SECTOR: Bebidas
Re: SECTOR: Bebidas
Este é um dos tópicos mais úteis do Caldeirão. Uma autêntica fonte de otimismo tecnicamente fundamentado. Parabéns.
Raposo.
Raposo.
"Se um homem tiver realmente muita fé, pode dar-se ao luxo de ser céptico."
in: Citações e Pensamentos, Friedrich Nietzsche
in: Citações e Pensamentos, Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: SECTOR: Bebidas
O sector das bebidas (que quase duplicou de valor entre Agosto de 2011 e Abril de 2013) anda há quase um ano a lateralizar.
A zona de consolidação tem vindo a formar um enorme triângulo simétrico (a linha de oferta que desenhei é ligeiramente diferente da que considerei no post de 1 de Novembro).
A eventual ruptura em alta do triângulo, eventualmente acompanhada por um fecho acima dos 500 pontos colocará o índice numa situação bastante bull.
O fecho mais alto de sempre foi nos 515 pontos, cerca de 5,5% acima dos valores actuais.
A zona de consolidação tem vindo a formar um enorme triângulo simétrico (a linha de oferta que desenhei é ligeiramente diferente da que considerei no post de 1 de Novembro).
A eventual ruptura em alta do triângulo, eventualmente acompanhada por um fecho acima dos 500 pontos colocará o índice numa situação bastante bull.
O fecho mais alto de sempre foi nos 515 pontos, cerca de 5,5% acima dos valores actuais.
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Re: Sector em análise - Bebidas (Europa)
Há mais de sete meses que não actualizo este gráfico. O sector das bebidas fez máximos absolutos no início de Abril mas desde então tem vindo a consolidar no que parece ser uma espécie de triângulo simétrico.
Um eventual fecho acima de 500 pontos sinalizará o provável retomar das subidas de longo prazo.
Um eventual fecho acima de 500 pontos sinalizará o provável retomar das subidas de longo prazo.
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O sector das bebidas continua em ebulição, hoje fez um novo máximo absoluto acima dos 468.
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Elias Escreveu:Tosh5457 Escreveu:Elias nestas análises sectoriais não podes pôr um gráfico com relative strength em relação ao índice geral? Ajuda bastante para ver quais os sectores mais fortes.
Referes-te a uma evolução comparada dos dois? Ou tinhas outra coisa em mente?
Sim, relative strength. O rácio entre 1 e o outro, no ProRealTime existe esse indicador.
First rule of central banking: When the ship starts to sink, central bankers must bail like hell.
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Tosh5457 Escreveu:Elias nestas análises sectoriais não podes pôr um gráfico com relative strength em relação ao índice geral? Ajuda bastante para ver quais os sectores mais fortes.
Referes-te a uma evolução comparada dos dois? Ou tinhas outra coisa em mente?
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Elias nestas análises sectoriais não podes pôr um gráfico com relative strength em relação ao índice geral? Ajuda bastante para ver quais os sectores mais fortes.
First rule of central banking: When the ship starts to sink, central bankers must bail like hell.
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g.a.
Ajustei a posição das linhas horizontais, de modo a reflectir mais fielmente a lateralização em curso.
Hoje o sector cai mais de 1,2% para os 434 devido às quedas expressivas de algumas componentes - em particular a Diageo, a Sabmiller, a Pernod-Ricard e a Heineken, que têm maior peso no índice. De qualquer forma, o suporte não está em risco de momento.
Ajustei a posição das linhas horizontais, de modo a reflectir mais fielmente a lateralização em curso.
Hoje o sector cai mais de 1,2% para os 434 devido às quedas expressivas de algumas componentes - em particular a Diageo, a Sabmiller, a Pernod-Ricard e a Heineken, que têm maior peso no índice. De qualquer forma, o suporte não está em risco de momento.
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Se a moda pega, o sector das bebidas pode dar um trambolhão (especialmente no caso das empresas de bebidas destiladas).
Czech Republic bans spirits after methanol deaths
Sept. 14, 2012, 4:35 p.m. EDT
By William Spain
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- In an unprecedented move to curb a wave of poisonings that has left 19 dead and dozens more in the hospital, the Czech Republic on Friday banned the sale of spirits with more than 20% alcohol, the Associated Press reports. Health Minister Leos Heger told the wire service that the ban is effective immediately and covers all possible outlets nationwide, including restaurants, hotels and stores. The move was sparked after methanol was added to black market vodka and rum. A deadly chemical, extremely difficult to distinguish from beverage alcohol by sight or smell, methanol is cheaper to produce and criminals often use it to extend their illicit stocks. The Czechs have the second highest (after Moldova) per capita alcohol consumption in the world, according to the World Health Organization.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/czech- ... 2012-09-14
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Re: Sector em máximos
Figueiraa1 Escreveu:Boa tarde Sr. Engº Elias,
Porque será que várias empresas deste sector estão em queda?
Abraço,
Hoje está a haver fortes vendas nesse sector (e também no retalho e na saúde) - as razões não sei...
Em contrapartida os compradores viraram-se para os recursos básicos, a banca e a construção.
