when there are so many stocks I want to buy.

Given that I think rates are staying low and the underwriting calendar is heating up, how can I not want to buy Goldman Sachs (GS:NYSE - commentary - research)? Given that I see the copper stocks selling off in what I think will be another year that's good for the group, I want to buy more Phelps Dodge (PD:NYSE - commentary - research) right here, right now. I want to own the printer stocks on this news of an antitrust complaint against Lexmark (LXK:NYSE - commentary - research) by the European Union. I want to own Wendy's (WEN:NYSE - commentary - research) on this terrific comp number despite all the bad macro beef news. I want to buy Nortel (NT:NYSE - commentary - research) so badly I can taste it. I have been talking about AT&T Wireless (AWE:NYSE - commentary - research) for three months now, and I can't wait to get the proceeds from a bid to cycle back into telecom.


Don't you think that Disney's (DIS:NYSE - commentary - research) having a terrific quarter? How about Best Buy (BBY:NYSE - commentary - research) on this pullback, attractive, no? Boeing's (BA:NYSE - commentary - research) breaking out and that one could be having a multi-year move.

EMC's (EMC:NYSE - commentary - research) back! So's Micron (MU:NYSE - commentary - research)!

Ingersoll-Rand (IR:NYSE - commentary - research), American Standard (ASD:NYSE - commentary - research), Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE - commentary - research), Deere (DE:NYSE - commentary - research) and United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - commentary - research) just won't quit! I want those, too!

General Motors (GM:NYSE - commentary - research) at $53? Bring it on! I need more ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - commentary - research) ahead of that coming quarter!

I could go on and on.

Of course, rigor dictates prudence. And I don't want to have more than 25 names in my own Action Alerts PLUS portfolio because of how hard it is to keep track of the stocks.

But it's the zeal that I feel for individual stocks that overrides so many other concerns I feel about complacency and too many bulls and too much optimism.

Yeah, I like it here. I like it here a lot. "