Mohan 08/01/04
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Mohan 08/01/04
Market to continue higher earlier in the session but we are still looking for a sell off to occur intraday. Stay on the sell side unless we get fast, early drops that are not part of a Bear Ugly type scenario.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, January 7, 2004:
Sell at 1121.50/ cover for 4-5 pts. loss.
*Sell BreakOut and cover into the close.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
The Full Moon day did it's typical erratic swings on Wednesday and showed us unsual characteristics in contrast to what our regular readings of the High Five are. We got the early sell off which found support just above the 1114.00 price we mentioned (-4.25 stop/pivot below the Buy Pivot target).
For more information on the "Fool Moon" days go to our site at www.21stcenturyfutures.com , look in the upper left hand corner for the Key Word scanner, type in "Fool Moon" and read the first TCF Briefing that pops up at the top. That has a very good explanation of these phenmena. I've seen some real doozies over the last 8 years and that is why I mention them here on the Morning Call.
We had suggested that we wouldn't be persuing the Buy/Sell pivots this week as we let the market sort itself out some. This would have been a nice support area to buy for Wednesday as we saw AN EXACT REPEAT PERFORMANCE of what happened on Tuesday which is rare (IE: market finding support and pushing up into the close). This first week back from the New Year is filled with the bullish spirit and it was odd in light of the High Five showing rather bearish characteristics Wednesday.
The BreakOut was hit as the first Hour One pivot which we suggested shorting again. Prices pulled back some but as mentioned in a repeat performance of Tuesday, inspite of a Bearish High Five, the market pushed higher into the close.
The short trade had to be cut later into the last hour also like Tuesday but with a more bearish appearance you would have wanted to give it more patience. Getting out near the close produced a 4-5 pt. loss as prices rose but didn't touch off the stop at 1127.50.
There are periods like this often surrounding holdays where we find the TCF setups may get stopped out a bit more than usual but it's no big deal as following the approach we use will usually pull out steady gains on a monthly basis. This is to be expected in futures trading and especially the "fastest game in town"...the S&P500 business.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On our Headline Call today we are looking for early, continued higher prices and will still be looking to stay on the sell side if that is what sets up. Usually we find the same Hour One Pivot will not get hit 3 times in a row so there is a good chance that we will hit the BreakDown first today.
Now again, like yesterday, the difficulty is that we want to try and stay on the sell side but willing to be buyers IF we do not have a Bear Ugly type day setting up.
The most likely scenario for today will be to see the market hang up for the morning like Tuesday and then start to erode later in the session after 1:30 est.
Again, we are still on these odd holiday type patterns. CASE IN POINT: Last 2 days have seen the S&P500 making new highs for the recent period but both with DOWN DOW DAYS.
If the Dow tries to catch up today with an early rally but we see the S&P500 holding back then this should be a sign of the market getting ready to crack.
We can only take our best shots at the TCF pivots and let the system do it's work.
A quick note on trading, patience and maturity: No trader "likes" losses and especially me but we have chosen a business to persue where losses and difficult periods are part of trading. For a new trader to get involved with futures and not be familiar or experienced with how this business works can be very challenging emotionally for that person. Impatience, anger, desire to blame someone or something for losses, and emotional upset over not getting immediate results are all symptoms of lack of experience in futures trading. The markets change frequently and the TCF methods adapt to those changes but there can always be weaker periods and stronger ones. This is true of ANY business and especially in futures. Experienced professionals are able to ride out the difficult periods and look for proven results over an extended period of time.
Case in point was December. We do not get involved in trading most of December and now you can see why. Many amateur traders who think they have to trade every single day got cut up pretty bad trying to trade the tight ranges of December. We are still in the final stages of that and so we need to be patient and wait for the markets to break this steady uptrend and start trading in an ebb and flow again. Be patient and be MATURE about futures trading. S&P500 Trading will guaranteed bring out all your insecurites and fears if you let it. Take a look at our year and a half of archives and you will see how our methods produce steady, winning trades with some huge months and other months weaker. This should assist you if you are having any insecurities. Trading should be viewed with a long term approach.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We are expecting that the BreakDown will most likely be the first Hour One pivot hit today. We may see the BreakOut again but the odds are not in favor of it.
Buying the B/D is possible IF we are not in a Bear Ugly day as described on yesterdays briefing. I am going to be a bit more cautious buying the B/D today and may stand aside. We could also get a "Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance" setup if the prices breakdown below the -4.25 stop/pivot again at 1114.00 which has now become a key number.