Dá uma vista de olhos aqui, na secção Supersector Indices (top/bottom)
http://www.stoxx.com/index.html
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Sector em máximos
Boa tarde Sr. Engº Elias,
Porque será que várias empresas deste sector estão em queda?
Abraço,
Porque será que várias empresas deste sector estão em queda?
Abraço,
A Woman is the most valuable asset a man will ever own, it's only a shame that some of us only realise that when she is gone..
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OT
Faltam as CUCAS para o sector subir mais LOL
Elias desculpa o OT
Elias desculpa o OT
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Após uma fase de intensas subidas, o sector continua a consolidar entre os 431 e os 443.
zxcv
zxcv
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Editado pela última vez por Elias em 29/8/2012 23:00, num total de 1 vez.
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EuroVerde Escreveu:Deve ser necessário embriagar o povo europeu no momento pós crise?
Sim. Sem dúvida, é o que o sistema se prepara para fazer. Alcool não pode faltar para Europa e para o mundo.
EuroVerde
Onde estão a oferecer as bojecas?
Acho que é um sector interessante para trading. São titulos sem grande volatilidade e que dão gráficos espectaculares como os que na maioria o Elias posta
Cumprimentos
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Depois das recentes subidas, esta foi uma semana de consolidação para o sector das bebidas.
O fecho de ontem está apenas 1% dos máximos de sempre.
Será que ainda vai haver mais umas bombadas?
O fecho de ontem está apenas 1% dos máximos de sempre.
Será que ainda vai haver mais umas bombadas?
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Changes Brew in Asian Beer Sector
Published July 29, 2012
Dow Jones Newswires
The burgeoning beer industry in Asia is likely to undergo significant changes this week, when a decision is expected to be made regarding Heineken NV's US$4.1 billion bid for one of the region's prized assets.
Asia is the final frontier for the world's top brewers, and there is plenty of room to grow: Anheuser-Busch InBev NV of Belgium, U.K.-based SABMiller PLC, Dutch brewer Heineken and Carlsberg A/S of Denmark command only 23% of the industry's profits in the Asian-Pacific region but more than 60% of the sector's profits in every other region of the world, according to Bernstein Research.
"The one market where there could still be some consolidation is Asia," said Robert Jan Vos, a beer-industry analyst with ABN Amro in Amsterdam.
With sales lackluster in Europe and North America, major brewers are increasingly looking to expand throughout Asia, competing with local brands that have dominated the beer industry for decades. China and its 1.3 billion consumers have been the focus of most brewers' expansion. But Southeast Asia, and its rapidly growing economies, are also getting a close look amid a swelling middle class. Last year, Vietnam was Asia's highest-growth beer market by consumption.
Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd., Heineken's takeover target, is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable beer companies in Asia. Through popular beer brands like Tiger and Bintang, APB holds as much as 50% market share in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, according to data provider Euromonitor, and has a strong presence in high-growth economies like Vietnam. It is one of themost attractive assets up for grabs in Asia. APB's operations span 30 breweries, 40 brands and 14 Asian countries.
"There are very few game-changing assets available" in Asia, says Harald Harvey, managing director in Asia for SABMiller.
Heineken's $40-a-share offer for the stake of its joint-venture partner, Fraser & Neave Ltd., in Asia Pacific Breweries was a defensive move to protect the Dutch brewer's turf, coming after companies linked to Thai tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi bought a 22% stake in the Singaporean conglomerate and an 8.6% stake in APB. Meanwhile, Japan-based Kirin Holdings Co. -- which acquired a 15% stake in F&N in 2010 -- is considering a bid for the group's soft-drink and dairy assets.
F&N has postponed a decision on Heineken's offer until Friday.
If Heineken's bid fails, it limits the No. 3-ranked brewer's access to some of the fastest-growing beer markets in the world, where nearly two-thirds of the world's growth in beer consumption will come from over the next five years, according to Euromonitor. But if Heineken succeeds, the company's growing presence in Asia could make it harder for other major brewers to gain traction in key markets.
"If Heineken has full control, it will market its brands more aggressively and increase its share, making it harder for others to penetrate these markets," says Goh Han Peng, an analyst at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore.
SABMiller, the world's second-largest brewer by volume after AB InBev, has one brewery in Vietnam and is looking to expand further. Carlsberg, the world's fourth-largest brewer, operates in six countries where APB has a footprint: China, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
Brewers are targeting the Asian-Pacific region after spending tens of billions of dollars in recent years snapping up assets in other parts of the world. SABMiller acquired Foster's of Australia last year.
In Asia, beer-industry profits are still playing catch-up with more established markets, dragged down by low unit revenue in China and India. The Asian-Pacific region accounted for 35% of global beer volume and 26% of revenue but only 17% of profits in 2010, Bernstein estimated.
Part of the problem is that companies in the region tend to be family controlled, or, in the case of China and Vietnam, government-controlled. Many already have signed joint ventures with big foreign brewers or sold them minority stakes, making it tougher for another major brewer to step in.
Of the Big Four, SABMiller derived the biggest share of its profits, 15%, from the Asian-Pacific region in 2010, after adjusting pro forma for the company's acquisition last year of Foster's, Bernstein estimated. Carlsberg, Heineken and AB InBev generated 12%, 6% and 1% of their profits in the region in 2010, respectively, according to Bernstein.
The shortage of major assets for sale is pushing up valuations in the beer industry. Heineken's offer values APB at 21 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to UBS. This is higher than the 15.8 multiple that AB InBev is paying to buy out the half it doesn't already own in Grupo Modelo SAB of Mexico in a $20 billion deal announced last month, and far above the 12.6 average multiple paid in dozens of global beer deals since 1999, UBS says.
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Copyright © 2012 Dow Jones Newswires
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/07 ... z22C9SgNnE
Published July 29, 2012
Dow Jones Newswires
The burgeoning beer industry in Asia is likely to undergo significant changes this week, when a decision is expected to be made regarding Heineken NV's US$4.1 billion bid for one of the region's prized assets.
Asia is the final frontier for the world's top brewers, and there is plenty of room to grow: Anheuser-Busch InBev NV of Belgium, U.K.-based SABMiller PLC, Dutch brewer Heineken and Carlsberg A/S of Denmark command only 23% of the industry's profits in the Asian-Pacific region but more than 60% of the sector's profits in every other region of the world, according to Bernstein Research.
"The one market where there could still be some consolidation is Asia," said Robert Jan Vos, a beer-industry analyst with ABN Amro in Amsterdam.
With sales lackluster in Europe and North America, major brewers are increasingly looking to expand throughout Asia, competing with local brands that have dominated the beer industry for decades. China and its 1.3 billion consumers have been the focus of most brewers' expansion. But Southeast Asia, and its rapidly growing economies, are also getting a close look amid a swelling middle class. Last year, Vietnam was Asia's highest-growth beer market by consumption.
Asia Pacific Breweries Ltd., Heineken's takeover target, is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable beer companies in Asia. Through popular beer brands like Tiger and Bintang, APB holds as much as 50% market share in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, according to data provider Euromonitor, and has a strong presence in high-growth economies like Vietnam. It is one of themost attractive assets up for grabs in Asia. APB's operations span 30 breweries, 40 brands and 14 Asian countries.
"There are very few game-changing assets available" in Asia, says Harald Harvey, managing director in Asia for SABMiller.
Heineken's $40-a-share offer for the stake of its joint-venture partner, Fraser & Neave Ltd., in Asia Pacific Breweries was a defensive move to protect the Dutch brewer's turf, coming after companies linked to Thai tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi bought a 22% stake in the Singaporean conglomerate and an 8.6% stake in APB. Meanwhile, Japan-based Kirin Holdings Co. -- which acquired a 15% stake in F&N in 2010 -- is considering a bid for the group's soft-drink and dairy assets.
F&N has postponed a decision on Heineken's offer until Friday.
If Heineken's bid fails, it limits the No. 3-ranked brewer's access to some of the fastest-growing beer markets in the world, where nearly two-thirds of the world's growth in beer consumption will come from over the next five years, according to Euromonitor. But if Heineken succeeds, the company's growing presence in Asia could make it harder for other major brewers to gain traction in key markets.
"If Heineken has full control, it will market its brands more aggressively and increase its share, making it harder for others to penetrate these markets," says Goh Han Peng, an analyst at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore.
SABMiller, the world's second-largest brewer by volume after AB InBev, has one brewery in Vietnam and is looking to expand further. Carlsberg, the world's fourth-largest brewer, operates in six countries where APB has a footprint: China, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.
Brewers are targeting the Asian-Pacific region after spending tens of billions of dollars in recent years snapping up assets in other parts of the world. SABMiller acquired Foster's of Australia last year.
In Asia, beer-industry profits are still playing catch-up with more established markets, dragged down by low unit revenue in China and India. The Asian-Pacific region accounted for 35% of global beer volume and 26% of revenue but only 17% of profits in 2010, Bernstein estimated.
Part of the problem is that companies in the region tend to be family controlled, or, in the case of China and Vietnam, government-controlled. Many already have signed joint ventures with big foreign brewers or sold them minority stakes, making it tougher for another major brewer to step in.
Of the Big Four, SABMiller derived the biggest share of its profits, 15%, from the Asian-Pacific region in 2010, after adjusting pro forma for the company's acquisition last year of Foster's, Bernstein estimated. Carlsberg, Heineken and AB InBev generated 12%, 6% and 1% of their profits in the region in 2010, respectively, according to Bernstein.
The shortage of major assets for sale is pushing up valuations in the beer industry. Heineken's offer values APB at 21 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to UBS. This is higher than the 15.8 multiple that AB InBev is paying to buy out the half it doesn't already own in Grupo Modelo SAB of Mexico in a $20 billion deal announced last month, and far above the 12.6 average multiple paid in dozens of global beer deals since 1999, UBS says.
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
Copyright © 2012 Dow Jones Newswires
Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/07 ... z22C9SgNnE
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