If we do again hit the BreakOut then see how the High Five looks and continue to stay on the sell side. Watch for fast drops off the B/O that climb back up to entry and make sure and tighten the stop if it drops 5 points and comes back to entry as per our rule.
Value Area: 1,118.70 - 1,125.30
Bottom of the VA is showing good support on Wednesday. Will it continue today? Perhaps not if we see prices open higher and then cave in later in the day.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,118.25 - 1,119.25
No trade at this pivot today. We are still refraining this first week after New Year from using the Buy/Sell Pivot targets. Wednesday's early Buy Pivot just barely held the support and would have been a nice trade but we had decided not to trade the pivots. There will be many days where we can catch these next week and beyond.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,129.75 - 1,128.75
No trade at this pivot target. It's tempting to recommend a short here but let's wait and compare it to the BreakOut and see if prices are going to continue to "hang up" near the Highs.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,108.20
Strong support as prices continue to bounce off drops. We are at the phase were the upside should be getting exhausted and so we are hitting the sell side looking for reactions. On lower openings and lower early moves we still want to stay long on the upper side of this Pit Bull.
Pro Trader's Action
This first week back from holiday and New Years is still conditioned with that Non-Trading type of holiday activity which I dislike and always try and avoid.
As intraday traders we need volatility and MARKET PLAY. That means there is a "conflict of opinion" in which way the market is headed. That creates what you hear me call "Ebb and Flow" or a continuous stream of buyers and sellers. We are still not there yet as evidenced by the last 2 days.
Under normal Ebb and Flow trading days we would have seen the markets pull back off the BreakOut more giving us opportunities to tighten stops, cover the trades or give us more price action information.
The last 2 days we had the S&P500 rising nicely with new recent period highs BUT NO DOW RALLY. Very, very odd and a sign of something wrong.
So let's see if we GET A DOW CATCH UP EARLY TODAY BUT WITH S&P'S FALTERING and holding back. This would be one early clue of the market getting exhausted. Then we will see some stronger reaction to short trades.
Good luck today, continue to use a bit more than usual caution and I'll see you in the action.
Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, January 7, 2004:
Sell at 1121.50/ cover for 4-5 pts. loss.
*Sell BreakOut and cover into the close.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
The Full Moon day did it's typical erratic swings on Wednesday and showed us unsual characteristics in contrast to what our regular readings of the High Five are. We got the early sell off which found support just above the 1114.00 price we mentioned (-4.25 stop/pivot below the Buy Pivot target).
For more information on the "Fool Moon" days go to our site at www.21stcenturyfutures.com , look in the upper left hand corner for the Key Word scanner, type in "Fool Moon" and read the first TCF Briefing that pops up at the top. That has a very good explanation of these phenmena. I've seen some real doozies over the last 8 years and that is why I mention them here on the Morning Call.
We had suggested that we wouldn't be persuing the Buy/Sell pivots this week as we let the market sort itself out some. This would have been a nice support area to buy for Wednesday as we saw AN EXACT REPEAT PERFORMANCE of what happened on Tuesday which is rare (IE: market finding support and pushing up into the close). This first week back from the New Year is filled with the bullish spirit and it was odd in light of the High Five showing rather bearish characteristics Wednesday.
The BreakOut was hit as the first Hour One pivot which we suggested shorting again. Prices pulled back some but as mentioned in a repeat performance of Tuesday, inspite of a Bearish High Five, the market pushed higher into the close.
The short trade had to be cut later into the last hour also like Tuesday but with a more bearish appearance you would have wanted to give it more patience. Getting out near the close produced a 4-5 pt. loss as prices rose but didn't touch off the stop at 1127.50.
There are periods like this often surrounding holdays where we find the TCF setups may get stopped out a bit more than usual but it's no big deal as following the approach we use will usually pull out steady gains on a monthly basis. This is to be expected in futures trading and especially the "fastest game in town"...the S&P500 business.
Today's Call & Briefing:
On our Headline Call today we are looking for early, continued higher prices and will still be looking to stay on the sell side if that is what sets up. Usually we find the same Hour One Pivot will not get hit 3 times in a row so there is a good chance that we will hit the BreakDown first today.
Now again, like yesterday, the difficulty is that we want to try and stay on the sell side but willing to be buyers IF we do not have a Bear Ugly type day setting up.
The most likely scenario for today will be to see the market hang up for the morning like Tuesday and then start to erode later in the session after 1:30 est.
Again, we are still on these odd holiday type patterns. CASE IN POINT: Last 2 days have seen the S&P500 making new highs for the recent period but both with DOWN DOW DAYS.
If the Dow tries to catch up today with an early rally but we see the S&P500 holding back then this should be a sign of the market getting ready to crack.
We can only take our best shots at the TCF pivots and let the system do it's work.
A quick note on trading, patience and maturity: No trader "likes" losses and especially me but we have chosen a business to persue where losses and difficult periods are part of trading. For a new trader to get involved with futures and not be familiar or experienced with how this business works can be very challenging emotionally for that person. Impatience, anger, desire to blame someone or something for losses, and emotional upset over not getting immediate results are all symptoms of lack of experience in futures trading. The markets change frequently and the TCF methods adapt to those changes but there can always be weaker periods and stronger ones. This is true of ANY business and especially in futures. Experienced professionals are able to ride out the difficult periods and look for proven results over an extended period of time.
Case in point was December. We do not get involved in trading most of December and now you can see why. Many amateur traders who think they have to trade every single day got cut up pretty bad trying to trade the tight ranges of December. We are still in the final stages of that and so we need to be patient and wait for the markets to break this steady uptrend and start trading in an ebb and flow again. Be patient and be MATURE about futures trading. S&P500 Trading will guaranteed bring out all your insecurites and fears if you let it. Take a look at our year and a half of archives and you will see how our methods produce steady, winning trades with some huge months and other months weaker. This should assist you if you are having any insecurities. Trading should be viewed with a long term approach.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We are expecting that the BreakDown will most likely be the first Hour One pivot hit today. We may see the BreakOut again but the odds are not in favor of it.
Buying the B/D is possible IF we are not in a Bear Ugly day as described on yesterdays briefing. I am going to be a bit more cautious buying the B/D today and may stand aside. We could also get a "Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance" setup if the prices breakdown below the -4.25 stop/pivot again at 1114.00 which has now become a key number.
If we do again hit the BreakOut then see how the High Five looks and continue to stay on the sell side. Watch for fast drops off the B/O that climb back up to entry and make sure and tighten the stop if it drops 5 points and comes back to entry as per our rule.
Value Area: 1,118.70 - 1,125.30
Bottom of the VA is showing good support on Wednesday. Will it continue today? Perhaps not if we see prices open higher and then cave in later in the day.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,118.25 - 1,119.25
No trade at this pivot today. We are still refraining this first week after New Year from using the Buy/Sell Pivot targets. Wednesday's early Buy Pivot just barely held the support and would have been a nice trade but we had decided not to trade the pivots. There will be many days where we can catch these next week and beyond.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,129.75 - 1,128.75
No trade at this pivot target. It's tempting to recommend a short here but let's wait and compare it to the BreakOut and see if prices are going to continue to "hang up" near the Highs.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,108.20
Strong support as prices continue to bounce off drops. We are at the phase were the upside should be getting exhausted and so we are hitting the sell side looking for reactions. On lower openings and lower early moves we still want to stay long on the upper side of this Pit Bull.
Pro Trader's Action
This first week back from holiday and New Years is still conditioned with that Non-Trading type of holiday activity which I dislike and always try and avoid.
As intraday traders we need volatility and MARKET PLAY. That means there is a "conflict of opinion" in which way the market is headed. That creates what you hear me call "Ebb and Flow" or a continuous stream of buyers and sellers. We are still not there yet as evidenced by the last 2 days.
Under normal Ebb and Flow trading days we would have seen the markets pull back off the BreakOut more giving us opportunities to tighten stops, cover the trades or give us more price action information.
The last 2 days we had the S&P500 rising nicely with new recent period highs BUT NO DOW RALLY. Very, very odd and a sign of something wrong.
So let's see if we GET A DOW CATCH UP EARLY TODAY BUT WITH S&P'S FALTERING and holding back. This would be one early clue of the market getting exhausted. Then we will see some stronger reaction to short trades.
Good luck today, continue to use a bit more than usual caution and I'll see you in the action.
Mohan
- Anexos
-
- Mohan 080104.PNG (46.26 KiB) Visualizado 129 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado: